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Chartbook 238: Making & remaking the most important market in the world. Or why everyone should read Menand and Younger on Treasuries.

“The market for U.S. government debt (Treasuries) forms the bedrock of the global financial system.  The ability of investors to sell Treasuries quickly, cheaply, and at scale has led to an assumption, in many places enshrined in law, that Treasuries are nearly equivalent to cash. Yet in recent years Treasury market liquidity has evaporated on several occasions and, in 2020, the market’s near collapse led to the most aggressive central bank intervention in history. … a high degree of convertibility between Treasuries and cash generally requires intermediaries that can augment the money supply, absorbing sales

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Chartbook 237: Whither China? (4): Zero-Covid myths, dynamic clearing & the Omicron crisis of 2022

Politicized memory plays strange tricks. To listen to influential Western voices in 2023 you might imagine that China emerged in December 2022 from long confinement in a zero-COVID prison, a regime dictated by the vanity of Xi Jinping, a regime which inflicted years of comprehensive and repressive lockdowns on a hapless population and revealed the threat posed by the unfettered power of the CCP.  This is how Adam Posen begins his much-discussed Foreign Affairs article:  After three years of stringent restrictions on movement, mandatory mass testing, and interminable lockdowns, the Chinese government had suddenly decided to abandon

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Chartbook 234: Whither China? Part III: Policy hubris and the end of infallibility

China’s economy is in trouble because its authoritarian demons are catching up with it and paralyzing the private sector.  China’s economy is in trouble because its growth model exhausted itself and entrenched power structures make it hard to shift gear.  The distinction between the “authoritarian impasse” and “structural Keynesian” interpretations of China’s economic situation is clear enough.  Both are very powerful explanations rooted in well-established social scientific models – institutional economics and Keynesian macro, respectively.  The “authoritarian impasse” model focuses on property rights and the supposed inevitability that at some point an authoritarian regime will

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Chartbook 233: Whither China? Part II – Posen v. Pettis or “authoritarian impasse” v. “structural dead-end”

In interpreting China’s current economic difficulties fundamental issues of analytical approach are at stake, which I have started a Chartbook mini-series to address the issue.  What might be called the “authoritarian impasse” (on second thoughts I’ve amended the title of Part I), an interpretation forcefully articulated by Adam Posen in Foreign Affairs, argues that China is now suffering the fate that is, in due course, inescapable for any any authoritarian regime. Hence the telling title – “the end of China’s miracle”.  This is a view rooted in a trans-historic philosophy about property rights, trust and self-binding that has

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on twitter

RT @BJMbraun: How to be an effective political economist: Laser focus on the neuralgic points of the state-market nexus, follow the money,…

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RT @Cmmonwealth: NEW: After the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a state-led green transition is no longer a “yes or no” question; it’s mo…

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RT @tedfertik: @jerometenk @monkeycageblog From 2021 but this from @thoatley @bentleyballan @JoannaILewis is excellent https://t.co/i37QjOr…

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on twitter

RT @BJMbraun: How to be an effective political economist: Laser focus on the neuralgic points of the state-market nexus, follow the money,…

Read More »

RT @Cmmonwealth: NEW: After the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a state-led green transition is no longer a “yes or no” question; it’s mo…

Read More »

RT @tedfertik: @jerometenk @monkeycageblog From 2021 but this from @thoatley @bentleyballan @JoannaILewis is excellent https://t.co/i37QjOr…

Read More »

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