How rapidly will inflation rebound in the recovery from 2020 shock? @MorganStanley thinks it might be sooner than in previous cycles. But Fed is pledged not to preempt. @MorganStanley via @SoberLook https://t.co/8sxN52t1mr
“theory made real” In 2018 Shanghai launched an oil futures contract. Market faced stress test in April. Whereas US crude market collapsed, China’s contract stayed c. $30 -> attracted flood of shipments into China storage -> calmed market built stocks. ft.com/content/2e4c4b… https://t.co/o0UebaZdBy
Serious nudge, vaccine, lockdown: This piece on internal divisions within the Fed over corona strategy is fascinating. Now almost a week old but worth going back to. reuters.com/article/us-usa… https://t.co/e4LxOJ4R4d
China drives global copper demand & wants to minimize external shocks -> Shanghai launches new futures contract for copper open to foreign investors -> could become a new global benchmark challenging London’s dominance in metals trade. @hjesanderson ft.com/content/2e4c4b… https://t.co/felfBi1Zlb
Btw 2001 and 2010 China’s rate of TFP growth was more than respectable. Since then, it has slumped to levels that are well below normal for an economy at its stage of development. @commerzbank via @SoberLook https://t.co/EKUKg9T8Kp
"Wall Street analysts expect arrival of a vaccine to send $ sinking next year as confidence returns to global economy.” Citi doubling down on its 20% depreciation scenario = on scale of early 2000s. Likely? @EvaSzalay @colbyLsmith ft.com/content/d2a226… https://t.co/jwUOwkCIGu
In previous cycles, the Fed tightened policy well before inflation reached 2%. Now The Fed is pledge not to repeat that preemption in future. @MorganStanley via @SoberLook https://t.co/K0761AOqTI
As fiscal stimulus talks stall -> Fed’s unused credit facilities becomes key arena. Will Mnuchin and GOP Senate cancel them before 20 January. @NickTimiraos had story wsj.com/articles/polit… Important update @colbyLsmith @JamesPoliti ft.com/content/b8264b… https://t.co/jIec7ctnxA
Very few nations sourced more than half their PPE from china before the pandemic. @SimonEvenett @BaldwinRE mount spirited defense of free trade v. Accusation that it led to excessive dependence on one supplier. voxeu.org/content/revita… https://t.co/L22mIxuonc
In November 2020 – thanksgiving season! – the TEN busiest domestic flight routes in the world were ALL in Asia. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/6CyrG5wejF
Turkish central bank does bear minimum of what was needed to meet market expectations of a c. 5 % hike from 10 to 15%. Chose not to beat expectations -> faces a long slog back to “credibility” with inflationary pressures still in pipeline. ahval.me/turkish-lira/t… https://t.co/p5w5QPZf00
So Erdogan decided to fight another day: Reshuffled financial policy team and hiked interest rates. twitter.com/ahval_en/statu…
RT @loyaladvisor: Always like grabbing this photo when people emphasise the number of pages an international trade agreement is. Can yo…
Bundesbank’s Weidmann is mounting defense of CB neutrality. German Exec Board member @Isabel_Schnabel has criticized it directly. Lagarde in conversation with @PositiveMoneyEU seemed to join skeptics. But where will she ultimately come down? @MAmdorsky ft.com/content/495cc8… https://t.co/MAcHHHrjux
In this @TPpodcast_ with @HelenHet20 we wind up talking, as Helen and I tend to, about the Fed, central banking, vaccines, interest rates etc. Want more? Check out my new newsletter. Its called Chartbook. #3 out this weekend all things Fed. Sign up at adamtooze.substack.com twitter.com/TPpodcast_/sta…
UK real GDP registers a disastrous collapse in 2020. But nominal GDP contraction is much less bad. UK’s ONS uses purist definition of public sector output -> if health spending continues but ops canceled -> inflation surges -> real GDP down. @ChrisGiles_ ft.com/content/c5d72d… https://t.co/GPPmH1HdWq
"Bundesbank chief: How central banks should address climate change Jens Weidmann says we can explore requiring better risk disclosures but cannot make up for a lack of political will” Weidmann takes up cudgel against Lagarde’s push to Green the ECB. ft.com/content/ed270e… https://t.co/45D4ZE21CN
The surge in hospitalization in the US is ominous and can only deteriorate in coming days and weeks as case load mounts up. covidtracking.com via @SoberLook https://t.co/HFZ5p0WEkl
For too long we’ve been underestimating row in EU over July recovery package and rule of law provisions in Poland and Hungary. Now it is threatening to derail Green Deal too which was designed to lever Poland out of its opposition to exit from coal. ft.com/content/26df73… https://t.co/KbzrgGw4or
One of India’s first bank notes: British India’s Bank of Hindostan with the denomination of 250 sicca rupees. Though undated, it is from the period of 1823 to 1827. coinworld.com/news/paper-mon… https://t.co/qrXp9CaNxW
Ive missed @HelenHet20 and David over the summer. This was a great chance to catch up with events. twitter.com/HelenHet20/sta…
@markrlowe @HelenHet20 @TPpodcast_ Dear @markrlowe I have had your very kind comment in my head all day. Q: Why do I/we treat podcasts as ephemera when they are in fact, literally, live recordings, like a recording of music or any other performance? As such, as we know, they sometimes have truly rare energy. Hmm
Under the title Chartbook, Ive started a new series of newsletters supported by my website adamtooze.com but based out of substack. #1 and #2 are posted, #3 at the weekend will be all about the Fed/central banks etc. Sign up at adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/l0sXu06dHU
As the pandemic surges in Europe, the outlook for GDP growth in Q4 2020 has crashed. Highlights from Chartbook #2. Sign up for the new newsletter here: adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/2k3RZxghhQ
How to gauge the significance of the giant RCEP trade deal? I collect a bunch of good charts and links in this new Chartbook #2. Sign up for regular newsletter here. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-2-… https://t.co/wGeDg3IfgU
Under the title Chartbook, Ive started a new series of newsletters supported by my website adamtooze.com but based out of substack. #1 and #2 are posted, #3 at the weekend will be all about the Fed/central banks etc. Sign up at adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/vNpzsVpRGE
As the pandemic surges in Europe, the outlook for GDP growth in Q4 2020 has crashed. Highlights from Chartbook #2. Sign up for the new newsletter here: adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/xVOR02TwrB
@dennismeaney91 @bucephalus424 Thought experiment: Try that take again with one of Capa’s images of d day in front of you. Still feel right?
RT @zeithistoriker: Just becoming aware that the FT/WEF talk of a “great reset” has become a right-wing meme https://t.co/Nf6ptCWba7
RT @sdonnan: This is awful thing about expectations and economics… There were at least 10m people still out of work in October. But becau…
How to gauge the significance of the giant RCEP trade deal? I collect a bunch of good charts and links in this new Chartbook #2. Sign up for regular newsletter here. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-2-… https://t.co/SMDb0LrAYW
RT @julianborger: There you have it. Trump official told CNN the goal is to "set so many fires that it will be hard for the Biden administ…
@AlbertReymann @niubi @laurimyllyvirta @HelenHet20 All of which would be ongoing … my point is about action points in 2020.
Chartbook # 2 Nov 18 2020 dropped today. If you would like to sign up for regular emailed newsletters in future by @adam_tooze head over here: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-2-…
@Noahpinion This is turning into a mutual appreciation society but I really like your formulation of a "mutually beneficial detente" precisely because it implies continuity with Cold War era.
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