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Chartbook # 130 Defining polycrisis – from crisis pictures to the crisis matrix.

In Chartbook #73, back on January 21st this year, I proposed Krisenbilder – crisis pictures – as a way of making sense of what then looked like a complicated pattern of stresses around the world scene. I proposed the schematic because it seemed a useful way of mapping interconnected forces in a heuristic way. As it turned out, it succeeding in capturing quite a lot of the dynamics that have subsequently convulsed the world. That was January 21st. The war unleashed by Russia on February 24th has added spectacularly to the scale of tension and

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Chartbook #129 Love Actually, the Columbia MA Commencement 2022 and the global future.

While sorting through a pile of clothes preparing for a summer trip, I came across the folded text of the Columbia MA Commencement speech that I had the privilege of giving this year. It brought back to me some of the emotions of May 2022. It was good to reread it. “Well, hello, graduating cohort of 2022. First things first. Congratulations on this wonderful occasion. You are taking a graduate degree from Columbia university . That is a huge deal. Let me say that again. That is a huge achievement. It has taken a lot

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Chartbook #128: Mission command – NATO’s Strangelove vision of freedom enacted on the Ukraine battlefield

Russian forces attempted to cross the Siverskyi Donets river in eastern Ukraine this month using a pontoon bridge, but their tanks and armoured vehicles were picked off by Ukrainian artillery. So they tried it again. And again. And again. The Russian army made nine attempts to cross the river in the second week of May, according to Ukrainian defence chiefs. Russia lost about 80 tanks or other vehicles and more than 400 men in the ill-fated operation … It is part of a pattern of Russian behaviour since the invasion began three months ago. By

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Chartbook 127 – The World Bank’s global take on the 1970s, stagflation and debt crises.

This week the World Bank announced that it is slashing its forecast for 2022 global growth to 2.9%, down from 5.7% in 2021. This is the sharpest deceleration in a post-recession recovery in 80 years. The baseline scenario projects a slight re-acceleration 2023, but in the event of a severe Fed tightening, an energy embargo triggered by the war and continuing COVID issues in China, that number could fall to as low as 1.5 percent. With inflation also running at record rates, comparisons are being drawn to stagflation of the 1970s. Heavy-weights like Larry Summers

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on twitter

Copper dropped below $8,000 a tonne for the first time in almost 18 months on Friday as mounting fears of recession weigh on the world’s most important industrial metal. ft.com/content/34f670… Pairs well with Chartbook #132 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-13… https://t.co/8gMLYHxwhQ

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Euro denominated bonds trading at distressed levels — with a yield above government benchmarks, or spread, of more than 10 % — now account for 8.8 % of the Ice index of euro-denominated junk bonds, compared with 1.3 % at the end of 2021. ft.com/content/e22da3… https://t.co/Nc1k3tOCm7

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Why does American inflation politics revolve so much around energy & food prices, when those items make up a smaller share of the consumption basket in US than anywhere else in the world? Why is every trip to the gas station a test of the American dream? bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2… https://t.co/Nsk0l6YDu4

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on twitter

Copper dropped below $8,000 a tonne for the first time in almost 18 months on Friday as mounting fears of recession weigh on the world’s most important industrial metal. ft.com/content/34f670… Pairs well with Chartbook #132 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-13… https://t.co/8gMLYHxwhQ

Read More »

Euro denominated bonds trading at distressed levels — with a yield above government benchmarks, or spread, of more than 10 % — now account for 8.8 % of the Ice index of euro-denominated junk bonds, compared with 1.3 % at the end of 2021. ft.com/content/e22da3… https://t.co/Nc1k3tOCm7

Read More »

Why does American inflation politics revolve so much around energy & food prices, when those items make up a smaller share of the consumption basket in US than anywhere else in the world? Why is every trip to the gas station a test of the American dream? bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2… https://t.co/Nsk0l6YDu4

Read More »

Archive

Chartbook #119: Lend-Lease & Escalation

Containers of Dodge trucks awaiting shipment to Russia under the lend-lease agreement, August 1943. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.; Alfred T. Palmer, photographer (LC-USE6-D-002838) In 2022, we wait with bated breath to see how Putin

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Chartbook #117: Nazi billionaires

Source: Harper Collins Journalist and historian David de Jong started work at Bloomberg just shortly after Zucotti park was violently cleared of protestors, on the orders of Mike Bloomberg, his new boss. As he describes

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