ADAM TOOZE

Given how blasé the West has become about COVID there is a risk that we ignore the significance of the drama in Shanghai for supply chains, on China’s own growth and on the country’s internal debate about reform. Good this by @RobinBHarding ft.com/content/e85e86… https://t.co/KFjZO78SbY

Do not bank on a fix. Sri Lanka’s meltdown is political, economic, financial & predictable IMF & China need to cooperation on a bailout that could provide model for other crises to come. ft.com/content/629d44… See Chartbook #108 on the shockwave rolling adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-10… https://t.co/MXvkuTf4hF

“You can’t have an energy transition if you’re in the middle of an energy crisis,” Discuss. Do you agree with @JasonBordoff rationalization of Biden response to the energy price shock? ft.com/content/048ea2… https://t.co/D9OW4Fzdsx

If Greece’s future through 2060 is one in which it remains at substantially lower GDP per capita than Northern Europe, this has huge implications for younger generations. Chartbook #111 fruit of a fascinating weekend of conversation with @EteronorgEn adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/n0uvEzavu8

Another day, another call for central bankers to pay attention to financial stress in commodity markets! But how big is the problem really? ft.com/content/f79459… Check out Chartbook #100 for background. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-10… https://t.co/SntaINdmNh

Say what one must about Erdogan’s financial management, Turkish industrial production is robust nonetheless! thedailyshot.com/2022/04/13/rea… https://t.co/HDl51J3wVE

Officials representing South Korea’s conservative president-elect have announced a shift in the country’s energy policy, halting a gradual nuclear phaseout plan ft.com/content/ad9fe5… https://t.co/OwIhxCEFOR

"Greece's accession to EU in 1981 was followed by twenty years of stagflation, destabilisation and ineffective economic adjustment” lse.ac.uk/Hellenic-Obser… This is one of the stark conclusions that screams out of data for Greek economy over last 50 years. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/VGy6zZowuV

Big moves in the currencies of major pieces of the global financial system is not a risk we have had to deal with much recently. But that is what is happening on the Yen-$ axis right now. Increases hedging costs and gunges up easy flow of trillions $. ft.com/content/ad9fe5… https://t.co/xf1i4e5luQ

RT @BarryHoogduin: @adam_tooze Agree, but French nuclear fleet hasn't been performing too well lately. Constant outages because of old mate…

France has credible energy system, however imperfect. An agro-industrial core with strategic value. Armed forces worth name, and nuclear deterrent. Germany lacks all of this & has silly debt brake to boot. Dont always agree with Ambrose Evans-Pritchard but do agree with this. https://t.co/cBMhoW2Q58

Would a ban on Russian gas cause a major recession in Germany? Depends how you define major. @kielinstitute says it would mean -2.2% GDP & loss of 400k jobs. ft.com/content/ad9fe5… So h/t @paulkrugman lets compare that to Greece 2010-2015 Chartbook #111 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/XEFw6TA1HJ

Bitter irony in fact that 2 conservative govs in Greece have launched giant stimulus programs – 2008 & 2020 and this time around ECB/EU have held safety net. What next beyond pandemic purchases? Chartbook #111 prompted by a dialogue with @EteronorgEn adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/nsxs34zZEQ

RT @VersoBooks: In order to perpetuate the experience of the past other than as a museum object, depoliticized and depoliticizing, it must…

Bitter irony that two times – 2008 and 2020 – conservative governments in Greece responded to severe crises with massive fiscal stimulus. In 2009 PASOK punished. This time ECB/EU provide a safety net. Chartbook #111 on long shadow of debt crisis adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/wDGPm9IbRU

Under debt surveillance regime that still defines Greece’s finances more than a decade on from 2008-15 crisis, one thing is clear: There will be no convergence with the rich North for the foreseeable future. Astonishingly stark graph from @IMFNews adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/3ZPgtxIRtC

RT @EteronorgEn: .@adam_tooze joined @gsakellaridis, director of Eteron – Institute for Research and Social Change – for a conversation in…

What about Greece? Charting a future beyond the debt crisis. Chartbook #111 just dropped Digesting a visit to Delphi and Athens courtesy of @EteronorgEn adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11…

