ADAM TOOZE

Chartbook #97 just dropped: Is boycotting Russian energy imports a realistic strategy for Germany? adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-97…

@tom_krebs_ Hi Tom can you post a link to your paper with @SDullien

Does anyone know where to read the @SDullien @tom_krebs_ paper on the impact of a Russian energy boycott in Germany? Cited here … handelsblatt.com/politik/deutsc…

@Shahinvallee Warm but non-committal?

"We have to do something — we cannot be the only central bank not reacting” Striking quotes in this @MAmdorsky report on the ECB’s hawkish turn. ft.com/content/057171… https://t.co/J4A7ZVKxib

“The argument about inflation dominated and prevailed over anything else, including the war, the uncertainty and the fears about growth,” ft.com/content/057171… https://t.co/vBhWZM3zNo

RT @RobinBrooksIIF: The sell-off in Euro periphery bond markets is NOT something European leaders can fix at Versailles with one-off joint…

RT @RobinBrooksIIF: Periphery spreads are blowing out today, led by Italy. Issue here is that – like March 2020 – this is self-inflicted &…

RT @RobinBrooksIIF: We'd warned that today's ECB meeting was pivotal for periphery debt markets & that it was key to get the tone on inflat…

RT @TheStalwart: The fact that all sorts of commodities — from burlap to oats to cobalt — have surged over the last year makes it hard to…

RT @DanielaGabor: ok, a BPT spread targeting please @ecb journos twitter.com/fwred/status/1…

RT @choffstein: Elsevier, once again preventing me from reading a 22 year old paper.

RT @RobinBrooksIIF: There were – rightly as it turns out – worries among Euro shorts ahead of today. ECB did not "read the room" & peripher…

@DrO_aorzoff @AlexUsherHESA I blame COVID brain … it came out 2019 I think.

Troubled birth of Ukrainian state out of the Treaties of Brest-Litovsk is subject of Chartbook #96 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-96… THANK you to @AlexUsherHESA for reminding me of new book by Borislav Chernev which I should have included amongst recommendations! utorontopress.com/9781487524494/… https://t.co/ei5jCIBsmx

@AlexUsherHESA Oh wow …yes. I should have remember this. Fantastic pointer. Thank you.

@alex_callinicos @GeoffPMann I take your point, but I am not sure that I would qualify that kind of position as “political" so much as some kind of ethical stance of refusal.

@alex_callinicos @GeoffPMann Even more his personal challenge to recognize our inner Keynesians, our tendency to opt for crisis-management solutions at critical moments. You asked me who or what is thrown. For my money a thick materialist account would start with that insight of @GeoffPMann

Brest-Litovsk peace of 1918 is often read as a high point of German imperalism. Also celebrated as birth moment of modern Ukrainian state. What bracketed both was abortive project of Ger hegemony after fall of Tsarist empire. Chartbook #96 just dropped. adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/LBwpz9D7Kk

If you are looking for a precursor to the geopolitical rearrangement of 1991, the moment to look to is the short-lived peace of Brest-Litovsk in 1918. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-96… https://t.co/YHlGkhUsgk

"Good Peace Gone Bad" The forces that led Imperial Germany to conclude the first peace at Brest-Litovsk with Ukraine went beyond the cynical logic of constructing satellite states or pressuring Trotsky. Chartbook #96 just dropped. adamtooze.substack.com/publish/post/5… https://t.co/osuH0WaSIm

Brest-Litovsk: Imperial Germany and the troubled birth of the Ukrainian nation state Chartbook #96 just dropped adamtooze.substack.com/publish/post/5… https://t.co/KHgrsQPkJY

@anneapplebaum @NewStatesman @sullydish Hi Anne, rest easy. As you know, the article is NOT “based" on your ill-judged tweet or in any significant way dependent on it.

@tom_d_ @alex_callinicos @edbrophy I agree about Georgia, which the Russians would read as punitive not aggressive. Also Az-Armenia. Syria is a civil war which Russia joined late. No doubt all of this lowers the "war threshold".

@LouisGendry @futurerisks @GavJacobson @dandrezner Israel I think may be exception that proves rule. Italy’s invasion of Ethiopia surely counts as a huge own goal. Chaco war I am only just getting to grips with, but can we definitely call who was the first mover? Clear win for Paraguay admittedly. Russia-Georgia may also be case.

@WCWohlforth @Hippokleides @alex_callinicos @edbrophy Appreciate that very much this morning ;(

@WCWohlforth @Hippokleides @alex_callinicos @edbrophy Agreed. And I think the claim about the disutility of aggressive war would still hold up, unless you specified your actors at the level of the "military as such”/mil-ind complex and even that would surely be debatable.

@twittwoods @alex_callinicos @edbrophy ABSOLUTELY …. Mind-blowing as they are.

@Hippokleides @alex_callinicos @edbrophy My phrase was “hard pressed” and I think that your list rather confirms my point. Are any of Turkey’s actions worth the candle? Kuwait: the response ALWAYS has to be factored in. Israel may be the settler-colonial exception. Hence its totemic significance for military thinkers.

@Afrogermanreprt @edbrophy @markhleonard @henryfarrell @ANewman_forward I tend to agree with you.

@edbrophy @markhleonard @henryfarrell @ANewman_forward Great phrase!

RT @edbrophy: @adam_tooze @alex_callinicos "Absolutely nothing" Struck by @LawDavF argument here about the worldview of Putin the spy clas…

War is the puzzle. Not geopolitical tension, proxy conflicts, sanctions etc … all that must clearly be taken for granted as part of conflictual logic of globalization. But conventional, invade-your-neighbor war? After Ukraine. What's it good for? @alex_callinicos @edbrophy twitter.com/GavJacobson/st…

@edbrophy @markhleonard @henryfarrell @ANewman_forward Agreed. But does un-peace mean war? Surely not. Indeed the outcome of Ukraine crisis may also demonstrate, once again, the disutility of conventional war. No peace. Nor war … sound familiar anyone?

@alex_callinicos On this, as you know, we broadly agree. Though not every conflict stirred by globalization takes the form of the kind of open war we are seeing in Ukraine.

@alex_callinicos You say it is "inadequate politically”. I reply, but it is my/our material situation, our class position & as @GeoffPMann was so brilliantly lucid about, also deeply engrained in our subjective disposition. We ARE “Keynesian" subjects.