ADAM TOOZE

Nagel of Bundesbank recently joined heads of Dutch and Austrian cb in proposing that ECB's new spread control instrument be linked to ESM which is toxic in Italy. ft.com/content/5b6768… On Nagel's profile see Chartbook #62 on the Bundesbank- Once a Giant! adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-62… https://t.co/nCiPjW13xv

When Draghi launched Eurozone QE in 2015 one of the main effects was to insulate Spain, italy etc from fallout of Greek crisis that summer. Will the ECB's new transmissions protection mechanism do the same in even of an Italian political crisis? ft.com/content/5b6768… https://t.co/EBCutY98sJ

“If [the scheme] is going beyond the dividing line between monetary policy and fiscal policy it will be toxic politically in northern Europe,” Lars Feld, advisor to Lindner at German FinMin draws battle lines on ECB's new spread control instrument. ft.com/content/5b6768… https://t.co/afMwHckWWm

Mongolia expects Russia to begin construction of the “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline through its territory to China within two years, as Moscow moves to connect its Europe-supplying gasfields to Asia for the first time. ft.com/content/f0080b… https://t.co/kI3n9l2r37

This week 41 Chinese cities are under full or partial lockdowns or district-based controls, covering 264mn people in regions that account for about 18.7% of the country’s economic activity. Slightly up from last week, as BA.5 challenges zero covid. ft.com/content/d12159… https://t.co/filQTprZIc

"China’s daily vaccination rate — which analysts say is critical to hastening a change in its Covid policy — has remained at low levels as resources are diverted to mass testing campaigns." How to explain this irrational policy? What is best to read? ft.com/content/d12159… https://t.co/KyFCIxKj5a

“I have a hope that this week it will be possible to reach an agreement to unblock Odesa and other Ukrainian ports,” Borrell Not quite what the headline says. But EU is preparing new measures to loosen sanctions pressure on grain supplies. fingers crossed. ft.com/content/3ba433… https://t.co/3zKCqBQwdw

“make every remaining day count” to fill gas storage facilities over the next three months. IEA warns EU that stakes in the summer months are high. Cut AC usage, auction gas to industry now. ft.com/content/6821e7… https://t.co/bPitgNEE3i

"in EU default rate on speculative corporate credit was c 20% after 2001 recession, 10% after 2008, 5% in 2020." Will higher rates awaken the zombie continent? Sharma in typically hawkish form. ft.com/content/1c7bba… Pairs well with Charttbook #137 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-13… https://t.co/oa994NMJBy

EU's militaries operated 17 different main battle tanks compared to just one for US. There were 29 different naval frigates or destroyers v four different types in the US. How EU manages to spend > $220bn on defense and get so little for it. ft.com/content/0a9173… https://t.co/0exHE3MRyZ

RT @banaianshow: During #kbrs yesterday @SnowdenKen asked about yield curve control. This Substack by @adam_tooze has a nice discussion in…

@hamishms @Lazard NO it. came from @SoberLook I think.

No Russian gas this winter would, according to analysts at Swiss bank UBS, trigger a “deep recession” in Germany with almost 6 per cent wiped off GDP by the end of next year. ft.com/content/07df3f… https://t.co/pbI1DWjIBk

Chinese consumers, Old Godmother chili sauce & the EM debt crisis. on Chartbook adamtooze.substack.com/p/chinese-cons…

Top Links #85 Chinese consumers, Old Godmother chili sauce & the EM debt crisis. on Chartbook adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-85…

RT @70sBachchan: 11/ Uprising in Sri Lanka illustrates age of "polycrisis" Mask – Corona crisis. Bread – Food crisis…

Ukrainian government is angry at JPMorgan after it published an analyst note warning that attempts to impose a price cap on Russian oil could drive global prices to a “stratospheric $380/bbl” = “scaremongering" ft.com/content/ba60a1…

Year to date change in yield on EM debt picks out a list of very fragile EM borrowers. ft.com/content/5ac449… https://t.co/4sIoGRgg1e

Remarkable data on inflation in the price of US weapons 1944->1953: m1 rifle doubled in price, jeep more than doubled, 105 mm shell almost tripled. jstor.org/stable/pdf/409… https://t.co/4ZgRzz6f9Z

Fertiliser prices in Africa have risen 300%. The continent is facing a shortage of 2mn metric tons. African Dev Bank has approved a $1.5bn programme to help farmers fill the gap but warns that total production could fall by 20 per cent this year. ft.com/content/7dd4c4… https://t.co/XGi4lEfGY2

How will a rise in interest rates affect a debt-laden world? Chartbook #137 dissects the stresses in the global financial system. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-13… https://t.co/4lOBrqtBBY

RT @Frank_vanlerven: @adam_tooze This was a great read, I learned a lot. Thanks! A thought – you maybe overemphasise the statistical compon…

Chartless in Seoul: Getting to know Song Joowon's extraordinary dance-performance-video work was a high point at NMCA Seoul youtube.com/watch?v=rNKuV2… https://t.co/Gsy8UQ2JMs

Chartless in Seoul: conservative “Familism” demonstration against Seoul Queer Culture Festival today. Huge riot police presence! City had already restricted pride demonstration to a single day event. https://t.co/rK7KTSLZ68

Chartless in Seoul: fortunate to grab a cab in a summer downpour, but this one appears to be having an identity crisis! https://t.co/AGKse6QXup

Chartless in Seoul: Hito Steyerl's "Animal Spirits" video installation at NMCA is quite the most extraordinary riff on Keynes I've ever seen, featuring wolves, Spanish shepherds, reality TV, crypto & the 1936 Olympics! One for @stefeich koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20… https://t.co/SIQjhcrmHY

Chartbook #137: The regime at risk – macroprudentialism faces the test of inflation on Chartbook adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-13…

Deforestation in Brazil has picked up to rates last seen prior to 2008. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/15/wom… https://t.co/O0twiuKnzZ

US Dollar is hitting 20-year records. All the best data from @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/07/15/wom… https://t.co/iaZFNaVnvx

India's trade deficit has hit a record level. @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/07/15/wom… https://t.co/OaYhFEU34z

As the Chinese economy wobbles, global steel prices are crashing. @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/07/15/wom… https://t.co/UZQsqqzfeW

YoY China avoided recession in Q2 2022. MoM not so much. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/15/wom… https://t.co/PTGQEPvpjr

Across the regional cities of China, alarming shares of apartment construction are facing delays for completion. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/15/wom… https://t.co/y3yEyNUTAG

Czech Republic is now suffering inflation of 17%+ thedailyshot.com/2022/07/15/wom… https://t.co/8hdVLPU4hs

Almost 2/3 of American consumers are preparing for a recession by cutting back spending. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/15/wom… https://t.co/mmQU4cggun

If Bloomberg's nowcast model is to be believed, the US may already be heading into a recession. thedailyshot.com/2022/07/15/wom… https://t.co/BVUD5M3Tnv