ADAM TOOZE

Remember that back and forth in the @FT about sterling trading like an EM currency, Brexit etc … here is GBP/USD in first week of Sep 2020. thedailyshot.com/2020/09/09/dem… https://t.co/vbzX2L8DZT

Demand for new office space has COLLAPSED. Moody’s data finds zero respondents wanting to add office space. @MoodysAnalytics via @SoberLook https://t.co/tC3RoJT7kr

RT @poltheoryother: @adam_tooze @SoberLook Mark Thatcher's botched 2004 Equatorial Guinea attempt a clear case of the decline and decadence…

RT @RajaKorman: @adam_tooze @SoberLook I was once at an event in Ferris Booth Hall as an undergrad in the early 80s. Making casual conversa…

Vehicle production in Brazil has bounced back from zero. But what is the new plateau? @SoberLook https://t.co/rROFGqVf9b

Cold War was the golden age of the political coup: For much of 60s, 70s and early 80s there was one a month across world. In 1980 there was a coup somewhere in the world every 19 days. Really helps to locate my teenaged political imaginary! H/t @SoberLook economist.com/graphic-detail… https://t.co/lAMAxB26Fj

Over the last twenty years the cost of daycare/childcare in the US has doubled = twice the rate of general consumer price inflation. @chris_rexrode @laurenweberWSJ wsj.com/articles/worki… https://t.co/nLeeOghHL1

Turkish lira has now fallen well below 2018 trough. And little sign of any developments that would suggest a recovery. @SoberLook https://t.co/QQQsX5gWPH

If you care about the US economy you should care about child care. In 2018 America’s parents spent $55bn out of pocket on daycare, babysitting etc. That figure is about to surge. @chris_rexrode @laurenweberWSJ wsj.com/articles/worki… https://t.co/SSJ9GfQrXa

COVID has driven a surge in US demand for bicycles imported from … China. Data S&P via @SoberLook https://t.co/GBOxlARBrX

There has been a major shift in direction of credit growth in Chinese economy: away from real estate, to manufacturing and SME. @Gavekal via @SoberLook https://t.co/JakY0saDSD

Central bank liquidity swap lines wind down to zero by October according to @jpmorgan Via @SoberLook https://t.co/IGhnr7NvJX

RT @KFF: NEW POLL: 62% of Americans worry the FDA will rush a #CovidVaccine approval before it's safe & effective — due to political press…

“They agree on the concept. The ‘what’ is clear. The ‘how’ is not so clear,” @NickTimiraos on the struggle to define the new Fed policy. On the global ramifications I did this piece in @guardian theguardian.com/commentisfree/… https://t.co/jp10pmiqtp

BHP’s Scope 3 emissions – from the use of its coal and other minerals by customers – totaled 566.8m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent last year, bigger than Australia’s national emissions. ft.com/content/9cffda… https://t.co/zhTcLt4smR

At 230 pm European time @ecb will start press conference. As @MAmdorsky lays out it will be eagerly watched: ft.com/content/8b626c… Will ECB comment on EUR exchange rate? or even follow Fed? I map the new& unfamiliar terrain of global cb here: theguardian.com/commentisfree/… https://t.co/8kmlcEmDig

RT @owenhatherley: working on a thing about housing and planning in the great satan, not usually my chosen subject, and still wondering why…

RT @COdendahl: The best picture yet to describe German underinvestment. From #Berlin, of course. Below the warning sign it says Road damag…

"Investment-banking and trading revenues hit an eight-year high in the first half of 2020, a counterintuitive boom that shows the heavy hand of the Federal Reserve and a growing gulf between financial markets and the real economy.” @lizrhoffman wsj.com/articles/the-e… https://t.co/7UWB9zSXFd

“Amid extreme economic stress & facing sustained low growth, officials need to exercise caution in commenting on currencies. Currency protectionism, in this day of populism, is an ever present & looming threat." @sobel_mark @OMFIF apropos of ECB meeting. omfif.org/2020/09/lanes-… https://t.co/BqcgMcy8Ot

RT @SCS_PI: With a #false Malaysian hex code (#755CB7) again, #USAF RC-135W (#AE01CE) spotted engaged in close-in reconnaissance on #China,…

Btw "uncoupling from China" & "China recovery" narratives, so far it this year it is the recovery narrative that wins. Global stocks with bigger China exposure have done better. @SoberLook https://t.co/SqobOxTuR1

ECB is expected to make comments today about Euro exchange rate. @sobel_mark @OMFIF thinks this is a terrible idea! "when one authority spoke about exchange rates, it became licence for many to do so, sowing a cacophony of confusion." omfif.org/2020/09/lanes-… https://t.co/WlODU8U2Zd

One remarkable turnaround of 2020 has been swing of market sentiment towards Euro since May Franco-German deal. Given size of speculative play this is vulnerable to shocks. @Gavekal ING via @SoberLook https://t.co/Qec1WiMzy5

RT @SergiLanauIIF: Egypt's reserves were flat in July and August, a welcome sign of stabilization and confidence in the IMF program. Also a…

Really enjoyed doing this podcast with @prospect_clark updating the Shockwave narrative from @LRB in the spring. lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/… twitter.com/prospect_uk/st… twitter.com/prospect_clark…

RT @HaydnBelfield: Not a pandemic, but we released a Civ mod with another possible existential risk – artificial general intelligence. htt…

RT @jasonhickel: 2. Results: -The USA is responsible for 40% of excess global CO2 emissions. -The European Union (EU-28) is responsible…

RT @jasonhickel: I have a new paper that's out today in The Lancet Planetary Health, quantifying national responsibility for climate breakd…

@D_Shariatmadari To have his courage, his wisdom, his eloquence, his capacity for love … what a person.

RT @D_Shariatmadari: I'm very sorry to say that Elliot Dallen died on Monday, hours after we published his brilliant, life-affirming articl…

RT @rgwbk: @adam_tooze Many amateur mods add pandemics to the standard game

Chinese regulators are testing new regs for top real estate firms including Evergrande, Sunac, Country Garden Red lines: a liability-to-asset ratio < 70% net debt-to-equity ratio of under 100% cash holdings = short-term debt -> Evergrande under pressure caixinglobal.com/2020-09-02/dev… https://t.co/6kdPQr7FPf

The China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) appointed veteran Swedish economist @ErikBerglof as its first chief economist. As chief economist at EBRD, in 2009 he helped to create Vienna debt initiative for E. Europe. reuters.com/article/us-chi… https://t.co/97q3EUO5Vi

Uncoupling? In Finance? "Citigroup has become the first US bank to receive a fund custody licence in China, allowing it to provide a core service to global asset managers as they rush to participate in the opening up of the country’s financial sector." ft.com/content/86af47… https://t.co/IEeFwC68h2

Australia’s portfolio flows over the past two decades were pretty stable and positive. 2020, by contrast, was wild. Equity in. Debt out. Does this reflect yield curve control? Outflow of 9% of GDP is pretty huge. RBA via @SoberLook https://t.co/r6D9ONc6Dp