Bond vigilantes, 1994 and the Bond market massacre Chartbook Newsletter #14 just posted. Sign up here: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/JJgTn05nYg
Since bond vigilantes are very much in the news right now e.g. @RobinWigg excellent piece ft.com/content/542d61… Lets talk about 1994 and the great bond market
RT @MattZeitlin: the bond vigilantes are calling from inside the house (fed) twitter.com/adam_tooze/sta…
Since bond vigilantes are very much in the news right now e.g. @RobinWigg excellent piece ft.com/content/542d61… Lets talk about 1994 and the great bond market
In 1994 after the great bond market massacre of that year Clinton advisor Carville said he wanted to be reincarnated as the bond market? But
In the last couple of weeks, as financial markets have digested the implications of Democrat control of Congress and a giant second stimulus, US government Treasuries have sold off and yields have moved sharply upwards.
This has unleashed a wave of discussion about the return of bond vigilantes. See for instance Robin Wigglesworth’s excellent piece in the FT.
The phrase “bond vigilante” is normally attributed to Ed Yardeni a Wall Street economist who coined it in the 1980s to describe the role of bond markets in disciplining governments.
Are bond vigilantes real? Yardeni himself suggests that as far as the US were concerned 1994 was the main case in point. Does that hold
RT @DuncanWeldon: Fantastic edition of Chartbook in which Adam puts on his contemporary financial historian hat and goes in search of the b…
Bond vigilantes, 1994 and the Bond market massacre Chartbook Newsletter #14 just posted. Sign up here: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/wXRVrpdLmK
If taken at face value this is staggering. In Dec 2020 40% of US adults self reported symptoms consistent with depressive or anxiety disorder! Up
US economy grew in both Q4 2020 and Q1 2021. The EZ not so much. @OxfordEconomics When are European capitals going to wake up to
Mexico’s virus response may have been catastrophic but its vaccination program seems to be going relatively well! @OxfordEconomics via @SoberLook https://t.co/S3V1fy2mxa
S Africa’s financial outlook in 3 graphs from @SergiLanauIIF Given low growth S Arica need a painful primary surplus to stabilize debt. Planned adjustment is
The euro despite appreciating against the dollar is broadly at PPP. @Gavekal https://t.co/pj5LSlRqLc
India is bouncing back rapidly from 2020 shock BUT still far from pre-crisis trend, let alone trend pre shadow banking crisis. @SergiLanauIIF invaluable as ever.
If I read this complex chart by @SergiLanauIIF correctly: At current interest rates S Africa would need to embark on a fiscal adjustment relative to
Since 2007 US and EU consumer price inflation is on downward trajectory. @RobinBrooksIIF how does this square with idea that US does not have a
There is inflation and there is runaway inflation. Highly unusual inversion of the break-even curve tells us that markets expect a surge in inflation over
The surge in US Treasury yields has been the story of the last few weeks. Volatility has risen too, but nowhere near the levels of
Guess what will be the primary driver of recovery in Germany in 2021! Yup. EXPORTS @DeutscheBank @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2021/02/25/ame… https://t.co/vI6sThjuUS
US mortgage market has expanded 50% since 2008 with banks and Fed absorbing new issuance. @MorganStanley via @SoberLook Almost all of new mortgages are GSE
The Eurozone will bounce back in 2021 but nowhere near fast enough given impact of 2020 shock! @gavekal via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2021/02/25/ame… More grist to the
Secular stagnation in historical perspective. This is a really interesting set of slides by Backhouse and Boianovsky. Shows how idea once ran deep at Harvard/MIT
@georgeeaton Whereas Labour itself seems to be backing away from radicalism of McDonnell agenda. E.g. making totem out of Bank of England independence. Is that
@dippoliti The virus and mutation is the thing to worry about. Every available shot needs to be in a body -> raising overall resistance. Everything
“Are we at a paradigm shift? That’s what people are worried about, that history isn’t much of a guide for us now,” said Joyce Chang,
"The Gulf Stream system has weakened to its slowest pace in more than a thousand years, according to scientists, as global warming makes the powerful
Ahmed Zaki Yamani, legendary Saudi oil minister, 1930-2021 Pivotal figure in OPEC & formation of Saudi Aramco. Also wrote legislation in 1960 abolishing slavery in
With America's giant new stimulus package working its way through Congress the trans-atlantic gap in crisis response widens further. ft.com/content/21c4bd… The backdrop to Chartbook Newsletter
210 ships passed within 50km of the coast of Israel and Lebanon from February 10 to February 12 and may have been source of horrible
Representatives of Opec and western petroleum companies during talks in Vienna in 1973. Facing Yamani was a rude awakening for Western negotiators. ft.com/content/03a6b2… https://t.co/V3L8YphYbD
Folks are freaking out over yield surge but real yield has barely budged. Bad news is that for real yields to move like they did
Whereas in the US “fiscal thrust” will add 1.8% to U.S. output this year. For the euro zone, it’ll subtract 0.1%. @BloombergQuint h/t @acemaxx For
RT @hoyer_kat: 150 years ago #OTD, indemnity payments for the Franco-Prussian war were set. 1200 chests filled with specially minted Goldma…
Return of the bond vigilantes: will inflation fears spoil the post-pandemic party? Or will CB intervention dominate? Nicely hedged this by @RobinWigg ft.com/content/542d61… https://t.co/ZxENMvQNl3
Interesting this from @BachmannRudi "Politicized economics was always wanted in Germany from the political side and in particular from conservative-liberals who needed ideological counterweight to
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