ADAM TOOZE

Forecasters still predicting inflation to peak in Q3 2022. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/15/wom… https://t.co/QgDYtPkPtT

Post-Covid, American women are returning to work, 350k American men have not. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/15/wom… https://t.co/tbs16wXtad

The current surge in US prices finally puts them ahead of the 2% trend projected forward from 2012. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/15/wom… https://t.co/Fdr3lq3YBF

Will McConell & GOP kill plans to lavish $52 bn in subsidy on onshoring microchip capacity to the US. Lobbying by industry is completely unabashed. "No subsidies, no $20bn investmen in Ohio", says Intel. ft.com/content/0e2906… https://t.co/JYVCt5YTsb

Miami realtors see a sharp uptick in interest from affluent Chilean, Peruvians and Colombians in wake of left-wing electoral surge. ft.com/content/567ccc… https://t.co/jJCqYi7epy

“That is not going to happen.” Going to be interesting to see how the relationship btw José Antonio Ocampo Colombia's new Finance Minister and left-wing Pres Gustavo Petro works out. ft.com/content/9eaf9a… https://t.co/TDlNTCfPi5

Amidst gas and recession worries, investors are piling on bets against the euro eying the possibility of a plunge to 0.95 or 0.9 v. the $ ft.com/content/bfd4e6… https://t.co/m6Lryvw7Bz

In a sign of desperation property developers in some parts of China have in recent weeks promised to accept stocks of garlic — as well as watermelons, wheat and barley — as down payments from farmers on new apartments. ft.com/content/2eef1d… https://t.co/yiGuM6NjUU

China mortgage boycott: Hundreds of thousands of buyers have halted mortgage payments on more than 200 unfinished property projects in China this week, aggravating a property sector crisis that has dragged down economic growth. ft.com/content/1fab4b… https://t.co/98x0lsUMgx

As hedge funds have sold off positions momentum has developed against metal ores and agricultural commodities. ft.com/content/bdf6ef… https://t.co/q9VRN9WBQz

Thirty-one Chinese cities are under full or partial lockdowns, affecting 247.5mn people in regions accounting for about 17.5 per cent of the country’s economic activity. With rising case # will Shanghai and Guangdong be locked down again? ft.com/content/bb302e… https://t.co/mMaEY63yeI

No recession, just! "China’s economy narrowly escaped a contraction in Q2 as the fallout from President Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policy stoked expectations that Beijing would inject hundreds of billions of dollars of stimulus to shore up growth." ft.com/content/bb302e… https://t.co/BPW2RfRsVY

Overwhelming majorities across all of Germany’s major parties for support of Ukraine even in face of higher gas prices. twitter.com/carlomasala1/s…

RT @CarloMasala1: Wow. Ich gestehe, dass ich positiv überrascht bin. Eine Mehrheit der Deutschen ist bereit, die Ukraine auch dann zu unter…

Italy in crisis, American inflation politics, oil prices and Carl Schmitt's bungalow on Chartbook adamtooze.substack.com/p/italy-in-cri…

Top Links #84: Italy in crisis, American inflation politics, oil prices and Carl Schmitt's bungalow on Chartbook adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-84…

Interesting this: Oil prices are off peaks but petrol prices continue to climb. That sucks feedstock refinery products into gasoline production, driving up costs for other petrochemical production e.g. of plastic car parts etc. ft.com/content/3f2297… https://t.co/i01C0s1BK9

G7 & EU have announced official financing commitments to Ukraine of $29.6bn. So far disbursed $12.7bn to country. EU has promised 9bn, but may go on August break (SIC!) before settling deal. Seriously, history can wait for your long summer vacation plans! ft.com/content/141a9e… https://t.co/m7byym9wvP

Euro may be at historic lows against dollar but it is in fact quite strong against a basket of other currencies. ft.com/content/f3043f… https://t.co/0BCzzQxHJz

Martin Wolf's latest on inflation ft.com/content/2022df… Pairs well with Chartbook's #134 and #133 on the political economy of inflation adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-13… adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-13… https://t.co/nyJdRHvnjr

Euro has fallen to parity against $ for 1st time since 2002, reviving memories of difficult early years, when it fell so low traders dubbed it the “toilet currency” and major central banks launched a concerted intervention to instill faith in the project. ft.com/content/f3043f… https://t.co/hHUNHJPMJF

Did you know that the peace sign is the combination of the flag semaphore for N and D, which spells nuclear disarmament? h/t my friend Elaine Fong. https://t.co/akCsTmfIT5

RT @maxinefowe: The fantastic and incredibly funny @DanielaGabor on how states became collateral factories in European repo markets and how…

RT @hicatwu: time to travel now that conversions are easy! https://t.co/zirx38qo3j

If I read this right, then in the last couple of months the probability assigned to a recession in the eurozone in the near future seems to have doubled. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/11/gov… https://t.co/KpQpTfyAi5

Wage growth for nonsupervisory workers appears to have peaked. The slowdown is driven predictably by the end of the surge in wages in the leisure & hospitality sector. Great data from @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/07/11/gov… https://t.co/INuOelrhvV

If there is a great resignation anywhere in the US labour market it is in education. That tells us something about American society, politics and their priorities! thedailyshot.com/2022/07/11/gov… https://t.co/6cbOFjZVAJ

Reducing biofuel production will free up maize but not directly relieve the shortage of wheat, unless maize is shifted into animal feed, where it could substitute for wheat. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/08/qua… https://t.co/RfsgEG8mM0

Energy transition, Tesla Slump and US immigration on Chartbook adamtooze.substack.com/p/energy-trans…

Top Links #83: Energy transition, Tesla Slump and US immigration on Chartbook adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-83…

The surge by China's low-cost EV champion BYD is making a serious dent on Tesla's deliveries. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/08/qua… https://t.co/LczccULDt5

US coal exports set to surge. How long before Manchin claims that the future will make US coal great again? When the truth is the fate of the industry is driven by global supply and demand factors. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/08/qua… https://t.co/nS1vWCYccz

Mexico should have been well- positioned to profit from China-US uncoupling. But it has not. Asian countries other than China increased their share of US manufactured goods imports from 12.6 per cent to 17.4%. Mexico barely budged. ft.com/content/7fc2ad… https://t.co/Pec6bmPJiR

European gas futures are surging to levels last seen in February 2022. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/08/qua… https://t.co/Mx58B35ORJ

There is something rather jarring about having a mundane time series for service sector employment growth in modern China mapped onto a historical timeline that includes the trauma of the Great Leap Forward! thedailyshot.com/2022/07/08/qua… https://t.co/excTP395lw

Apparently there IS evidence now for actual onshoring to the US at least Piper Sandler thinks so. Striking how it is concentrated in manufacturing, vehicles, engineering and spread across retreat from China, Germany and Japan! thedailyshot.com/2022/07/08/qua… https://t.co/97L3DNdbJC