ADAM TOOZE

European corporate credit still depends heavily on banks. The ECB is propping banks up, as best it can. But markets take a grim view of their future. @SoberLook https://t.co/dH9Mkk57YU

Contentious commentary on this tweet of “life satisfaction” data on Germany since unification suggests range of opinions out there on 30th anniversary of reunification. twitter.com/MFratzscher/st…

Gilded age fixed income Mid-century equities 1980s financialization -> alternatives The historical sequence of asset allocation by US university endowments is very telling. Fascinating paper this. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… https://t.co/QpJZIK0bAp

Post unification are East and West German families converging around norm of 1.5 jobs per household, with mothers in part-time job? @TheEconomist reporting on interesting work by @DIWECON economist.com/finance-and-ec… https://t.co/9pnqhY7ypT

90% economy? Eurozone equity markets are certainly looking that way. Drifting since July. @Gavekal via @SoberLook https://t.co/yleztorpB0

The enormous wealth of America’s private universities depends crucially on endowment (aka asset) management. Fascinating historical analysis of Univ as pioneers in portfolio management. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… https://t.co/KPbDV7rZpi

Younger women in both East and West Germany have tougher view of trade off btw full time work and relationship with toddlers. Shift in norms? Or, greater realism given actual options they face? @TheEconomist Reports on new work by @DIWECON @MFratzscher economist.com/finance-and-ec… https://t.co/IiPdOGV1m1

Municipal governments across Mexico have an official cronista, recording noteworthy events. Juan Villoro, a writer of chronicles, calls the form “the platypus of prose. Most famous example of these micro histories may be that by Luis González y González. economist.com/books-and-arts… https://t.co/FiHtDx15b8

RT @thephilippics: We're living through an era that was practically made for Foucauldian biopolitical analysis of power justified on basis…

US & Eurozone inflation have sharply diverged. Europe is hoping this is a transient effect driven by collapse in travel-related services. On the other hand if that points to a prolonged recession in Spain/Italy, then, maybe, not so transient? @LongviewEcon via @SoberLook https://t.co/1xjcUf8Y7V

“A plague, but not on houses”: Monetary & fiscal policy support and demand for more space for homeworkig -> house have helped to prop up global economy through the 2020 shock. @TheEconomist nails the headline! economist.com/finance-and-ec… https://t.co/C5aivc7Fp9

Imports to the US through Port of Los Angeles are running at a fair clip! But is this more than a rebound from the spring lows? @MDR_Research via @SoberLook https://t.co/72CwsLtZCv

Math scores of kids in rich countries are higher even if they are from poorer families. How do you compare very different tests? Have one group of kids take a sample of all of them! economist.com/graphic-detail… https://t.co/QhUT9MDuR7

"The revenge of strategic yogurt". How did “French” notions of economic autonomy/strategic autonomy/sovereignty trump free-trade talk in EU? @TheEconomist struggles to make sense of an unwelcome trend. economist.com/europe/2020/10… https://t.co/wgngVMXNq2

Many American households are cash poor and house-rich. $10trn in equity after decade of recovering house prices. Wall Street funds are gathering money to make attractive purchases in case of defaults and forced sales. @RyanDezember wsj.com/articles/milli… https://t.co/Cf7cGtriFO

Rothschild heir in new legal fight over Nazi-seized Vienna assets City authorities accused of cover-up over fate of charitable bequest seized in 1938 named after Nathaniel v. Rothschild and early advocate of psychiatry. ft.com/content/c2ba54… https://t.co/VfNPht8iZB

RT @OrsCostantini: 1/5 My take on EU fiscal rules reform: conditions for that debate to happen democratically & free from financial blackma…

“I want to do a singles garbage night,” she said. “I mean, I might meet my guy leaning over a garbage can.” UWS matchmaker seizing opportunity opened by citywide cut to garbage collection in NYC from 736 to 272 trucks. Fiscal squeeze is going to be brutal. ft.com/content/fc0edd… https://t.co/KYL3HWgHmR

