ADAM TOOZE

Greater Seoul is home to half of South Korea’s population & vast majority of economic activity. Housing prices are rising fast & rental market fuels speculation by requiring tenants to deposit btw 60% & 80% of purchase price to live rent-free for two years economist.com/finance-and-ec… https://t.co/2WucXByPOc

“Privileged insularity” @GitaGopinath: $ share of global trade invoicing was 4.7* larger than US share of value of imports, & 3* share of world exports -> general $ appreciation hurts export competitiveness of many EM & raises costs of imports. economist.com/schools-brief/… https://t.co/EtWAOY33c0

RT @parkersewell1: @adam_tooze My fear is that Trump loses and uses his massive platform to spread conspiracies about the efficacy and safe…

RT @mredmond88: Very helpful table here showing what kind of variables are considered in the Global Exchange Rate Assessment Framework http…

RT @lugaricano: @adam_tooze I agree. I have learned a great deal from this long read on virus, which is indeed beautifully written. @TheEco…

"An individual animal embodies & maintains the restless metabolism that made it. A virion is just an arrangement of matter. The virus is not the virion. The virus is a process, not a thing. It is truly alive only in cells of others.” Brilliant writing! economist.com/essay/2020/08/… https://t.co/XfIULvPOFb

The way that humans walk is sometimes described by biomechanists as controlled falling. Your feet are just coming down and catching yourself. How robots have been taught to walk. economist.com/science-and-te… https://t.co/TXJPKjMIMx

It is not obvious that a solid majority of Americans will actually take a COVID vaccine if we can get it: resistance varies from 70 % for those with less than 4 years College education who align Republican to c. 30% for Dem-aligned 4+ years of College. economist.com/graphic-detail… https://t.co/nIvjPOYRqM

China’s urban population grows at c. 15 m p.a. almost ALL of it in 30 major cities. Smaller cities shrinking. Big cities are issuing greater number of hukou permits. But they use their pulling power to apply strict selection criteria -> “talent war". economist.com/china/2020/08/… https://t.co/FLzmUPb9HO

US Treasury Global Exchange Rate Assessment Framework models tells it that Vietnamese dong should have been 22,134 not 23,224 in 2019 -> calls subsidy. But if it has that model for dong it also has it for euro/yen. -> will there be chaos? @sobel_mark omfif.org/2020/08/us-tre… https://t.co/TWpr4SARMQ

People in rich countries are less willing to believe that vaccines are safe but they are more willing to trust science and doctors -> the real problem is to decide which scientists and which doctors to trust! Reflexive modernity problem. economist.com/graphic-detail… https://t.co/M1bfffk0Gz

China’s urbanisation is astonishing: 850m 61% of Chinese now live in cities. *5 1980. 15m people join them each year. But c. 230m people stilll reside in cities as 2nd class citizens without holding a local hukou = THE major challenge of domestic reform. economist.com/china/2020/08/… https://t.co/m6j9n2iyBO

There is no precise way to measure undervaluation multilaterally and especially bilaterally. But the US Treasury has a model and it may be about to start using it to bring trade subsidy cases. @sobel_mark @OMFIF is worried. omfif.org/2020/08/us-tre… https://t.co/6MshOORMO4

Many thought BRI would internationalize rob lending. Instead, in BRI Chinese banks have become big intermediary for $ EM financing: $600bn by end-2019 -> increases $ “funding gap” of Chinese financial system. W/o swap line -> reserves remain crucial. omfif.org/2020/08/chinas… https://t.co/wa1YdC8Mla

Adam Cotter @OMFIF Asia: "despite pro-democracy voices, HK’s future lies inescapably in further integration with the mainland and specifically the Greater Bay Area: combined pop 70m, $1.5tn econ, $3.6tn by 2030.” 1990s convergence logic, but in reverse. omfif.org/2020/08/premat… https://t.co/it61Kvx7ID

In little noticed case involving Vietnamese tyres, US Treasury may have set off tremors for international monetary system, concluding for 1st time that currency undervaluation may = subsidy. Who will define what is the right exchange rate? Asks @sobel_mark omfif.org/2020/08/us-tre… https://t.co/PsADZBC5zO

RT @Schuldensuehner: Is the #Berlin hype over? The number of inhabitants in the capital is declining for the first time since 2003. Economi…

This is extraordinary on the politics, business and personal dramas of tattoo culture in China. twitter.com/S_Rabinovitch/…

Toys R Us appeared to be a straightforward enterprise, selling toys to pestered parents. Yet its org chart was intricate enough to require colour codes for dozens of boxes for pieces of debt. Corporate America has a complexity problem! @sindap ft.com/content/d21be1… https://t.co/SpRMMI03xQ

RT @hshierholz: This is basically the best thing ever. h/t @joshbivens_DC twitter.com/MeanAnimals/st…

"the assemblage's only unity is that of co‐functioning" (Deleuze, 1987) https://t.co/ETsryY3xzG

Flows of global health financing: 2019 – where $41bn came from and where they went. vizhub.healthdata.org/fgh/# https://t.co/kvgKsBwm92

"the assemblage's only unity is that of co‐functioning" (Deleuze, 1987) https://t.co/qInz8qbfjM

RT @DavidAvromBell: @davidrieff @jasonintrator Number of US Ph.D.’s in History anticipated this year: about 900. Number of tenure-track or…

@jnordvig @NathanTankus @Brad_Setser @bcaresearch @SoberLook And it turns out that in an earlier response @Brad_Setser had offered precisely the dissection that I was hoping for. 🙂

Thanks for the flowers … Danke für die Blumen … is a really nice German expression! twitter.com/JoergAsmussen/…

As ever a fantastic thread from @Brad_Setser Thank you! twitter.com/Brad_Setser/st…

RT @Brad_Setser: @adam_tooze @bcaresearch @SoberLook b) the dip in the US share of China's reserves in the Sober look chart is from failing…

RT @kent_willard: @adam_tooze @OxfordEconomics @SoberLook 1.4 m new claims didn't even make the headlines in financial news.

@jnordvig @NathanTankus @Brad_Setser @bcaresearch @SoberLook All points well taken. What I had in mind was a more basic question about valuation of the stock. Why has the $ share fallen as much as it has?

Dollar dominant? Share of dollar denominated asset in China’s foreign reserves has fallen from 70% to just over 50 in last 15 years. Can this data be taken at face value? @Brad_Setser Are valuation effects in play? @bcaresearch via @SoberLook https://t.co/sDW9yY9gjQ

Credit supply to Eurozone households and businesses has followed a very different track in 2020 than in 2008 and 2011! Shock very different. Fiscal response different. And ECB response different too. @Isabel_Schnabel Data from @SoberLook https://t.co/RVKvEAioea

It is hard to exaggerate the scale of the shock to the US labour market. Another 1.4 m new unemployment claims last week. @OxfordEconomics via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2020/08/28/mar… https://t.co/SLOCKnwvDR

Strikingly, US 10yr inflation swap are approaching 2%. Rather stronger than many people think the outlook might be. @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2020/08/28/mar… https://t.co/BnJ9NzCewh

Coal was nowhere to be seen at the RNC this year. Nice take by @dino_grandoni washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/… https://t.co/VUomknOJ24

"Without our own metaphors, we’ll be forced to live with the ones the nationalist right makes for us.” Instead of supply chains, @zeithistoriker proposes “solidarity chains” originally suggested by Marcos Arruda of the Brazilian Solidarity Economy Network newstatesman.com/international/… https://t.co/OpChqUsb27