@DanielaGabor @NathanTankus @DavidBeckworth Perhaps I should have said that the last time we saw shifts in those ratios of this size, it was the era of financial repression and it then took much longer (and more complicated institutional mechanisms). @_TimBarker
@DanielaGabor @NathanTankus @DavidBeckworth Yup. At the risk of irritating people Im trying to draw attention to the remarkable shift in the debt/gdp numbers from 3 sources: rates, real growth, inflation.
@_TimBarker @NathanTankus @DanielaGabor @DavidBeckworth This is not an ordinary hiking cycle. So the same methods including bailouts take on a different meaning in current context.
@DanielaGabor @NathanTankus @DavidBeckworth In the piece Im trying to weigh up the line of continuity and change. Of course you are right that bailouts continue macrofinancial status quo but they take on different aspect v. backdrop of COVID/QE-inflation-rate hike cycle & huge bond losses.
@DanielaGabor @NathanTankus @DavidBeckworth Thanks. This helps to clarify the basis of our disagreement. Dont you think the Fed's rate hikes, in the face of huge losses, is a change in the macrofinancial status quo? Wasnt Fed Put/assumption of financial dominance a key element of that status quo?
@DanielaGabor @DavidBeckworth No doubt folks would call that a different kind of "repression" 😉 But thats a nice idea.
@NathanTankus @DanielaGabor @DavidBeckworth Because I need a VERY short formula to gesture to this striking constellation that we have slid into. I understand that you think it is a political misstep.
@NathanTankus @DanielaGabor @DavidBeckworth To avoid misunderstandings I dont mean repression as a deliberate strategy so much as a constellation of inflation and rates from which bondholders emerge with large losses.
@DanielaGabor @DavidBeckworth Maybe rather than repression we should call it a padded cell …
"Don't repeat Iraq mistakes with China, former U.S. officials say Petraeus & O'Sullivan" Yup that really is a headline! asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter… https://t.co/5zPBz4B3b3
@DanielaGabor @DavidBeckworth The financing pressure is real and I acknowledge it. The debt to gdp reduction through nominal gdp growth is permanent.
@DanielaGabor @DavidBeckworth Isnt that the feather-bedding necessary to manage the pressures on the system?
RT @ChadBown: US imports of some Chinese products in 2022 were higher than ever. Other imports from China remain depressed. How the details…
Under a veil of silence we are currently living through a dramatic episode of "financial repression". Trillion dollar losses on bond portfolios correspond to dramatic downshift in debt to gdp ratios. ft.com/content/4d519c… https://t.co/9dtJbCmAOZ
The trillion-dollar rebalancing. Did a piece for @FT riffing on @DavidBeckworth excellent piece in Barrons barrons.com/articles/the-f… on the global bond market shift. ft.com/content/4d519c… https://t.co/HQ9hKdu9LM
The trillion-dollar rebalancing. Did a piece for @FT riffing on @DavidBeckworth excellent piece in Barrons on the global bond market shift. ft.com/content/4d519c… https://t.co/Alh2AVg8GK
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@mkazin @PatrickIber Perversely they named it weltkrieg in part because they liked the idea of the first in a grand new series.
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@p_e_t_e_r_s_e_n Of course I'm convinced by whatever ideas I eventually espouse, but the question is what makes them convincing to me.
@p_e_t_e_r_s_e_n But, as Keynes said, what class position may entail depends on the situation and that in turn depends on other actors including potentially opposing classes
@p_e_t_e_r_s_e_n As a good materialist Im saying that ignoring class position does not strike me as a serious option and risks involving one in bad faith.
Chartbook — Chartbook 206: The attack on the Center for Policy Research, India's leading policy research institution. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-20…
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