In Chartbook #113 I raise issue of decline in Jp demand for USTR as result of hedging costs due to yen/$ deval. Huge problem for Fed? Not necessarily. Could be a goldilocks scenario in which it reinforces Fed action. I should have said that. But there are also overshoot scenarios twitter.com/policytensor/s…
As Fed raises i.r. unleashes pressure across world. EM/LIC feel it. Fx markets, yen/$ -> calculus of Jp investors in USTR. Will this lead to an immediate crisis? No. But blowback is qualitatively different because impacts core US markets. Chartbook #113 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/k7xZzEDzis
@policytensor @stevehouf You are right. There is a goldilocks scenario one could develop here in which $-strengthening and Japanese pullback is synergistic. But there is also a more disorderly scenario which folks e.g. @matthew_pines seem to be worried about. I should have spelled out both options.
In the 2020 crisis the largest of dollar liquidity provided by Fed was taken by Bank of Japan, an indicator of its Japan’s importance in global dollar system. What then are implications of dramatic 30% devaluation of yen v. $ since 2021. See Chartbook #113 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/acoH0KGDtZ
If rather than speculating in Fin-Fiction mode about future currency systems, we stay with the troubles of the actually existing dollar system it is amazing that the plunging value of the yen is not getting more attention. Chartbook #113 on ramifications. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/u1ugZNrByN
RT @Caro_LM: What about Greece? Charting a future beyond the debt crisis , by @adam_tooze and a jaw-dropping graph adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11……
As the Fed tightens, this generates tougher conditions for all borrowers hurting fragile low-income worst. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-10… It is also shifting the exchange rate of $ and yen which may blow back to US by way of Jp demand for US Treasuries. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/AA6BEl0J9E
RT @DianeSwonk: “Might the uncoordinated stance of the Bank of Japan and the Fed by unleashing a severe yen devaluation slash Japanese dema…
As the Fed raises rates the entire global dollar system comes under pressure. Some parts suffer collateral damage. But others may blow back on the US. Chartbook #113 on plunging Japanese yen and its implications for US Treasury market. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/r2DPvyE3wR
Unicorns can be found in 45 countries. Over 1,000 trot the globe; nearly half are outside America. The share of all vc flowing into American startups has declined from 84% two decades ago to less than half.https://t.co/3hg3UAxu4g https://t.co/L7VKzrkqDv
The ruble is notionally back to pre-war levels v. $ Yen has devalued by 30% since 2021. Guess which one is attracting all the attention! Guess which one matters more for the functioning of the actually existing global $-system! adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/KEdrkrLi4X
Can Yemen’s precarious ceasefire last? Of Yemen’s 30m people an estimated 377,000 have died from fighting, hunger and disease. The un says 17m go hungry. Three-quarters rely on aid to survive. economist.com/middle-east-an… https://t.co/KLorPMJBgq
RT @i_aldasoro: New @adam_tooze on the dollar system. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11…
How booze bans – no beer no waste yeast extract – and water supply outages are threatening South Africa’s Marmite supply economist.com/middle-east-an… https://t.co/oQsog5lqBM
Whilst the future of ruble attracts all the attention, the yen has devalued by almost 30 % since 2021 v. $ virtually without comment. Chartbook #113 on a truly important fault line in the dollar system. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/wxQ4BK0vEn
Metabolism, digested: On April 12th work started on demolishing Tokyo’s Nakagin Capsule Tower, following a long but ultimately futile battle to preserve it. economist.com/asia/an-ode-to… https://t.co/PLAB5wZeDo
The plunging yen and the dollar-system, Chartbook #113 just dropped. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11…
When new Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif & his brother were last in power, they were instrumental in setting up the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a package of investment from Pakistan’s “iron brother” in ports, power plants and other infrastructure. economist.com/asia/2022/04/1… https://t.co/4mp4dYOPSc
Latin America holds more 1/3 of world’s Catholics, but their numbers are shrinking. In 1995 80% of LatAm identified as Catholic. Today just 56% do. Since 1995 evangelicals’ share of the regional population rose from 3.5% to 19%, economist.com/the-americas/2… https://t.co/mM6uzXrO4t
“We have seen a substantial share of what used to be the social safety-net migrate from the public-expenditure side of the federal ledger to being run through the tax code,” @GordonGrayDC quoted in @TheEconomist economist.com/united-states/… https://t.co/Iv7KTfrjsO
The 1040 form, America’s basic document for personal-income-tax reporting, came with just one page of instructions when introduced in 1913 economist.com/united-states/… @TheEconomist Article in praise of RS makes a nice contrast to @OnesandToozePod this week foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/ones-… https://t.co/I5oQU5FdxR
Adding up the damage. @KyivSchool estimates of property damage in war so far cited by @TheEconomist economist.com/briefing/2022/… https://t.co/wQvefG9d3S
300,000 Ukrainian refugees have so far chosen to stay in Warsaw and its suburbs. In just a month the population of Warsaw has increased by 17%. economist.com/by-invitation/…
Important essay in @TheEconomist on China’s new innovation regime and industrial policy. economist.com/finance-and-ec… https://t.co/jXe2MPHEUt
RT @policytensor: You think America is divided along partisan lines now? Here's a county-level map of the 1920 election. That's what we cal…
RT @CstchUcla: Our newest event will be on The Politics of Inflation featuring @IsabellaMWeber, @abenanav, and Tim Barker at 1pm PST this c…
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RT @CarnegieEndow: As the war in Ukraine shocks the global economy, how the world deals with debt crises in Sri Lanka and Tunisia could be…
RT @jrroszman: Hard to see these tins of fish at the Skibbereen market and not think of @adam_tooze recent revelation on @OnesandToozePod.…
Price of semi truck trailers is exploding! thedailyshot.com/2022/04/14/bus… https://t.co/Z07zcPNFjb
How is maternal mortality in the US so astonishingly high? thedailyshot.com/2022/04/14/bus… https://t.co/FFcSU3IQTS
Perhaps it should be no surprise that carbon pricing was never really a goer in the US! thedailyshot.com/2022/04/13/rea… https://t.co/tRGKDJZgRh
RT @Phil_Free_: The West Asian Polycrisis – From Afghanistan to Lebanon, by @adam_tooze adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-56…
Impact of a $10 price hike on current account in % of gdp. Bad news for Lebanon, N African importers and Caribbean. thedailyshot.com/2022/04/13/rea…
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