ADAM TOOZE

@stillots1 I would not elide novel events with contingency or weirdness. Sometimes yes. But not necessarily. It could just be development.

Black Wedge. Red Blob: @israelgvargas for @TheEconomist on Western tech wars with China offers an interesting inversion of the El Lissitzky 1919 classic, Beat the Whites with the Red Wedge. With a linear twist that is a bit Star Wars isn’t it? economist.com/briefing/2020/… https://t.co/oPadKqYHw5

In June 2020 the Fed was forced to ration the supplies of pennies, nickels, dimes and quarters based on banks’ previous orders because the usual circulation of change had stopped and velocity of circulation had collapsed. economist.com/finance-and-ec… https://t.co/34HYmCxi0o

Relations with Fed will be crucial for Biden Presidency @TheEconomist argues. Might that help to explain leaving Brainard in place? economist.com/finance-and-ec… Battle over Fed with GOP has already started. For more see Chartbook Newsletter #3. Out now: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/tlRFYsh4yG

"Quants rely on history. If something happens that is without precedent they have a problem.” @TheEconomist gets this the wrong way around! Quants rely on old data from which they extract regularity. History, in which novel events happen, defeats them. economist.com/finance-and-ec… https://t.co/Gz3Z9tc0nl

In 2020 low income countries are expected to suffer a $150 billion fall in exports, remittances, and investments. From G30 report on financing recovery helmed by @AGelpern @Brad_Setser group30.org/images/uploads… https://t.co/fW8vhldUIb

In 2012, after a decade of stunning economic growth, Zambia could borrow more cheaply than Spain that was embroiled in the self-inflicted Eurozone crisis. Now Zambia is teetering on edge of default. economist.com/leaders/2020/1… https://t.co/g3xVbBDdN5

Corona is forcing G20 and IMF to discuss sovereign debt restructuring. Good explainer here by @TheEconomist economist.com/finance-and-ec… For more background see the new Chartbook newsletter #3 with charts and links galore. To get it regularly, subscribe here: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/lcp4r2IYeP

By Sep 25 2020 @IMFNews had approved 95 separate programs. New IMF leadership talks a good game on development and equity. But what conditions were actually attached? @danielmunevar @eurodad open a can of worms! eurodad.org/arrested_devel… https://t.co/c8vIZMlUA7

How Mnuchin Snubbed Biden, terminating Fed’s emergency-lending programs that will limit the new administration’s option. nytimes.com/2020/11/20/opi… A story of the Trump era? Sure but this week it had its counterpart in EU. See new chartbook newsletter #3. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/9RSoIMfrGV

@boydvenable @MorningConsult But would be good to know whether one did. And the question would be the same. What does one call that?

More than a quarter of Republicans in @MorningConsult poll believe that Trump should not concede defeat NO MATTER WHAT! What’s the right description for that attitude towards American democracy? morningconsult.com/form/tracking-… https://t.co/Tgbxxrenh7

EU faces unappetizing trade off. Compromise on rule of law with Hu/Pl -> unleash fiscal package that will benefit economy and relieve pressure on ECB. Or, stand fast v. Orban’s blackmail -> everything hinges on ECB. Sign up for new newsletter here. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/54a2BWH5Ft

RT @Quicktake: “This was a really big contribution toward restoring the U.S. economy, and thus restoring the world economy.” Russian Pres…

RT @artistkollwitz: Portrait of a Working Woman with Blue Shawl, Käthe Kollwitz, 1903 collections.artsmia.org/art/7380/ #printsanddrawings #mia https…

Arrested Development: IMF lending and austerity post Covid-19 This report by @danielmunevar is dynamite! Essential reading in context of G20 debt framework talks. @eurodad doing the Lord’s work! eurodad.org/arrested_devel… https://t.co/wZtwpu4taD

This was the UK in 1973. Belfast that is … twitter.com/BBCArchive/sta… https://t.co/B9JDDyNIS6

The G20 are meeting this weekend. Political economy and geopolitics of global debt restructuring are in play. For some of the background, charts and key links see chartbook newsletter # 3 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… Subscribe to get #4 straight to your inbox. adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/BrPf1DpRQ6

