ADAM TOOZE

"complexly-structurally-unevenly determined. I must admit, I preferred a shorter term: overdetermined” – Louis Alth… https://t.co/GwhR6FSbfa

Spanish banks need Turkey’s banks to stay solvent. @colbyLsmith dissects the @BIS_org data on bank entanglement wit… https://t.co/At1tC3hinz

American farmers are stockpiling soy in the hope that the trade war goes away and prices recover. @SoberLook… https://t.co/UR7HX8OySI

"the terms, … still fall short of providing Puerto Rico with a clear path back to debt sustainability” @Brad_Setser… https://t.co/XAXZ6kPTo5

It is not just the level of US gov debt issuance but the heavy reliance on short-term bills that is noteworthy abou… https://t.co/GiiwX2BTB1

That feeling when the excellent @Noahpinion recommends your feed and you gain 600 followers in a couple of hours! a… https://t.co/6SrnPgYTIH

Stealth stimulus? Trump’s infrastructure program? Relatively buoyant local budgets? Dumb luck? Ahead of 2018 midter… https://t.co/fRS0ovqApf

Growth in public construction in the US currently exceeds growth in private sector. Are we reaching peak of cycle?… https://t.co/aZ9lbh6jes

Slowdown in growth in wages in EM post-2008 was even more dramatic than in rich countries. Fascinating from IIF’s… https://t.co/1lDGNVfgiQ

Back to the 1980s corporate debt levels spiked in recessions along with default rates. Currently the debt level is… https://t.co/iXydGZcgaj

How badly would a hard landing scenario in which Chinese growth falls to 2% with significant financial squeeze impa… https://t.co/JtEUo1yD14

. @adam_tooze has noted that the bulk of foreign inflows into the US over the last five years have gone into corpor… https://t.co/dubcDG4a8m

If China grows more slowly, how much does that affect global commodity prices? ECB paper estimates: 5% drop for oil… https://t.co/t3KJF1Lr1C

There is $4 trillion in foreign investment in US corporate debt! @Gavekal @SoberLook As @Brad_Setser has argued thi… https://t.co/rFqSCSAFrc

Exposure to China measured in terms of value added absorbed by Chinese final demand, varies from 10% for Taiwan to… https://t.co/5c5Po6xV9n

Here comes Erdogan’s recession: Turkish industrial production and PMI plunging at rates not seen since 2008.… https://t.co/wPEPq4v3xe

Though China is slowing down its greater size means that it now accounts for c. 30% of global growth.… https://t.co/wv95O6WvVw

The gear shift in China’s economy in early 2017 comes out clearly from this graph: After the binge from 2008-2010 a… https://t.co/phYLvqWM5u

Japan, Spain and now China have all had ratios of credit to the non-private sector to GDP topping 200%. It hasn’t e… https://t.co/soPc58qwo2

If you are in New York Thursday 4 October 2018 come to a free screening of IUVENTA -Jugend Rettet on the experience… https://t.co/vDeaUXniID

For all the talk of Italy’s structural problems there is a clear cyclical component to its unemployment numbers!… https://t.co/3Q0bRk1BQL

Japanese Army Postcard : "Army budget comparison between the world powers" implying the Soviet threat… https://t.co/axpZGgKGu4

The stepwise increase in European unemployment after 2012 is eloquent testimony to the disaster of eurozone econ po… https://t.co/mJkGMJpbxx

China’s excess capacity in steel production exceeded the entire production of three of the largest steel producers… https://t.co/xTXIMCHpcH

To read the “tight” US labour market right now you need to factor in demographics as well as cyclical factors. Labo… https://t.co/RstcfnnvOm

Water flows out as a steel slab is cooled at a steel mill in Farrell, Pennsylvania, U.S., March 9, 2018. REUTERS/Aa… https://t.co/ixYzWNY2RN

Who are the protectionists in the US and where do they live? Pluralities of voters in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Penn… https://t.co/HEsO6EASAf

@JoachimKlement @GoldmanSachs @SoberLook thanks!

Sweden is more exposed to a China-slowdown than Australia, at least according to @GoldmanSachs How? Does this make… https://t.co/cTG5g5d7n9

Non-US banks have unstable sources of dollar funding -> funding stress at year end is likely to blow out cross-curr… https://t.co/NSdbwOeGqf