ADAM TOOZE

JAKE SULLIVAN: The intelligence community’s analysis was that Russia would achieve substantial gains very rapidly. Kyiv could easily fall fast. It wasn’t just the pressure of a war starting. It was the pressure of Russia, brutally, ruthlessly succeeding politico.com/news/magazine/… https://t.co/Fvoqdx6qKQ

"much more nutritious array of snacks" How DC prepared for war. politico.com/news/magazine/… https://t.co/seEa3D5nOE

"not that climate change isn’t crucially important for all of us, but it seemed we were on the precipice of this massive geopolitical catastrophe." Carpenter on eerie feeling of OSCE meeting in late Nov 21 politico.com/news/magazine/… https://t.co/UlpJ1twCFP

"When you’ve spent your entire adult career working on Russia, there is a distinction between the plausibility of something and the shocking nature of something that is so epic that it’s going to shape your career and world politics for years to come." politico.com/news/magazine/… https://t.co/SLKaNMsiDJ

"GEN. PAUL NAKASONE: By the 11th of October ('21), I’m convinced the Russians are going to invade Ukraine. The preponderance of intelligence was different than anything we’d ever seen before." Great oral history this from @politico politico.com/news/magazine/…

Full-scale war is DIFFERENT … this oral history of pre-war period brings out so clearly why crude Mearsheimer-ism fails so badly. The step from tension & geopolitical arm-wrestling to full-scale invasion is well nigh unfathomable even as it happens. politico.com/news/magazine/… https://t.co/ZLoBlb0r7U

“What planet did this guy just walk in from?” The quotes from Haines & Milley about US discussions of impending Russian invasion in Sep/Oct are CHOICE! Check it out @tedfertik politico.com/news/magazine/… https://t.co/RIg0etQ0KY

"The charitable explanation is incompetence, but the underlying issue (in mining, in transport, in energy, and in other regulated economic sectors) is the struggle over the distribution of rents." Said about South Africa, but so applicable elsewhere. academic.oup.com/edited-volume/…

@HenzeTimon About renewables I am optimistic as far as India is concerned.

RT @meloni1961: @prospect_clark I read an interesting & enlightening article about childcare costs in the EU, just this morning https://t.c…

RT @prospect_clark: A missive to 'sound money' Labour from JM Keynes “Once we allow ourselves to be disobedient to the test of an accounta…

:Scholz was speaking at a press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who told reporters that the EU has received “no evidence” so far from the U.S. that Beijing is considering supplying lethal support to Moscow." hmmm …. politico.eu/article/china-…

Pritchett and Werker (2012) introduced a conceptual framework, structured in part around ‘the rents space’. Referenced in development literatured might this usefully be applied to UK and US, Eurozone etc, China? academic.oup.com/edited-volume/… https://t.co/Yphkj9DsFM

"With BofE doing QT, Citigroup estimates that in coming fiscal year UK government will need to borrow twice as much net cash from private investors (as opposed to its central bank) as it has in the past eight years combined." Wha could possibly go wrong? economist.com/britain/2023/0… https://t.co/2YK2UMjaug

Whither the Apple supply chain: Bloomberg and FT seem to be at odds over what tturns out to be a world historic question! @business & @FT twitter.com/georgemagnus1/…

RT @SCMPNews: ‘Like bringing a piece of Hong Kong with me’: red taxi replicas in N America scmp.com/lifestyle/arts…

RT @noahbarkin: “The world’s superpower and its rising great power are both now working from home and nourishing paranoia about each other.…

RT @MwangoCapital: 5. Kenya's Foreign exchange reserves fell by $255m to $6.6bn, equivalent to 3.69 months of import cover as of March 2, b…

RT @M_C_Klein: "Uyghurs who live outside China now number over 1mn people. Like the Tibetan and Hong Kong diasporas, many have left their h…

RT @_SidVerma: 2 types of guys via @TheStalwart 1. Liberal optimist, Ezra Klein/Noah Smith fan. Excited about growth in Southeast Asia, pa…

RT @Brad_Setser: Good point. Would be interesting to the see Ireland and Switzerland nodes in a Shin/ Si Ying Zhang style chart of say…

RT @joshchin: One question hovers above Xi Jinping’s new hand-picked leadership lineup: Will their relationships with Mr. Xi give them leew…

There really isnt one world decarbonization problem but at LEAST four distinct configurations: G7 – "transition" China – coal-to-green hairpin India – sustainable development Africa – energy by any means possible Chartbook Carbon Notes #1 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ca… https://t.co/McLmvlKQOs

The "energy transition" model derived from examples like US transport is a bad model for thinking carbon politics, democracy or otherwise. It also does not describe the challenge ahead in decarbonization. Chartbook Carbon Notes #1 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ca… https://t.co/4KrApaQYAO

The process of both decarbonizing electricity generation and doubling overall consumption of electricity by 2050 to achieve net zero, has no parallel in previous energy history. Chartbook Carbon Notes #1 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ca… https://t.co/2icfqhkhy7

"Increasingly, Sino-American relations are blighted by some of the worst aspects of the first cold war. … But this time, the (occasionally) redeeming seriousness of the American-Soviet stand-off is missing." economist.com/china/2023/03/… https://t.co/yJEETNBQLp

"The Sino-American competition is in danger of becoming a shallow, petulant parody of a cold war." economist.com/china/2023/03/…

Chartbook: North Korean GDP, Germany's broken rental market & copper worlds adamtooze.substack.com/p/north-korean…

Chinese investment of over $8bn in Indonesia in 2022 is a powerful reason for Jokowi not to push back at China to anything like the degree that some asean members and America (which invested $3bn) would like him to. economist.com/asia/2023/03/0…

The World Bank estimates the cost of the Turkish/Syrian earthquake damage at more than $34bn, or 4% of the country’s gdp. economist.com/europe/2023/03…

Mao Zedong felt he had to draw his prime minister, Zhou Enlai, close “even as he raised the whip and sometimes lashed the man he could not live without”, wrote Gao Wenqian, a historian, in a biography of Zhou published in 2008. economist.com/china/2023/03/… https://t.co/ReLKNzR7wo

RT @lucatrenta: It was a remarkably difficult thing to do, but I have just sent the complete draft of my book to @EdinburghUP. [Title is st…

RT @johnrhanger: Good morning with good news: Global EV sales will near 20 million in 2023. That will be at least 25% of global auto sales.…

The battery industry “certainly has seen the second coming of Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries LFP in recent years, and that wave is starting to move west”. e.g. of cheap and safe Chinese tech being adopted in US. ft.com/content/7548c4… https://t.co/oRVD5YVBFK

For hard to abate industries like air travel e-fuels may make some kind of sense. wsj.com/articles/can-e… But for cars where EV tech is already maturing, they look like a luxury exclusively for Internal combustion die hards. theicct.org/e-fuels-wont-s… https://t.co/6x1J9rXbfy

Germany’s Bosch, which supplies engine systems to carmakers all over the world and is regarded as a laggard in battery technology, has also lobbied for synthetic e-fuels to be considered “clean” technology by regulators. ft.com/content/23e1fb… https://t.co/lbMvqVGVrr