November 14, 2022
RT @DannyDutch: If tea spread to your country by sea you call it tea, if it spread by land you call it chai. This is because the ports of F…
RT @DannyDutch: If tea spread to your country by sea you call it tea, if it spread by land you call it chai. This is because the ports of F…
"Kyiv has warned it would take more companies under state control if they did not fully back the war effort, after the government invoked the conflict against Russia to commandeer five industrial groups." ft.com/content/dd52f0… Energy crisis intensifying tensions on home front. https://t.co/SUU60tEoz1
Ukraine Economy minister Svyrydenko warned that energy crisis could increase contraction in Ukraine’s GDP beyond 35% to. as much as 40%. ft.com/content/116289… For more on internal debates unleashed on by Ukraine's economic crisis see Chartbook #163 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-16…
Experts said Japan is one of the few bilateral relationships where China wants to change the dynamic and improve ties, so Xi could be in a position to make offers or compromises at the G20. ft.com/content/b0be21…
S Korean companies are struggling to refinance maturing debts after a sell-off was triggered by the default of a Legoland theme park developer, reneging of a local gov guarantee & announcement by an insurer that it would not exercise a call option. ft.com/content/ba91be… https://t.co/gyHXqEsJYY
@danielyoung1000 @_John_Handel @Noahpinion @GreatDismal ahh I see. The jackpot trilogy.
Top Links #116 Fx trading round the clock, North Korea & smooth love potion tokens & Spartakist fonts on Chartbook adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-11…
Yes it does feel like piling on, BUT do read this mindblowing report by @crsdavies @ScottChipolina on North Korean cryptocurrency theft and the networks supporting their activities. ft.com/content/dec696…. https://t.co/sXyl0rB0XO
What if part of the US inflation story is down to investment spending driven by nearshoring, infrastructure act, Chips Act etc? David Glaymon ft.com/content/99ce64… https://t.co/VNuXJy0reL
@danielyoung1000 @_John_Handel @Noahpinion I really like your question. I took an idea from Jean-Claude Juncker and seem to have provoked if not shock or outrage at least a mild reaction from some interesting folks. I think it maybe does break a category. But you tell me, how do you see it … ?
RT @CdBalkans: Les #Balkans et l'Empire #ottoman | Il y a 100 ans, le petit Royaume du #Monténégro déclarait la guerre à un Empire ottoman…
RT @70sBachchan: @adam_tooze Thanks v much Adam. I have updated the new nonalignment essay after Lula's victory and published it on Polycri…
@DougHenwood @Noahpinion @_John_Handel @dandrezner Btw Doug, I know I owe you a response. Life been a bit of a … how should I say? … polycrisis?
I actually think of polycrisis as a "found concept" @_John_Handel @Noahpinion Borrowed idea from Duchamp and his "found (art) objects", the most famous of which is below. Seemed kinda fitting given the provenance ("some French (actually Lux) folks") 😉 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Found_obj…. https://t.co/5d4Ka1dZtB
@_John_Handel @DougHenwood @Noahpinion @dandrezner And you may find this take on Eichengreen instructive. Back when I used to review for @NewLeftReview 😉 newleftreview.org/issues/ii92/ar…
@DougHenwood @Noahpinion @_John_Handel @dandrezner That was precisely his point. The 1930s saw radical change, the Obama period did not.
@Noahpinion @MartyManley I think availability bias is easiest point to disarm: 1. notions of crisis/polycrisis are, I think, irreducibly perspectival. "Bias" as so often would be better described as "interest" 2. current diagnosis is not behavioral-media artifact but based on implicit structural priors.
“This implies 1 more interesting thing,” Prince co-CIO of Bridgewater says. To get inflation down, you need unemployment -> cuts spending. How do you cut employment? Falling profits is what causes higher unemp -> profit decline of 20% is needed. ft.com/content/e9d820… https://t.co/wPHNFGpFif
@Noahpinion @_John_Handel @dandrezner Indeed you could go Barry Eichengreen and argue that precisely because we avoided Depression we were also trapped in a hall of mirrors that paralyzed the political dynamic necessary for major reform. @DougHenwood seems attracted by that position re QE.
@Noahpinion @_John_Handel And in a sense I already debated this with @dandrezner and his claim that 2008 and after showed that "the system worked". As you know from Crashed that is not my view of 2008. I prefer Geithner's "defying gravity" as an image. https://t.co/oKBGeN6TGH
@Noahpinion Yeah. Which is why Im broadly aligned with the German Greens who seems to me to articulate this kind of smart, ecological modernization strategy most clearly. But this is politics not a behavioral reaction function in a giant self-equilibrating theodicy.
@Noahpinion @MartyManley Plus you believe, I think, in positive messaging as a politics of solutionism. Keynes was into that too, up to a point. But we need to temper it with "optimism of the will, pessimism of the intellect" and, above all, epistemic modesty. Its, surely, ok to be freaked out right now!
@Noahpinion Whereas my position is Keynesian i.e. there are plenty of bad "equilibria" – or muddles as he quaintly called them – with no tendency to recover. NB: not Marxian which would invoke an "inescapable" crisis tendency that can only be postponed (forgive crude simplification).
What should we make of fact that SEC comment letters asking for more info on corporate filings have fallen by 60% since 2009? Is this significant rollback of oversight? Symbolic? Genuine question. ft.com/content/403c5c… https://t.co/y12wY7hrmx
@MonaAli_NY_US Whereas @RoitmanJanet seems committed to the idea that crisis is itself a naturalizing concept. I can see usages that would be naturalizing, but I dont think that is necessarily the case. Indeed that is one of the reasons I like "polycrisis". It foregrounds the moment of WTF?!?
@Noahpinion Yeah that is where we REALLY do differ. I guess one might say that you believe in equilibrium path with high stability. I really don't.
Still digesting @Noahpinion "Against polycrisis", but immediate reaction is: I don't get it. I agree with most of this. This is why I described our situation as a foot race and a tightrope walk. And YES, I am aware, we havent fallen off yet, cos we are still here talking. But … twitter.com/MartyManley/st…
"SEC said earlier this year that it would use its filing review process to demand more info about how the war in Ukraine was affecting some companies, & to ask for extra disclosures about ongoing disruption to global supply chains." Wow! they can do that? ft.com/content/403c5c…
SUPER interesting "Regulator demands more details of inflation impact on US companies. SEC concerned that some financial reports gloss over effect of rising prices on profits and liquidity" ft.com/content/403c5c… https://t.co/XxjZCFHnuq
"The campaign to increase defense spending is the only congressional bipartisan effort in recent years." Of 900 amendments to the National Defense Authorization act only 1 proposed serious cuts. @MelvinAGoodman2 counterpunch.org/2022/11/07/the… https://t.co/IvKpDRKqxI
Market thinks that 16-point plan from the PBOC and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission signal relief that real estate sector desperately needs. ft.com/content/82b7db… Both @michaelxpettis and @georgemagnus1 skeptical, though for different reasons. https://t.co/NWDJW5cggr
Amazing story of pre-2008 legacy mortgages denominated in Swiss Francs that still haunt Polish banks. Kudos @RaphaelMinder ft.com/content/19235a… Things that break when you get big currency realignments under pressure of polycrisis. Chartbook #170 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-17… https://t.co/mvzJ3nVVZp
THE GREAT MORTGAGING: HOUSING FINANCE, CRISES, AND BUSINESS CYCLES, Jorda et al nber.org/system/files/w… Will history repeat in a 2022/23 global housing shock? Chartbook #171 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-17… https://t.co/RjYxQUz5Ic
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