Vera Songwe, UN Under Sec Gen Head of Uneca, says "last thing" developing countries need is enforced private-sector involvement in debt relief. She wants $100bn in concessional lending/grants (even if some flows to private lenders) = Dilemma for AE govs! ft.com/content/f665b6… https://t.co/o0FBogyxQu

A clutch of large EM went into the 2020 crisis with budget deficits which were large already in 2019 making them vulnerable to funding pressure. ft.com/content/31ac88… https://t.co/oHpI4npW0F

In the early 1960s the US had the highest top marginal income tax rate of the large capitalist democracies. Since WWII it had vied with the UK for top spot. The Reagan revolution changed that. piie.com/microsites/how… https://t.co/Cyq9n5cCLV

Trump-appointee David Malpass as Pres of @WorldBank has waged a war of words with China over debt relief despite fact that G20 docs show China responsible for $1.9bn out of $5.3bn of relief delivered by the DSSI, far more than ROW. @Jonthn_Wheatley ft.com/content/f665b6… https://t.co/s4QQDixBKC

G20 is this weekend discussing a debt relief framework that involves all parties including private lenders. Makes sense. But will debtor countries be willing to use it, if it forces renegotiation of private debt and risks exclusion from market? ft.com/content/f665b6… https://t.co/hI6tctEaYd

Averages taxes (Fed, state, local) as share of income in the US was steeply progressive in 1950. By 2018 it had become staggeringly flat with top 400 paying least of all! Saez and @gabriel_zucman endorsed by @PIIE piie.com/microsites/how… https://t.co/1R9QKg4QZb

New Chartbook newsletter # 3 just dropped. Featuring battles over fiscal policy, central banks and global debt relief. If you would like to receive these by email, subscribe at adamtooze.substack.com If you think you have subscribed and didn’t get it, check spam. https://t.co/j2pcXDlqpy

Pandemic has hit Africa’s emerging economies hard. Ok. But why is this our problem and not just Africa’s? Because the shocks are transfers. Fall in commodity prices benefits commodity-importers. Collapse in tourism switches spending. Paul Collier on form! ft.com/content/3e1bcd… https://t.co/2ep0vr3QET

So far debt crises of 2020 have been small (excepting Argentina), but “some observers think Brazil & South Africa, which are both in the G20 group of large nations, could face severe challenges in obtaining finance in coming 12-24 months.” @Jonthn_Wheatley ft.com/content/f665b6… https://t.co/sKjaR559YU

Almost 200 big corporations have joined the ranks of so-called zombie firms since the onset of the pandemic -> now account for 20% of top 3000 largest publicly-traded companies. With debts of $1.36 trillion. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/64Lv5af3Kg

"From Boeing Co., Carnival Corp. & Delta Air Lines Inc. to Exxon Mobil Corp. and Macy’s Inc., many of America’s most iconic companies aren’t earning enough to cover their interest expenses (i.e. could be classed as zombie).” bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/cYMBTGpD9y

Why the developing world needs a bigger pandemic response The G20 summit and a Biden administration could lead to new initiatives for poorer countries This by @Jonthn_Wheatley is EXCELLENT. ft.com/content/f665b6… https://t.co/fUNdMU2hLX

At its peak in 1945, manufacturing accounted for 25% of the US workforce. It always required rhetorical work to make the male industrial worker into the emblem of society, to the extent that he ever was in the US. piie.com/microsites/how… https://t.co/GRawxYTQ89

The collapse of Zambia’s currency the Kwacha has made its external debts of $12 bn punitively hard to service. @jsphctrl ft.com/content/707aed… https://t.co/djHv5GZQg9

@APeichl @FuestClemens @BachmannRudi @sigmargabriel @ZDFMarkusLanz Cheers will read and reassess. What is the source of the problem?

@APeichl @FuestClemens @BachmannRudi @sigmargabriel @ZDFMarkusLanz Cheers will read and reassess.

Everest expeditions alone contributed more than $300 million in 2019 to Nepal’s economy. Tourism accounts for 8 % of GDP. It is facing a profound crisis. Fascinating by @pabloroblesg bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-… https://t.co/0iKs5TB7x8

Never recovered: Median net worth has dropped for Americans younger than 55 since 1989. And those 55-64 took a huge hit in 2008 from which they never recovered. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/hPF09KUBQs