One of bright spots in US economy in 2020 is that the housing market is relatively robust as are household balance sheets: 2.7% of homes have negative equity v. 25% in 2010. @CoreLogicInc via @WSJecon via @SoberLook https://t.co/4EzQjtN9Rr

Clean energy group NextEra surpasses ExxonMobil in market cap. Oil major once had world’s biggest equity value but has been overtaken by green upstart. Apple v. Orange obs. But, at least it is no longer apple v. grape. @meyer_g6 ft.com/content/39a704… https://t.co/01Vmmcp4IA

"Answering the apparently simple question “How old is Germany?” is far from simple.” But 3 October may be its best birthday. theguardian.com/world/commenti… https://t.co/ILM7s6EWOw

“the standard of living of the average American has to decline.”¹ Did Volcker really say that in Oct 1979? No. What Volcker was saying was that productivity and declined. Great exegesis by @_TimBarker More on unions would have been even better. medium.com/@timbarker_209… https://t.co/nK30KMW92y

RT @JoaquimCampa: Snowball fight in 1896. Lyon, France. Louis Lumière. #DeOldify https://t.co/dnoE4KHRKe

RT @dwallacewells: This chart of the most destructive wildfires in California history is simply terrifying. https://t.co/P3i1PVKLJW

RT @simongerman600: I've seen maps of the Titanic's route before but this one also features the likely route of the iceberg. How cool is th…

Credit crunch? It is beginning to look that way for American households. Was it the precipitating shock? Was it induced by real contraction? Demand/supply? One way or another, it has contracted. @ANZ_Research via @SoberLook Remember debating this with @JWMason1 in the spring https://t.co/D7uVKvpbzZ

What with the Fed opening the taps & a current account deficit of $170.5bn, America can hardly be accused of not doing its bit for the world economy in 2020! @SoberLook https://t.co/COLPYVElIp

More evidence suggestive of the politicization of “economic sentiment” in the US: 1. GOP & Dems are on different scales 2. As electoral odds remained stacked against Trump, Dems begin to feel better in September! @TheTerminal Via @SoberLook https://t.co/IjSS1hR2tk

@JulianPopham @bcaresearch @SoberLook Perfectly possible. Im not saying it is or is not a mania. I am saying this is a narrative based around six “manias” … in scarce quotes.

@marcmakingsense @SoberLook @michaelxpettis @M_C_Klein I think it is quite tricky to disentangle cause and effect and you want to look case by case. Since March 2020 it seems plausible to me that the causal driver is US policy. Certainly a distributional shock in China or Germany would not seem a plausible story right now.

Credit crunch? It is beginning to look that way for American households. Was it the precipitating shock? Was it induced by real contraction? Demand/supply? One way or another, it has contracted. @ANZ_Research via @SoberLook Remember debating this with @JWMason1 in the spring https://t.co/Cl65EZtiuc

The Fed has managed to reverse the sudden upward spike in the dollar. But, it is FAR from reversing the rise in REER since 2014. @OxfordEconomics via @SoberLook https://t.co/LllETTdXoo

What with the Fed opening the taps & a current account deficit of $170.5bn, America can hardly be accused of not doing its bit for the world economy in 2020! @SoberLook https://t.co/uVwh5GwNQx

More evidence suggestive of the politicization of “economic sentiment” in the US: 1. GOP & Dems are on different scales 2. As electoral odds remained stacked against Trump, Dems begin to feel better in September! @TheTerminal Via @SoberLook https://t.co/ykzwJpGdIv

RT @GagnonMacro: @adam_tooze @RobinBrooksIIF Economies around the world have languished in the flat region of a kinked Phillips curve. Any…

Retirees looking to generate a steady, risk-free income of $50k from a pot of savings needed $1m in capital in 2007 $2m in 2018 2020? …. $8.3m in capital! realinvestmentadvice.com/the-4-rule-is-… https://t.co/dc9p0ZxwUk