ADAM TOOZE

2020 crisis seals the radical divergence between the EM once grouped in the BRICS club. Outlook for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are radically different. @KarenDynan at @PIIE @OECD data piie.com/system/files/d… https://t.co/jhCzeMktC4

There will be a recovery in 2021 most analysts expect, but it will be much stronger in global level, US than Euro area and Japan. Outlook for UK is truly grim. @KarenDynan at @PIIE @OECD data piie.com/system/files/d… https://t.co/IsONSpBe9G

It is the catastrophic surge in temporary layoffs that made US labour market shock so much worse than in other countries in 2020. @jasonfurman at @PIIE piie.com/system/files/d… https://t.co/bBIgDmKaE3

Cleveland was ground zero for the mortgage crisis of “2008”. African American neighborhoods were hardest hit then. In 2020 the city is once again being split on lines of race and class. Another of @sdonnan must-read reports. bloomberg.com/news/features/… https://t.co/3wu8TPt16z

8 October 1870 in besieged Paris, several thousand National Guard soldiers under command of Eugéne Varlin a member of the socialist international march into the center of the city chanting "Long Live the Commune" = first inklings of revolution to come. twitter.com/Krieg7071/stat…

Hilarious paper: Later bedtimes predict President Trump’s performance. This is the fraction of his late-tweeting nights from January 24, 2017 to April 10, 2020. Almond and Du sciencedirect.com/science/articl… https://t.co/bsbmqziAqQ

RT @heimbergecon: Hahaha, what a paper: when tweeting late at night, Trump's performance metrics for the following day change. In transcrip…

RT @UeberDruss: Is there a word for the strange intimacy between historians and the people whose lives and thoughts we study? By now, I rec…

The coming shock to US state and local finances (excl higher ed and hospitals) is daunting in its scale. piie.com/system/files/d… https://t.co/6q5ZLbCu7S

The US fiscal response to the 2020 crisis is closer in scale to fiscal effort in WWII than the 2008 shock. Data from @jasonfurman talk at @PIIE piie.com/system/files/d… https://t.co/43x2gUS9dR

"Harold Garfinkel, had been an accountant and he put to good use the powerful ways in which humans constantly “account” for situations in which they find themselves -> at each moment there exist simultaneous overlapping interpretations of what they are doing” @BrunoLatourAIME https://t.co/sZyfZNpTPm

RT @ianbremmer: Recovery for me, but not for thee. (ht @adam_tooze) https://t.co/2r7Kv3FScw

Debt/GDP is a problematic comparison of a stock and a flow. What if we cashed out GDP as a stock? NPV of U.S. GDP is $3.9 quadrillion (SS Trustees) or ∞ (if r<g) QUADRILLION. … hilarious slide from @jasonfurman making a serious point. piie.com/system/files/d… https://t.co/jUchosrSMU

“The rise of the renminbi as a reserve currency is not a sprint, it’s a marathon,” Mr Castelli UBS Asset management. Since 2015, internationalization has plateaued. Excellent piece on foreign investment flows to China by @eva_szalay @KangHexin ft.com/content/4b4f1a… https://t.co/z4T9FXePiA

Despite talk of uncoupling, “Cold War” etc, the relative inaction of PBoC in 2020 crisis, growing interest rate spread, fading memories of 2015 devaluation & strength of RMB -> foreign investors are moving into Chinese onshore assets, particularly bonds. ft.com/content/4b4f1a… https://t.co/ZvX6MFwsR1

With US demand for autos recovering fast, the trade deficit with Mexico has blown out to historic levels. @SoberLook https://t.co/ARaftfipTB

Foreign interests in China’s mainland bond market has surged. But market lacks a deep liquid benchmark yield curve, limited repo and derivative options, and uncertain long-term default rate. Nevertheless investors are piling in. ft.com/content/cf7d70… https://t.co/f5xWL7ACBq

