ADAM TOOZE

In this zoom seminar right now with Marco Buti and @nicolas_veron europe.columbia.edu/events/eu-resp…

Amongst the G10 currencies the euro is the most undervalued relative to the $ i.e. it ought to appreciate to equilibrate trade balance. Swiss Franc,

Since imports from low-wage EM surged across AE at same time and only after 2000, they are very unlikely by themselves to explain peculiar surge

Sudan Will Decide the Outcome of Ethiopia's Civil War As PM Abiy moves v Tigray People’s Liberation Front—Khartoum’s will determine whether conflict remains a local

November 2020 the moment where we had both the Fed and the ECB PLEADING for fiscal action from deadlocked political processes in Congress and in

Options for central banks, & Fed/ECB in particular, against backdrop of lowflation, corona, the climate crisis, political deadlock on both sides of the Atlantic. Theme

RT @AkshatRathi: @joethw8s @full_enjoyment @adam_tooze @gordonschuecker Exactly why primary energy is best looked at alongside final energy…

The relentless downward slide of inflation in the US as plotted by inflationdata.com/Inflation/Infl… H/t @SoberLook https://t.co/uCWPSGeVSE

RT @JonButter2: @adam_tooze @lucasguttenberg Twitter will translate it in an adequate way.

This thread by @lucasguttenberg on EU budget stand off with Poland and Hungary should be translated into English. twitter.com/lucasguttenber…

So no deal on Rule of Law mechanism and EU budget until December. July recovery package/Green deal in play. Shades of 2011? Difference is that

"How imports of foreign supplies of medical kit and medicines came to rescue of US hospitals and patients” – rather polemical title for an interesting

On political grounds Slovenia joins Poland and Hungary roadblock on rule of law mechanism and EU budget. At stake is EU funding to tune of

Two of most knowledgeable voices on ins and outs of EU fiscal arrangements @lucasguttenberg and @jfkirkegaard laying out options for recovery funding and budget in

Around the US election net capital flows to EM began to recover the losses of earlier this year. @IIF data via @moodyanalytics and @SoberLook https://t.co/HfkbsaX4uy

There is much speculation about a recovery in inflation in the US in 2021 or 2022. But where will that come from if the credit

When people drop out of the usual 26-week system is when a falling # for continuing UI claims is VERY bad news! twitter.com/hshierholz/sta…

Another Thursday and we are still here … the essential and relentlessly accurate @hshierholz breaking down the disastrous numbers. 1.1 m people applied for UI

RT @LynAldenContact: 2020 is the first year in decades where the United States has a lower labor force participation rate than Japan. https…

EM classified in terms of debt sustainability and inflation risk. Nice chart though some of the placements are a literal puzzling. Brazil has highest overall

"“Is it $2.2tn, $1.5tn? You’ve got to be kidding me. Just split the baby and move on,” Jamie Dimon said deadlock in Congress over stimulus

When you see figures for primary energy consumption you realize the scale of the decarbonization challenge. Renewable, nuclear and hydro are icing on the cake!

RT @ChrisBenson95: "According to the ILO in early April 80% of the global workforce was in some form of disrupted or shut down labour relat…

RT @DavidBeckworth: I am less confident than Morgan Stanley that inflation will recover so rapidly, but if it does this will be the first…

Shanghai launches new copper future: “will mitigate $ influence in global market. That’s the key, to internationalise Cn currency & have more influence in global

How rapidly will inflation rebound in the recovery from 2020 shock? @MorganStanley thinks it might be sooner than in previous cycles. But Fed is pledged

“theory made real” In 2018 Shanghai launched an oil futures contract. Market faced stress test in April. Whereas US crude market collapsed, China’s contract stayed

Serious nudge, vaccine, lockdown: This piece on internal divisions within the Fed over corona strategy is fascinating. Now almost a week old but worth going

China drives global copper demand & wants to minimize external shocks -> Shanghai launches new futures contract for copper open to foreign investors -> could

Btw 2001 and 2010 China’s rate of TFP growth was more than respectable. Since then, it has slumped to levels that are well below normal

"Wall Street analysts expect arrival of a vaccine to send $ sinking next year as confidence returns to global economy.” Citi doubling down on its

In previous cycles, the Fed tightened policy well before inflation reached 2%. Now The Fed is pledge not to repeat that preemption in future. @MorganStanley

As fiscal stimulus talks stall -> Fed’s unused credit facilities becomes key arena. Will Mnuchin and GOP Senate cancel them before 20 January. @NickTimiraos had

Very few nations sourced more than half their PPE from china before the pandemic. @SimonEvenett @BaldwinRE mount spirited defense of free trade v. Accusation that

In November 2020 – thanksgiving season! – the TEN busiest domestic flight routes in the world were ALL in Asia. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/6CyrG5wejF

Turkish central bank does bear minimum of what was needed to meet market expectations of a c. 5 % hike from 10 to 15%. Chose