The drawdown in the Treasury market has been extreme. So much so that some hypothesize that what goes down must … Come back up! thedailyshot.com/2022/04/12/inf… https://t.co/nlMWqpl6rH

The Shanghai lockdown in 2022 is even more draconian than that in 2020. @ExanteData via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/04/12/inf… https://t.co/3AsyjRwb6w

"Canada’s top banks more than doubled their financing of highly polluting tar sands oil to $16.8bn in 2021, despite signing up to the UN’s net zero banking alliance on greenhouse gas emissions.” @CamillaHodgson ft.com/content/970e5b… https://t.co/zTD73OQwke

Inflation pressures on EU’s eastern members are really building up. Czech Rep at 12% thedailyshot.com/2022/04/12/inf… https://t.co/xFmoHlsdxI

"in a multipolar world, we may eventually be talking about alternatives to the dollar. But we won’t be replacing it.” This by @economistmeg is excellent. ft.com/content/dec25b… Pairs well with Chartbook #107 on Fin-Fi adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-10… https://t.co/LdZ3Ub6ddC

German GDP growth forecast has halved in last 6 months! Adds to misery of Scholz government. thedailyshot.com/2022/04/12/inf… https://t.co/f0dRbQejpH

To study Ugandan game reserve animals’ reaction to massive oil project backed by France’s Total, researchers will monitor their hormones and their stress levels by collecting blood and fecal samples. ft.com/content/e16700… https://t.co/hdU3fNXwmR

Bund sell off driving long term yields firmly into positive territory has got to be a worrying sign for weaker members of the EZ! thedailyshot.com/2022/04/12/inf… https://t.co/6B6niiZapw

Lake Albert oil project has become a litmus test for large-scale oil development in the age of net zero. TotalEnergies and Cnooc are still going to great lengths, in one of world’s most sensitive ecologies in East Africa to pull oil out of the ground. ft.com/content/e16700… https://t.co/VeRudPdGAZ

US real disposable income is expected to remain below the pre-COVID trend, according to Wells Fargo. This seems like an under discussed issue! @M_C_Klein any views on this? Is inflation and lagging wage growth doing the damage here? thedailyshot.com/2022/04/12/inf… https://t.co/Sx1rSvr82t

“Inflation was a sleeping dragon; this dragon has now awoken,” said Otmar Issing. He now doesn’t like the ECB’s model which says it will calm by 2024 but insists it is time for a “broader approach” to factor in structural factors. ft.com/content/145b67… https://t.co/2Oq25rug0O

With the naked eye it is pretty hard to detect any appreciable influence of Fed rate tightening on inflation in the US since the 1980s. thedailyshot.com/2022/04/12/inf… https://t.co/3beNcarG2T

Russian steelmaker Severstal has decided not to post first-quarter results, saying that to do so would put some investors at a disadvantage because they cannot trade due to sanctions in London. How considerate! ft.com/content/56df1d… https://t.co/tif6uNeatR

According to this model at least to get core inflation down to 2% what the Fed needs to do is to curb employment cost index growth to 3%. thedailyshot.com/2022/04/12/inf… https://t.co/XB6bOjwsyt

The Russian central bank said on Monday it had temporarily suspended publishing data on foreign trade on a monthly basis in the first such suspension since 1997. Excellent column by my friends @rbrtrmstrng @EthanYWu of @FT Unhedged. ft.com/content/4f2e7d… https://t.co/THaboarD0X

Sri Lanka has a total of about $35bn in external government debt outstanding, with $7bn in payments due this year -> forcing restructuring ft.com/content/c06a76… For background check out Chartbook #108 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-10… https://t.co/cFi3xCl8P9

V. Western efforts to “artificially create a man-made default” Moscow is engaged in “payments theatre”. Fascinating language this! ft.com/content/9e248a… https://t.co/sYeadaVrd6

UN World Food Price Index continues to surge. thedailyshot.com/2022/04/11/the… Pairs well with Chartbook #47 on the global food price story, from what seems like an eternity ago. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-47… https://t.co/2DAGzJ6pCm