ADAM TOOZE

@mare_porter Oh well yes in that regard we surely misunderstood “opening up” talk from Beijing’s side. If we read that as, “we will submit to international rules based order”, that was always a misunderstanding.

@mare_porter So proof of pudding will be in the direction of travel marked out in 14th 5 year plan and associated energy policy moves. Agreed? I took report by @davidfickling to be significant in this regard.

@mare_porter You dont think the moves on financial opening are significant? They seem to matter to Wall Street!

Looking for a TRULY mind-blowing “live” Zoom “experience". ELEPHANT ROOM = Lumiere bros meet Beavis & B meet David Bowie. See it before @MuseumModernArt buys rights. Peak 2020 in best possible way. @FringeArts nytimes.com/2020/09/24/the… Last night here: fringearts.com/event/elephant… https://t.co/0RDMLMWffX

@julien_kloeg @Columbia_MF Yeah I’ve been wrestling with it since framing Crashed this way. Around 11-13 minute mark here: adamtooze.com/2018/03/27/the…

@aldatweets Thanks for underlining US side of the argument. Perhaps one could describe Obama strategy as depoliticization, at least after the defeat of cap and trade in maelstrom of 2009. GND is move to repoliticize & generalize. But can it become "hegemonic"? If not what can ROW count on?

@martin_oneill @ForeignPolicy In fact, I got it changed!

@julien_kloeg Did you hear the exchange I had about “Weltinnenpolitik" with Etienne Balibar on Thursday, kinda flowed into this piece?

@DaSchwantz @gmbutts Would seem entirely reasonable.

A reminder of the earliest phase of the history of Auschwitz, in 1940. twitter.com/WW2girl1944/st…

@thorstenbenner @ForeignPolicy @bueti Im tempted to double down on “wrong footing” precisely because 9/22 feels like a “swerve". EU center of gravity was going one way. Post-Sep-22nd, now what? A bit of judo on Beijing’s part. Non? Which may be precisely why you want to hold the line. If I read you right.

@thorstenbenner @ForeignPolicy @bueti Perhaps my point is best made like this. Compare situation August 2020: EU is waiting for big China move on climate & hardening stance on rights/IP, developing geopolitical stance. Post sep 22: China has made HUGE move on climate. Does EU just continue on path? Book a win?

@thorstenbenner @ForeignPolicy Ok but 1. Climate-denying US may pressure from its side and make linkages, creating a dilemma for EU. 2. Even if we just focus on EU, it may find itself facing climate v. rights-IP-geopolitics trade-offs internal to its own China policy.

RT @rkyte365: 2/3 …this analysis from @CarbonBrief – “ The huge scale of investments required to do this would raise China’s GDP by as mu…

@IFilipau @IngmarVon @APHClarkson Clearly there are HUGE distributional issues and these are embedded in regional power structures but from center’s point of view green transition is not just essential but also a BIG net positive on macroeconomic side. So it is a guarantee of growth not its opposite.

RT @gmbutts: By a country mile the most important thing to happen at #UN75. The indispensable ⁦@adam_tooze⁩ puts a big statement by 🇨🇳 in p…

RT @niubi: They just held the 3rd xinjiang work conference. xhpfmapi.zhongguowangshi.com/vh512/share/94… 习近平：坚持依法治疆团结稳疆文化润疆富民兴疆长期建疆 努力建设新时代中国特色社会主义新疆

@OliHSchmidt I like your Euro-optimism but have you read the piece rather than headline/tweet? Its actually in the interrogative whilst trying to gauge the significance of Xi’s declaration.

RT @niubi: @adam_tooze And it is a massive business opportunity

@Noahpinion Lets just say we’ve made some tweaks! 😉

RT @DEHEdgerton: The world has changed, and on decarbonisation, the EU and especially China, are in charge – electrifying from @adam_tooze…

@thorstenbenner That is short-hand for the idea I sketch in a few more sentences in the @ForeignPolicy piece: it creates tension btw climate policy field, which is a top EU priority, and EU effort to define stronger line v. China on rights/geopolitics/Huawei and offers a big wedge v. US. Non?

@t0nyyates That would be exactly how I would internalize this interpretative problem within an economics frame.

@GoldenBav Further grist to the mill. Excellent. Indeed, from any medium to long-term perspective decarbonization is after all best thought of not as a “cost” but simply as good macroeconomic policy. It shouldn’t be a puzzle.

@Zulutron @MichaelArouet Yes. This is the (horrible) stuff that global climate politics is made of.

@Noahpinion Yeah. Thats where I though I was with @ForeignPolicy But then things sometimes go really quickly. Price you pay for congenial and excellent editing, quick turn around, lovely layout and a great platform. 😉 @CameronAbadi @j_tepperman

@Noahpinion Hi @Noahpinion Do your privileges at Bloomberg extend to picking your own headlines? Mine dont at @ForeignPolicy So then I have to do a certain amount of “framing” on twitter … Hey it stirs the pot. This is for @CameronAbadi @j_tepperman 🙂

Hmm … still struggling to see where we disagree. I think Xi’s announcement puts EU in a rather difficult spot. I would see climate neutrality announcement as a power move. A truly intentionalist reading would see it as a way of pinning Germany.

RT @RushDoshi: @adam_tooze @alpinemacro @SoberLook From that perspective, “effort” may reveal itself in more granular behavior that is not…

RT @RushDoshi: @adam_tooze @alpinemacro @SoberLook A good observation, but aggregate spending is less revealing of PRC strategy and intenti…

My guess, equally unfounded in deep inside knowledge, would be that climate problem is "good fit" for CCP leadership worldview: a. China acts on science and US doesnt b. China has world historic importance. c. This is moment to define 2nd century of CCP. Whats not to like?

Simple intentionalist readings of CCP policy easily end up impaled on cynical/power political/realism v. idealism/ideology fork, which I find profoundly unilluminating. I'm scarred by my start in 3rd Reich historiography.

I didn't venture this "intentionalist" power political reading of Xi's climate move even more loudly in the @ForeignPolicy piece because folks like @sinocism @jordanschnyc @KaiserKuo know far better than me. And because …

… Xi's bold climate policy announcement as part of a piece with moves on Hong Kong. It is an expression of confident power. A consolidation move (though one with risks). A perfect flanking maneuver with regard to EU and global opinion.

4. leveraging Germany, in particular. 5. global green energy industrial leadership. 6. internally Xi is defining a new economic policy agenda. For all of these reasons, there may be more, It seems to me that you could see ….

I dont think we know enough about what is going on inside China's leadership. I certainly dont. But … as I hinted in @ForeignPolicy piece, you "can" read climate move as a power move: 1. in setting agenda 2. marginalizing US 3. wrong-footing EU which is threatening to "pivot"