ADAM TOOZE

The history of capitalism as the history of six “manias”: Disney, Gold, Japanese Banks, Dot.com, Iron ore/EM, FAANGM big tech @bcaresearch via @SoberLook https://t.co/S9TEELyHM7

Despite spring credit market panic, global corporate bond issuance is now about 2019 level. War chest > $2.5trn. @MaxJReyes via @SoberLook https://t.co/2G29EnC6jK

Right now only a financial crisis like March 2020 or Sep 2008 would break deadlock on stimulus in the US. Not banks -> "Look for least legally flexible credit securities that can move fast from low risk to visibly defaulted” = CMBS 2012-7 vintage. Dizard ft.com/content/f9ff9e… https://t.co/SKWw5gB2hq

"a SCOTUS cemented on the right does not mean end of hope for climate policy or for a liberal international order. It does mean activists must put less faith in arcane regulatory tweaks & more effort into passing laws through Congress.” Dizard on form! ft.com/content/1d6ad5… https://t.co/qMzoHU6lJR

“Going long on fear”, “the Armageddon trade” As consumer demand in Asia recedes, gold ETFs now make up 35 % of global gold demand compared with just 8 a decade ago. @hjesanderson @b_parkyn ft.com/content/8a53db… https://t.co/ht2SphtOOm

“Strategic autonomy” This is interesting from @MehreenKhn on the tensions within EU btw French & “free traders”. ft.com/content/0f4fae… https://t.co/s8UzgmKr5H

COVID is adding reinforcements to the zombie army: 13 % of US companies in the Leuthold 3000 Universe index — akin to the Russell 3000 index of US companies — had staggered along for at least three years with profits < interest payments. H/t @Noahpinion ft.com/content/9b304e… https://t.co/6UNVKFfS0J

COVID is creating a zombie army: 13 per cent of US companies in the Leuthold 3000 Universe index — akin to the Russell 3000 index of US companies — had staggered along for at least three years with profits < interest payments. ft.com/content/9b304e… https://t.co/y3CBtHudcW

The rise of Mrs Europe This biographical piece on Ursula von Der Leyen by @b_judah is essential reading for anyone interested in the EU. thecritic.co.uk/issues/october… https://t.co/qpLYDz5tl2

“This is not about short-term revenue or coronavirus impact. It’s about where we want to focus our engineers for our long-term future,” Honda definitively exits Formula 1. No plans to join Formula E. But, future is EV and tie up with GM. ft.com/content/ba229a… https://t.co/js87McWAbO

c. 20k Amazon staff tested positive for COVID @guardian But was working at Amazon in 2020 bad for your corona chances? The data (from the corporation) dont seem to suggest so. Rate is 43% lower than age adjusted state rates. Anyone gone deeper on data? theguardian.com/technology/202… https://t.co/B3vVanYuE9

“German-style” coordinated capitalism? New Deal? Nope. What Uk got, is contradictions of conservatism and Schumpeterian accelerationism a la 1979. High concept take from @carysroberts of @IPPR H/t @DEHEdgerton theguardian.com/commentisfree/… https://t.co/Dtj0R6PAGR

What might a grand strategy of climate look like? My essay on Xi's decarbonization pledge in @ForeignPolicy foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/25/xi-… Triggered this provocative reply from @picharbonnier in @Grand_Continent legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2020/09/30/… https://t.co/EjP2YRIsaT

“Knowledge-driven”: In 2018, 84% of assets recorded by S&P500 were intangibles. One imagines that figure is even higher in 2020. @BofAML via @SoberLook https://t.co/647isAn7gj

RT @ForeignPolicy: With two short sentences, China’s leader may have redefined the future prospects for humanity, writes FP's @adam_tooze.…

Le tournant réaliste de l’écologie politique Pourquoi les écologistes doivent apprendre à parler le langage de la géopolitique. FASCINATING essay by @picharbonnier in @Grand_Continent legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2020/09/30/… https://t.co/PJqu0iYQqv

In 1H20 global oil demand took the hardest pounding ever recorded. Collapse in road traffic was the key. @ISABELNET_SA via @SoberLook https://t.co/MauV9Njd8G

Pro- and anti-nuclear power opinion in the US are tied 22/21 with status quo holding the balance. Little to suggest that this is a promising energy option, at least in political terms. @MorningConsult https://t.co/4E43yI5lMG

RT @MWerner2010: @adam_tooze This is the story👇👇👇👇👇👇👇 twitter.com/mikemadowitz/s…

RT @Marie_Onyx: @mikemadowitz Are the any numbers on how many of those 865k are single moms? I am not minimizing the effect on all women (a…

RT @mikemadowitz: We totally knew this was coming, but this month is a disaster for working women 865k women dropped out of the labor for…

A sustainable future depends on electrification -> demand for copper and lithium is going up whichever route we chose. But, a high-ambition rapid shift to EV -> explosive growth in demand for lithium. @IEA via @SoberLook https://t.co/kyccS4GmMo

@DanielaGabor @PhilippaSigl @RobinBrooksIIF OF COURSE … sorry, hard to convey the tongue in cheek quality of my tweet 😉

Loss of childcare & involuntary home schooling is a MAJOR economic issue for families with kids in the US. >45% of families expect to lose 25->100% of income as a direct result. @SoberLook https://t.co/LzTNVCIRX5

If this chart is not deceiving me, a big surge in exports of “textiles & med equipment” plus computers (presumably for working/schooling from home) is driving notable growth in Chinese exports. @Gavekal one for @Brad_Setser via @SoberLook https://t.co/XiD8ytUplD

The eurozone’s pandemic-hit economy sank into its second consecutive month of deflation in September -> what was that ECB line about complacency? @MAmdorsky ft.com/content/53f5f4… https://t.co/70Z2lbEcls

In May 2020, at height of lockdown shock, 30% of French workers were either unemployed or cut to zero-hour short-time. Helps to explain why EU unemp lower than US, but falls in GDP more severe. ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b… https://t.co/WvIfcnQaqM

The ECB just keeps on crying wolf on inflation. twitter.com/fwred/status/1…

@JobbingLeftieH @senoj_erialc Sorry found it via your webpage! Looks great. Will get.

@JobbingLeftieH @senoj_erialc Can you send me a link to your book?

"the total market value of HSBC Holdings, is lower than the tangible book value of The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation, HSBC’s founding entity, which now houses its Asian businesses. The market is saying that HSBC is worthless outside Asia." ft.com/content/d3e5cb… https://t.co/0pwzhjciWL

“The looming prospect of shrinking demand …” Im thinking deflation, ECB, “complacency”, negative rates … and Im looking at some image of a stealth fighter and a drone … cognitive dissonance of my twitter feed. twitter.com/SIPRIorg/statu…

RT @bencasselman: Even after the recent gains, we still have nearly 11 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic, and progress is slowing…

@JobbingLeftieH @senoj_erialc Yup. Both suck. But in different ways and show up differently in the stats. Really its twice as bad isnt it? Because of fall in paid and surge in unpaid work.

Hours worked give a more realistic and grimmer picture of state of Euro area labour market than official unemployment figures which are hugely distorted by short-time working, issues of classification etc. H/t @senoj_erialc ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b… https://t.co/llxGJOBnIM

The US has just never tested at the rate that it needed to. Level-headed data-driven @MaxCRoser indispensable as ever. twitter.com/MaxCRoser/stat…