ADAM TOOZE

RT @BJMbraun: Starke Reaktion der CCP auf den gefährlichen Unsinn vom leeren Sparbuch, den @_FriedrichMerz am Donnerstag bei @maybritillner…

RT @DominiqueReill: Yes… this is one of the best reviews I’ve ever gotten in my life. Another favorite line: a “European story of a world…

RT @daniel_dsj2110: Letter from François Mitterrand to Friedrich Hayek, which praises his work: https://t.co/4mpypSDTe9

RT @maxkrahe: Baerbock not wrong. Verbote ausschließen scheint mir wahlkampfgeschuldet. Irgendwann ist es einfach das effektivste Mittel zu…

RT @Zarifa_Ghafari: This brilliant girl was announced as a topper of National University entrance exam in Afghanistan, while today there wa…

“We have to do everything to prevent a historic left shift in Germany … the decisive weeks are upon us." Wow! Full on Red Scare fear-mongering by Soeder of the CSU. twitter.com/Markus_Soeder/…

Chartbook Newsletter is a space to explore some of the ideas and sources that dont make it into essays published elsewhere e.g. On China in @NewStatesman newstatesman.com/world/asia/202… And on Chartbook Newsletter #26 and #28 and Audio #3 Sign up here: adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/cHNmvoWkc5

Top Links #15 just dropped. Sign up for regular feed from the Chartbook Top Links service here: adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/1GMRTWPw4F

So, how do we imagine this happening? Eurozone and Japan are just going to leap from cash to digital central bank currency in a single bound? ft.com/content/7a93fb… https://t.co/BGAuXozZJ4

Spending on New Deal over 6 years compared to Biden-Trump stimulus plus plans 2020-2021. DONT ALL SCREAM at once. I know it is a flawed comparison. NOT a measure of fiscal impulse etc etc. Nevertheless kinda interesting to see. stlouisfed.org/publications/r… https://t.co/IiBP6npMC3

Graphic illustrating just how anomalous Germany’s debt development has been relative to all other AE. Also shows how upward movement in Italian debt is driven by shocks rather than a chronic tendency. thedailyshot.com/2021/08/25/us-… https://t.co/39lKH35T0C

Where does Treasury issuance end up being placed? Fed and money market funds have been key since surge in 2020. thedailyshot.com/2021/08/25/us-… https://t.co/JocFyHHK6u

On chartbook I’ve been trying to track crucial economic and financial aspects of Afghanistan crisis: Check out #35, #33, #30, #29. adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/K72AwlCHX9

Coal futures prices are surging to levels not seen in a decade. All the wrong signals. thedailyshot.com/2021/08/25/us-… https://t.co/rosOFNWoed

RT @BuddyYakov: @nadezhda04 @adam_tooze @ArnabDatta321 So the big ones are Cleveland Cliffs Nucor and US steel. All are taking profits it s…

RT @bopanc: Actually, the whole Schulz campaign rests on the message that everything will stay the same and there is nothing to worry about…

Though I obviously sympathize entirely with this tweet, might one not also say that it is profoundly weird that “scientists" believe that screaming i.e. saying things out loud is likely to move anything? Even if they say it with emphasis. twitter.com/maxberger/stat…

RT @M_C_Klein: The Taliban's looming balance of payments crisis seems like an opportunity for the Chinese government to put its money to us…

The Afghani has depreciated sharply since start of the year. If it goes into free fall it will accelerate the downward spiral of the economy we have left behind. The Afghan economy is hanging in mid-air, already over the edge of a precipice. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-35… https://t.co/3eU48xq0cC

@CarterPaddy So, to catapult them out of that situation they need investment to at least double, if not triple. -> over a 20-year time horizon you end up with an estimate of $1-2 trn. At least that is how I think the math is done.

In Afghanistan Western intervention shaped an economy and society heavily dependent on imported petroleum, electricity and food. What threatens now is a devastating sudden stop. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-35… https://t.co/litU3a39CT

@CarterPaddy Yup. Understood. But it has historically been associated with a vision of very large scale. Most recently Larry Fink or the B3W proposals of the G7 with a horizon of $40trn.

@CarterPaddy I take “at scale” to be defined by the close association btw blended finance and the billions to trillions agenda. But any project that could show a large multiplier for a lic would be interesting.

@DanielaGabor It is interesting to see two angles of critique here: 1. "It has been tried and it doesn’t work. Who do you think you are kidding? It never will transfer money to lic." 2. "It is a terrible idea. It could get huge. We aint seen nothing yet.” I take you, to be more in camp 2.

@DanielaGabor HI Daniela 🙂 my question isn’t intended as advocacy. I'm curious. What do folks who do support blended finance actually rest their case on? Are there any actual examples of large “mobilization” effects for low-income countries?

Indeed! Here is question for advocates of blended-finance: is there any serious research showing that blended-finance does work at scale for low-income countries? In fact, are there any major instances of success? Genuine question. All the research I've read is negative. twitter.com/farwasial/stat…

@nfgregory @SamAttridge1 @odi @adamtooze So how do you feel about the mobilization ratios that have been achieved? Met your expectations? What do actual ratios imply for likelihood of achieving the step up in inv that bn->trn promised? Which programs have come close to delivering for low-income countries?

@lbrljacks @gordonschuecker @Vivantive Most significant estimates of Afghanistan’s mineral reserves were pushed to top of agenda by US military at the moment of maximum nation-building/COIN ambition during early Obama period. They apparently dug up studies that had been done by Soviet in 1980s. @timothynunan

@SteveGreenleaf Thank you.

@MonaAli_NY_US @70sBachchan Thank you. Banging drum.

Billons to trillions? @SamAttridge1 exposes the big lie about blended finance. Not only does it transfer risk private -> public, it also fails so far to deliver substantial funding for low-income countries. odi.org/en/insights/bl… https://t.co/E0YjYYPkpb

If you want to know why Germany’s FDP do not make comfortable bedfellows for either Greens or SPD ask the question: "Given its history, does Germany have greater responsibility to promote peace in the world?” FDP voters align with AfD! @MunSecConf securityconference.org/assets/01_Bild… https://t.co/xB6YLwocOS

Against backdrop of chronic malnutrition, the terrifying prospect is of financial sudden stop -> shock devaluation -> surging prices -> logistical bottlenecks -> famine hitting those on lowest incomes. The signs are already there in provincial cities. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-35… https://t.co/QQeKlaadTt

RT @r_nagamine: Muito bom esse post do @adam_tooze sobre a situação econômica do Afeganistão e sobre o que a interrupção do financiamento e…

US steel prices are currently twice those in Asia and 80% higher than those in Europe! Protectionism plus supply-chain issues? thedailyshot.com/2021/08/25/us-… https://t.co/jUyqmEivGy

JP Morgan is expecting dramatic growth in the Indian “middle class” in next decade. thedailyshot.com/2021/08/25/us-… https://t.co/6Hfq6bP8Gq