ADAM TOOZE

“to lose it and liberate it afterwards”? – wow a debate about forward defense is beginning in the Baltic. If NATO actually attempts to defend Estonian territory it will require huge ramp up of forces. ft.com/content/a430b1… https://t.co/8JQ7nNZep8

In Italy and Germany majorities or near majorities of the electorate favor a negotiated peace with Russia over pursuing Russian defeat even at high cost. @ECFRPower ecfr.eu/publication/pe… https://t.co/XIBlSvDteM

“The bulk of Italian public opinion is not pro-Putin and pro-Russia but they are very sceptical of the motives of Nato and the extent to which they might be inflaming the situation and making it worse.” @DrAlbertazziUK cited in @FT ft.com/content/f34eba… https://t.co/N10B196l2P

Italy’s Five Star Movement, the largest party in Draghi’s national unity government, has split 1/4 v. 3/4 btw on-msg Di Maio wing & Conte’s majority group who criticize military support for Ukraine. ft.com/content/f34eba… https://t.co/KK3OIqdzdN

As @sarahoconnor_ rightly says, it is hard to overstate the change in this structure of the UK labour market since the 1970s -> renders talk of wage-price spirals tendencious. No more than 13.7% of private employees are under collective bargaining. ft.com/content/14f797… https://t.co/LWDbLs9aKQ

POTUS "believes that at this unique moment when the war in Ukraine is imposing costs on American families, Congress should do what it can to provide working families breathing room” by suspending federal tax on petrol and diesel. = $10bn subsidy ft.com/content/1f6510… https://t.co/dS9EoMRoxF

China has huge weight as a trading partner of many EM. From robust defense of globalization by @martinwolf_ ft.com/content/fa1f3a… https://t.co/VWzJTwusQ3

“We need five years of unemployment above 5 per cent to contain inflation — in other words, we need two years of 7.5 per cent unemployment, or five years of 6 per cent unemployment, or one year of 10 per cent unemployment,” Larry Summers ft.com/content/642958… https://t.co/jCbI1goZR2

Deglobalisation? Perhaps it is changing shape, but not globalization is not reversing. @martinwolf_ in fierce form here ft.com/content/fa1f3a… https://t.co/QanNuYkOmt

"The corporate feud over satellites that pitted the west against China How a clash of cultures — and geostrategic interests — sank a German-Chinese joint venture competing in the new space race” – FASCINATING story this! ft.com/content/f1f342… https://t.co/DFqnVYnDfa

There are c. 5000 operational satellites, Satellite Industry Association says that could rise to 100k by 2030! ft.com/content/f1f342… https://t.co/F3nyFsDKjC

RT @heimbergecon: Italy is back in the news due to debates over the ECB and bond purchases. Unfortunately, there are again lots of distorte…

RT @davies_will: We’re confronting the legacies of how the 1970s were resolved, not a repeat (my piece from a few weeks ago) https://t.co/…

Point taken, but is hyperinflationary really a sensible term here? twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/…

“The nearer we are coming to winter, the more we understand Russia’s intentions,” he said. “I believe the cuts are geared towards avoiding Europe filling storage, and increasing Russia’s leverage in the winter months.” @fbirol @IEA ft.com/content/f79901… https://t.co/RkMjCqepUP

RT @LizAnnSonders: That was quick: S&P 500 Energy sector has entered its own bear market, its worst drawdown since December 2021 [Past perf…

RT @RobinBrooksIIF: What's NOT true is that Putin is cutting gas deliveries as the hard currency he gets is useless. Russia imports lots of…

RT @RobinBrooksIIF: So Putin cutting gas deliveries to Europe is a self-inflicted wound. By allowing Putin to export his oil globally, we'r…

RT @RobinBrooksIIF: The other big enabler of Putin turning the screws on Europe via gas exports is China, which is importing lots of Russia…

RT @RobinBrooksIIF: Ironically, the EU – by permitting the massive rise in Greek tankers taking oil out of Russian ports (blue) – is the bi…

The dollar surge in this tightening cycle has been particularly pronounced. Early days. But this should exercise corrective pressure both to AD and cost of living. @marketdesk via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/20/fur… https://t.co/Qv33N4aEAU

US markets are now priced for an August inflation peak in CPI at 9.1% thedailyshot.com/2022/06/20/fur… https://t.co/042LhS9W3a

Since start of market selloff, stocks and bonds have lost value to the tune of 60% of US gdp. You have got to figure that this will impact consumption and AD. Reverse wealth effect. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/20/fur… https://t.co/owQ1zNMFVJ

Are we about to see a classic, recession-predicting yield curve inversion in the US? Great charts as ever from @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/20/fur… https://t.co/tDINXBj2lL

$15.5 trillion! Record destruction of market valuation of stocks and bonds in the US since start of the year. Arguably it is book values rather than “real” wealth. But at some point this is surely gonna impact on consumption/AD-> inflation thedailyshot.com/2022/06/20/fur… https://t.co/t3FK93xqkc

Further evidence of the US manuf slowdown. Confirming regional Fed reports. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/20/fur… https://t.co/p43e2GxueX

Brazilianization in macroeconomic policy? @Alex__1789 In 2021 the Brazilian central bank led the world into the current tightening cycle. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/20/fur… https://t.co/DT84LoeD2d

Rising food, fuel and commodity prices have been good for the countries in SE Asia that export them in large quantities, whether palm oil (Indonesia and Malaysia), rubber (Thailand and Malaysia) or coal (Indonesia).  ft.com/content/d1d5f5… https://t.co/fH2XA6lEOv

China growth forecast revised down from 4.8 to 4% by @GoldmanSachs even allowing for a 1.8% policy offset. Omicron and real estate doing the damage. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/20/fur… https://t.co/zJNFzycJvX

Renewable energy — including hydro, wind and solar power and geothermal — account for 75 per cent of Kenya’s electricity generation. Hell’s Gate geothermal covers 50% of electricity need! ft.com/content/1e8c12… https://t.co/1F5qM6Kti5

Consensus growth forecast for 2023 in the euro area are now higher than the US. Does this seem plausible? Or inertia in forecasts? thedailyshot.com/2022/06/20/fur… https://t.co/G56ae0zyo4

“There’s not a lot of talk about stagflation here” – vigorous recovery in SE Asia uncouples growth both from EU/US and China’s no-COVID impasse. ft.com/content/d1d5f5… https://t.co/xdPQAmyvNz

"To economists, this sudden inversion of power constitutes a “disorder” in the social relations of production, as rising nominal wages intensify inflationary pressures.” Excellent this by Clara Mattei in @guardian theguardian.com/commentisfree/… https://t.co/G9WQ7Lvcph

As US refinery capacity has shrunk, the crack spread – gap btw crude oil and refined petrol price – has surged from 30 cents to $1.50 per gallon even as input prices have soared -> Biden demands restoration of capacity. ft.com/content/9b90b5… https://t.co/wlpMJjtxhs

@benbawan @spignal @ericlonners @PhilippaSigl I entirely agree that NOMINAL growth is the key and I am somewhat surprised that the impact of a few years of nominal growth of 5% plus are not been commented on more extensively.

“We have to make sure that we use this crisis to move forward and not to have a backsliding on the dirty fossil fuels,” von Der Leyen said, “It’s a fine line and it’s not determined whether we are going to take the right turn.” ft.com/content/a8b179… https://t.co/AXgeY5Kdf1