ADAM TOOZE

America's teaching workforce remains a quarter of a million below the pre-COVID peak. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/X16qrwhmnN

High frequency data indicates that if the Fed is aiming to produce a softening in the US labour market, the measure are having their intended effect! https://t.co/8cUva6e37J

Wells Fargo is predicting a recession in the US starting in Q2 2023 thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/37jHNnpCI4

The Philly Fed manuf numbers and the ISM Manuf index track each other closely and the Philly number is currently pointing towards contraction. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/reciyQS6qd

There has been a remarkable undershoot of births in the US relative to a series of forecasts. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/ap5zpSy5PN

The US oil industry seems in no rush to restore pre-COVID levels of output. Still 1 m barrels down -> hence the demand from Biden admin to raise production asap. No sense that we need to seize every opportunity to shift the fossil fuel status quo. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/NZSKgeWvna

Have agricultural commodity prices peaked? @CapEconGlobal is optimistic. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/ygmrM2n9CD

Despite discounts and reduced volumes, the surge in energy prices -> Russian fossil fuel revenues are up 40% yoy @StatistaCharts via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/h6VXnOrpVn

Having supported the Russian banking system through the initial shock of sanctions, the central bank has largely wound up its emergency programs. Invaluable data from @IIF thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/V2VSo1bb39

If I read this @IIF data correctly, about 1/3 of Russian bank assets are in hands of entities that have not, so far, been hit by sanctions. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/HBuY7UCfo3

Since 2018 Hong Kong’s economy has been floundering. Is it poised for a recovery? @alpinemacro via @SoberLook https://t.co/U6THLPto8b

Whereas in 2020 China offered a substantial yield premium over US Treasuries, now the balance is reversed. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/SmbInLOmle

China’s uneven rebound from the double shock of COVID is mirrored in figures for car sales. @PictetAM via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/uFRwWEpGxi

China’s retail sales tell a story of the jagged and uneven recovery. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/cfKNzFnOgw

"t remains true, as it has for a long time, that the WTO’s biggest achievement is keeping itself alive.” @alanbeattie ft.com/content/ae5599… https://t.co/wpYXbKU5fc

Average interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped by more than half a percentage point to 5.78% from 3.2%, the highest level since November 2008, according to mortgage provider Freddie Mac. = sharpest weekly increase since 1987. ft.com/content/6606dc… https://t.co/eKhAO9XBmE

Roughly $100bn of junk debt now trades with a spread of more than 10 percentage points above Treasuries, a commonly used definition of distress and a sign of how risky it is to lend to those companies, ft.com/content/79ddfe… https://t.co/Qt8YGtndad

RT @jamiemartin2: “Structural adjustment is not just a kind of distant relative of empire, but its direct descendant.” Huge thanks to @dan…

German consumer confidence is now at a lower level than in wake of 2020 COVID shock! twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF…

“US stocks have suffered the biggest year-to-date losses since at least the 1960s,” @BlackRock ft.com/content/4c6b17… https://t.co/PsBTuxqAhD

RT @TalbotImlay: Congrats to Martin Horn on his new book. It's part of a wave of exciting political economic scholarship on the interwar ye…

RT @drerictmiller: Yangshuo, 1989 https://t.co/FXIrizUtxF

RT @ftdata: Men stepping up at home is key to boosting birth rates on.ft.com/3xykgP8 https://t.co/TI4vEUr8M9

RT @JoanneNova: This is the whole last ten years of the renewables revolution. Over one million megawatts of renewable energy was installed…

The negative retail number for May in the US was bad news but is US consumer spending rotating out of goods and towards services? @rbrtrmstrng ft.com/content/e5ad6a… https://t.co/qtLcYb8mXb

US real estate may be about to emerge as a major recessionary force: "Sales of existing homes are declining, but not as fast as those of new homes, which have fallen off a cliff along with housing starts” @rbrtrmstrng ft.com/content/e5ad6a… https://t.co/McnFofv6r3

RT @colbyLsmith: @adam_tooze Thanks Adam! I think the issue is in the forecasts, according to many economists, who are of the view that une…

RT @OnesandToozePod: We 💚 our listeners. Thank you to everyone who sent in questions and feedback—we love hearing from you— and, as @Camero…

RT @jraimo: Missed this earlier (h/t @adam_tooze): Christopher Clark (@Clarkstopher), The geopolitics of revolution in 1848 (2017 lecture,…

RT @alexramage1: @adam_tooze really good episode of @OnesandToozePod. Was interested in the polling discussion. Is there a reason why an ec…

Given the dramatic tightening in US housing finance @PiperSandler is now predicting house price deflation in 2023. That might take us into the territory of a genuine hard landing! thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/CcecsSfXhn

US home affordability index dropped to lowest level in 15 years! thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/CFkBOsCy4o

No tightening? The US 30yr conforming mortgage rate has risen from just over 3% to firmly above 6% in six months. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/45J0xinMpM

The big bad US retail number for May 2022 was enough to tip the Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast “prediction” for Q2 2022 to zero. Data from @SoberLook as ever! thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/bJn7pxsmlv

Why the US consumer is such a critical force. Every month since start of 2021 US retail sales have run > $650bn. Also why a single weak number like in May 2022 is very bad news. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/aY8BQhOXEY

If we do get inflation back to < 3% for 1/2% rise in unemployment and a 1% drop in growth why are we calling this a hard landing? Harder, sure! But certainly NOT Volcker, NOT a crash-landing. It would be confirmation of technocratic vision of cb. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/62uWfx9sKp