ADAM TOOZE

@policytensor Hey. I get to dabble too! I like “feeling” this stuff a bit. My mind is elsewhere right now.

The evolution in @DuncanWeldon thinking about the 1970s analogy from this in May duncanweldon.substack.com/p/that-70s-show To this in June duncanweldon.substack.com/p/why-this-mig… Is fascinating. His substack is excellent!

"the defining feature of Britain’s economy in the 1970s was a sense that everything was going wrong at once” I like this by @DuncanWeldon duncanweldon.substack.com/p/why-this-mig…

RT @fxmacroweekly: Great collection of charts for the weekend! Chartbook #132 Nowcasting – the immediate outlook for the US economy , by…

Chartbook #132 just dropped on the slowdown under way in the US economy and the “outlook” for Q2 2022. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-13… https://t.co/C1SQ6ejEgg

adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-13…

“Recovery” in US trade balance makes a negative Q2 GDP number and thus a technical recession less likely. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/29/rob… https://t.co/k40OqDTqEl

Look at data like this and you realize that outside electricity generation and on a global scale the energy transition has really barely begun. @Gavekal

US real disposable income has now fallen to levels last seen before COVID. Practically no real growth over a two-year period. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/01/the… https://t.co/XM2wWRw8cp

Real personal income ex transfers in the US is now growing on a trend which, to the naked eye at least, appears to break in

Real US personal spending in May 2022 fell below trend. More signs of slowdown? thedailyshot.com/2022/07/01/the… https://t.co/RHMb3GyDYL

@mathijsbouman Fair point. Let me add a question mark!

The fact that tourism contributes a smaller share to Greek GDP than it does to Spain or Portugal’s is evidence for a truly remarkable failure!

As a result of the sudden and unexpected surge in prices real wages as deflated by CPI are down on pre-COVID period. But surely CPI

Railroad loading of cyclical raw materials like steel, wood, paper etc point to a slowdown in pace of production in the US in 2022. Old

Not since the one-child policy has a national strategy touched nearly every individual in China as zero Covid has. ft.com/content/8f4b6e… https://t.co/hQgfiko8iJ

This has been the worst start of the year for Treasuries since 1788. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/30/rec… https://t.co/AAqh4njmVC

Since c. 2008 the car ownership rate in China’s cities has quintupled. Can Xi’s regime maintain the loyalty of this middle-class group? ft.com/content/8f4b6e… https://t.co/aXSSAPuMRS

China and NL share a common attitude to bicycling as a key mode of short-range urban mobility. Its safe and obvious. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/30/rec… https://t.co/IYxQnCPHrA

Unemployment for urban young people in China stands at 18%, two times higher than in 2018! Is zero covid really plausible faced with numbers like

3.5 m low-income households in the US are behind with rent and concerned that they will be evicted in the next few months. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/qVLoELVj5k

Fancy buying Carl Schmittt’s bungalow? Will set you back no more than 240k Euros! twitter.com/Tris_wiss/stat…

Sweden’s consumer confidence numbers are bad right now, but also make sense historically. German consumers, by contrast, seem only just to have realized what era

The giant US housing market looks to be cooling rapidly. Mortgage applications to purchase a home dropped sharply last week and are now down 24%

This on Mission Command and Auftragstaktik armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Milit… Pairs well with Chartbook #128 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-12… https://t.co/yw8zM1nkNS

RT @BungaCast: "What if history was restarted but on the other axis of modern history-making? Not class struggle, but war?" @adam_tooze in…

RT @HerreraMilHist: One of my rare ventures into the modern era, but not without a bit of history. Many thanks to @ArmyUPress "History, M…

By contrast with life insurers, US public pension systems have shifted away from fixed-income securities as interest rates fell. Moodys via daily shot newsletter from

Though the trend is pessimistic, we are still a LONG WAY from the Bloomberg consensus forecast predicting a recession in the US in 2023. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus…

Oil demand in 2021, though higher than in 2020 and helping to drive the price surge, was still considerably below pre COVID trend at the

Striking that the recession in fossil fuel Capex after 2014 was so much more pronounced in oil than in either gas or coal. Unless my

Energy Capex as a % of operating cash flow is at historic lows. A lot hinges on how you explain this. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/VkOyCMuPqs

Over the next five year Fitch expects global steel prices to retreat – as growth in China slows – but to remain at historically elevated