ADAM TOOZE

Railroad loading of cyclical raw materials like steel, wood, paper etc point to a slowdown in pace of production in the US in 2022. Old school indicator this! thedailyshot.com/2022/06/30/rec… https://t.co/Et0tLQ5Piv

Not since the one-child policy has a national strategy touched nearly every individual in China as zero Covid has. ft.com/content/8f4b6e… https://t.co/hQgfiko8iJ

This has been the worst start of the year for Treasuries since 1788. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/30/rec… https://t.co/AAqh4njmVC

Since c. 2008 the car ownership rate in China’s cities has quintupled. Can Xi’s regime maintain the loyalty of this middle-class group? ft.com/content/8f4b6e… https://t.co/aXSSAPuMRS

China and NL share a common attitude to bicycling as a key mode of short-range urban mobility. Its safe and obvious. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/30/rec… https://t.co/IYxQnCPHrA

Unemployment for urban young people in China stands at 18%, two times higher than in 2018! Is zero covid really plausible faced with numbers like this? thedailyshot.com/2022/06/30/rec… https://t.co/V2Gq7nrutn

3.5 m low-income households in the US are behind with rent and concerned that they will be evicted in the next few months. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/qVLoELVj5k

Fancy buying Carl Schmittt’s bungalow? Will set you back no more than 240k Euros! twitter.com/Tris_wiss/stat…

Sweden’s consumer confidence numbers are bad right now, but also make sense historically. German consumers, by contrast, seem only just to have realized what era we are actually living in. And it has come as a very nasty shock!. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/30/rec… https://t.co/LyZ6l1dtMt

The giant US housing market looks to be cooling rapidly. Mortgage applications to purchase a home dropped sharply last week and are now down 24% vs. last year. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/30/rec… https://t.co/7DDZSUc9iM

This on Mission Command and Auftragstaktik armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Milit… Pairs well with Chartbook #128 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-12… https://t.co/yw8zM1nkNS

RT @BungaCast: "What if history was restarted but on the other axis of modern history-making? Not class struggle, but war?" @adam_tooze in…

RT @HerreraMilHist: One of my rare ventures into the modern era, but not without a bit of history. Many thanks to @ArmyUPress "History, M…

By contrast with life insurers, US public pension systems have shifted away from fixed-income securities as interest rates fell. Moodys via daily shot newsletter from @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/f7t3Af72hs

Though the trend is pessimistic, we are still a LONG WAY from the Bloomberg consensus forecast predicting a recession in the US in 2023. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/rX78YTmzby

Oil demand in 2021, though higher than in 2020 and helping to drive the price surge, was still considerably below pre COVID trend at the world level. Great data as always from Daily Shot newsletter by @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/GXwF3FMZB6

Striking that the recession in fossil fuel Capex after 2014 was so much more pronounced in oil than in either gas or coal. Unless my eyes deceive me. Combination of price shocks, creditor discipline and climate politics seem to operate differentially. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/U1sJyABjxS

Energy Capex as a % of operating cash flow is at historic lows. A lot hinges on how you explain this. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/VkOyCMuPqs

Over the next five year Fitch expects global steel prices to retreat – as growth in China slows – but to remain at historically elevated levels. dailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/zA6mwEkRgm

Interestingly, if you had to pick out a country that combined extreme inequality with severe, imported food-price inflation it would be …. Colombia! thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/HGamf8R9sS

A dramatic feature of LatAm’s last decade (ok, 2008-2020) has been a collective devaluation by more than 2/3! GREAT data as always from daily shot newsletter by @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/18mMshvlgr

Share of foreign-born population in Germany at 16.3% is now significantly higher than 13.7% in the US and 14% in the UK. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/fpzfv48xwU

Why decarbonizing Europe’s existing electricity generating capacity is low hanging fruit … they are a long way there. Supplying the additional power for electrification is another matter! thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/EKuT3HT03r

Wage growth in hospitals in US IS currently leading price inflation. First evidence for a real wage-price spiral? GREAT data as always from @SoberLook Daily Shot newsletter. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/uKiVpy5tQr

More circumstantial evidence for the effect of a sudden pop in markups on the current inflationary surge. @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/HBcYTT0gXM

As US financial markets have come to expect a much more severe Fed tightening cycle, inflation expectations have drifted significantly lower. Faith in the Fed remains robust. Runaway inflation is not on the market agenda right now. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/CZi7WjZaEv

Oh for the love of god … or perhaps that should be “oil" .. Biden turns to MBS and now …. Macron (for fear of another Gilet Jaunes? ) turns to … Biden?!!!!! thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/HjdKKcaB19

Pending home sales in the US in May 2022 tied for lowest in the last decade with … 2020! Is US housing market about to rollover badly? thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/0dqEPIEApT

Indian rupee devalues as the oil price surges. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/3BemGEilfg

Dallas Fed reports that regional manufacturers see price pressures and supply bottlenecks easing. @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/70Shm4Vc18

Another week, another regional Fed manufacturing index goes negative. This time, Dallas … thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/vmGSyzYd1U

RT @DavidInglesTV: BOOM – China Eases Travel Quarantine in Biggest Covid Zero Shift So Far bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Comparing Czech and German consumer confidence, the Czech one makes sense to me i.e. it tracks the macroeconomics, 2008, 2011, 2020 all terrible. The German one, by contras, looks like a population waking up from TOTAL complacency and FREAKING out! thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/S56tPAh6VY

Newsflash: there IS now some wage pressure in Germany. Hardly a matter of regret, even now. Long overdue. Data from Deutsche via @SoberLook Newsletter: thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/F19MRbGhOr

I guess modern Germans REALLY do hate two things: wars and inflation! Consumer confidence has collapsed. Worse than 2020. WAY WORSE than 2008. Eurozone crisis barely registered. Makes one wonder about the calibration of this index! Can this be for real? thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/CKklSFmPhP

The inventory build up in durable goods has been outpacing new orders. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/28/bus… https://t.co/tYocGHD9u4