ADAM TOOZE

Behold the shifting dot plot curves: So this is how forecasts of FOMC members of the FOMC’s own likely position at end ’22, ’23. ’24 shifted btw sep 2019 and June 2022. Its meta-meta-meta thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/LpKN3rXCcA

“Bailan” – let it rot How China’s youth are describing their miserable job prospects as big employers cut back on hiring especially in tech. H/t @rwmcmorrow Nian Liu ft.com/content/cc3e25… https://t.co/YPertNYUtq

BoJ is the last QE-central bank standing and defending its yield target requires it to buy more and more bonds. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/b8e6L5IfJL

I get that choices for Fed are getting tougher as @colbyLsmith lays out in this nice piece. But in what world is what the FOMC Is currently expecting for 2023 a “hard” landing? Unless their forecasts are totally out of whack they are expecting a slowdown. ft.com/content/541722… https://t.co/rdy335IlfM

Surging imports from China and energy prices have tipped Eurozone as a whole from the sustained and highly anomalous trade surplus of post-crisis era into an even larger deficit. Data from @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/WuOPsEWZtu

Fed interest rate hikes to curb Agg Demand are certainly a blunt instrument but are they a sledgehammer @EthanYWu @rbrtrmstrng or more like a smothering wet towel loosely applied (for now)? Fed unemployment projection up by < 0.5% Mar v. June. ft.com/content/26f391… https://t.co/A1GGgPx3MG

RT @Danske_Research: Bank of Japan meeting tonight. BoJ is "last man standing" after the ECB pre-announced rate hikes at its June meeting.…

RT @Shahinvallee: Great speech linking monetary policy action to counter fragmentation to government actions. « PEPP stabilized spreads, on…

RT @elinaribakova: Ukraine received $6.8 bn in aid since the beginning of the war (lhs below). Russia received ~$100bn in current account s…

If the Sorbonne speech isnt @Isabel_Schnabel "whatever it takes"-moment, I don't know what is. twitter.com/Isabel_Schnabe…

RT @Isabel_Schnabel: My commencement speech, including the slides, on “Unity in diversity – Challenges for monetary policy in a currency un…

So this is really telling: @Lars_Feld personal advisor to German Finance Minister Lindner applauding simplistic quantity-theoretic critique (sic) of ECB support for Italy and blaming "refusal to reform". Seriously folks do we really want to refight those battles? twitter.com/Lars_Feld/stat…

Turns out that when Italian spreads v. Bunds pop to 2.2% and Italian 10yr yields go only as far as 4% folks at the ECB get anxious pdq. @jonsindreu wsj.com/articles/to-pl… https://t.co/TU3WUOtUVe

And so the latest round of eurozone improvisation begins. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/Dy3Yln19AF

@ann123fitz Thank you!

RT @heimbergecon: Many just seem obsessed with the dangers of a “wage price spiral“, independent of what actually happens out there. Little…

RT @policytensor: Fantastic military-intellectual history from @adam_tooze. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-12…

Mini-series on the ideological incubator of the Ukraine war: Chartbook #128 on NATO’s “mission command” discourse adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-12… Chartbook #123 on the Javelin as gizmo adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-12… Chartbook #120 the arsenal of democracy Chartbook #119 on Lend Lease 2.0 https://t.co/qe6RFyBm8G

RT @TedGnuchev: Aside from vision of military freedom it accidentally gives insight to some shocking, murky and strange events in war. What…

RT @MarieLamensch84: If you thought you didn’t want to learn about the economics of bomb shelters, you were wrong. Listen to ⁦@adam_tooze⁩…

@lugaricano Thank you!

NATO-taught "Mission command" has been touted in @TheEconomist @FT @TheAtlantic as secret sauce in Ukraine’s successful defense against Russian assault. But what is the origin of that model of military leadership? Chartbook #128 traces a twisted path. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-12… https://t.co/ffRAOZ4giH

RT @M_C_Klein: "If Ukraine’s forces really are influenced by the 'mission command' model they have learned from NATO this is in fact the fi…

RT @econundertow: @adam_tooze Tooze looks at the US' strange romantic nostalgia for the German Wehrmacht and its combat leadership. Ironi…

Chartbook #128 just dropped on Mission Command and NATO’s Strangelove vision of military freedom. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-12… https://t.co/QSPq8yUwCk

Mentions of “recession” in the Fed’s Beige Book surged in the latest report. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/10/eur… https://t.co/XMvpPU34b3

Investors in Wednesday’s 10-year Treasury bond reopening — at 3% the highest-yielding since 2018 — offered tepid demand. Submitted bids for 2.41 times the amount offered, which was below the average of 2.5 times in the past six reopenings. @JonathanJLevin bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… https://t.co/IoXNLGh13S

"Since the bottom of the market in the Covid month of March 2020, the biggest mining and metals stocks, mostly quoted in London, have enjoyed an epic rally.” This @johnauthers column is excellent. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… https://t.co/YWzpMhmOUE

Unleaded petrol is above $5 in 16 states and DC = critical political issue in the US. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… https://t.co/FznQrthxr4

"inflation in the euro zone has come as much more of a surprise than in the rest of the world” with the scale of the energy price shock being completely unanticipated. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… https://t.co/EDDgHH8pLS

"The move in European fixed-income markets has already been seismic. The rise in 10-year German bund yields over the last six months has been the largest this century” @johnauthers bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… https://t.co/q1T5MBj8oV

Mexico’s government has committed four times more in Covid recovery funds to fossil fuel projects than to renewables, ft.com/content/00a8ad… https://t.co/t6SlfjADDV

In 2018, U.S. Special Operations chief Gen. Raymond Thomas described how U.S. pilots’ communications were regularly “knocked down” in Syria in the “most aggressive” electronic warfare environment on the planet. apnews.com/article/russia… https://t.co/Rsy8yzwWzZ

Another big inflation print in the US is really not what team-"soft landing" needed. ft.com/content/91b9c0… https://t.co/2XqTaeRfCc

Turkey’s 5yr CDS is at rates not seen since 2008. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/10/eur… https://t.co/hI29A2ww49

Consumer sentiment declined by 14% from May, continuing a downward trend over the last year and reaching its lowest recorded value, comparable to the trough reached in the middle of the 1980 recession sca.isr.umich.edu https://t.co/WsQj9ZwdRm