The rate of sovereign downgrades in the spring of 2020 was unprecedented. We are now back down to the normal level of the period since c. 2013. Waiting for the shoe to drop? ft.com/content/0582e4… https://t.co/LNHJWvG4uW

RT @UrbanFoxxxx: The Texas Towers — radar facilities off the eastern seaboard of the United States, in operation from 1958 to 1963. Tower 4…

In August 2020, nearly 27% fewer people were employed in jobs paying less than $16 an hour than in Feb 2020. That is a QUARTER! Those > $16 are more or less back to pre-crisis levels. Corona shock is a disaster for low-waged Americans. wsj.com/articles/the-c… https://t.co/ijcRuUVUmX

EM governments, corporations and banks face a wall of debt redemption in 2021-22 warns @IIF ft.com/content/0582e4… https://t.co/XmMmI9is19

RT @steven_seegel: For @NewBooksNetwork and @NewBooksRussia, I interviewed Brandon Schechter (NYU-Shanghai) about his innovative *The Stuff…

RT @PewReligion: 35% of Americans believe that there is a lesson for humans to learn from the coronavirus outbreak, and that it was sent by…

RT @RobbieGramer: State Department issues a sweeping statement on "upcoming elections in Africa," doesn't clarify which of the continent's…

‘First fight the war, then figure out how to pay for it,’ warns Carmen Reinhart. Borrow to fight economic impact of pandemic, says @WorldBank Chief economist. Both Reinhart & Rogoff have struck a tone of real alarm in this crisis. ft.com/content/0582e4… https://t.co/WbLD2guLAO

RT @nhatassi: My uncle Jamal writing in the Damascus countryside, 1966. https://t.co/f4vYA7u3mV

The corona crisis is an inequality shock. For holders of College degrees the American jobs crisis is largely over. For those with less than high school there are 18% fewer jobs. wsj.com/articles/the-c… https://t.co/WUZtCJ6QrT

Building “situations of strength” around the world was a core strategic concept of Harry Truman’s Secretary of State Dean Acheson. Apparently many influential folks in the Democratic Party like the idea. H/t @Dimi ft.com/content/75ce18… https://t.co/CTcR5ZdYcR

Fed estimates that in June 2020 top 10% of U.S. households hold 69% of wealth ($77.3 trn), up from 60.9% share 1989. Gain mainly due to top 1% whose share rose from 23.7% in 1989 to 30% today. Bottom half’s share, meanwhile, has fallen from 3.6% to 1.9%. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/VbYvc6ddCh

The labour market recovery in the US has left 12 percent of Black and Hispanic women without the jobs they had in February. wsj.com/articles/the-c… https://t.co/H53lRE6NNJ

The Millennial generation, born between 1981 and 1996, control just 4.6% of U.S. wealth even though they are the largest in the workforce with 72 million members. @BSteverman @atanzi bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/rorOprhR0H

10% of Americans hold more than 88% of shares. The top 1 % own 50%. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/sYBIO0TrZe

Since 2000 intensive cropping and reforestation has significantly increased foliage and tree cover in India and China. @NASA Sattelites pick up a counter-intuitive trend. nasa.gov/feature/ames/h… https://t.co/WVYIuzGfjC

According to latest data, the 50 richest people in the US, are worth almost $2 trillion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, up $339 billion from the beginning of 2020. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/C0QQ2DuB1f

Time to die: cancellation of film releases is obviously devastating for cinemas. But this @FT explainer is excellent on why it is so damaging to film industry that makes them. To recoup block buster $250-300 m budget you need that early surge in revenue. ft.com/content/656d7a… https://t.co/UnsaYV1iWF

"An industry economist estimates more than 1 m hogs & pigs have been euthanized this year in US. Iowa has paid more than $3 m to compensate farmers for “destroyed” hogs … too many hogs and too few places to market them." wsj.com/graphics/iowa-… https://t.co/RjRyohmi2A