ADAM TOOZE

In 2011 those earning $1m pa were six times more likely to be audited by US tax authorities than the working poor with income <$20k. Today they are only twice as likely to be audited! @propublica via @SoberLook https://t.co/WENrycEVaR

China is benefiting from something close to a V-shaped recovery. US/EU are looking at a swoosh scenario: recovery incomplete and trend broken to downside. @jpmorgan via @SoberLook https://t.co/iMO93HqDbJ

Unemployment in Iceland is currently worse than after the entire banking system collapsed in 2008. Tourism industry has stopped dead. @SoberLook https://t.co/514xcCSDkY

Engineers, not racers, are the true drivers of success in Formula 1. @TheEconomist statistical model finds that neither Lewis Hamilton nor Michael Schumacher is Formula 1’s greatest driver economist.com/graphic-detail… https://t.co/Gvy9oizr1k

US tax authorities are collecting less than half the amount of revenue from audits than they did in 2010. @propublica via @SoberLook https://t.co/6amExWcf3O

In 2011 those earning $1m pa were six times more likely to be audited by US tax authorities than the working poor with income <$20k. Today they are only twice as likely to be audited! @propublica via @SoberLook https://t.co/fqk4SjhcDB

60% of Global Fund Managers expect the US election outcome to be contested. BofA research via @SoberLook https://t.co/rkbBF7PQw2

China is benefiting from something close to a V-shaped recovery. US/EU are looking at a swoosh scenario: recovery incomplete and trend broken to downside. @jpmorgan via @SoberLook https://t.co/iW3jtPBCst

Unemployment in Iceland is currently worse than after the entire banking system collapsed in 2008. Tourism industry has stopped dead. @SoberLook https://t.co/lQ4MugNFMx

Engineers, not racers, are the true drivers of success in Formula 1. @TheEconomist statistical model finds that neither Lewis Hamilton nor Michael Schumacher is Formula 1’s greatest driver economist.com/graphic-detail… https://t.co/kb2KupOmo9

New word: drosometer – an instrument for measuring the quantity of dew in a given area! https://t.co/KtRHYQNdUx

RT @cornelban73: There is much celebration over the so-called burial of austerity by the IMF. This is an exaggeration. https://t.co/nnUJsLG…

Gotta say I am loving the new Bad Plus line-up of Reid Anderson and Dave King with Orrin Evans. Delighted to discover two new albums to write to! editionrecords.com/artists/the-ba… https://t.co/IdXxVJgHCI

The Weather Forecasting Factory with 64k human computers as proposed by Lewis Fry Richardson in 1922 and imagined by Stephen Conlin. A director Standing on a central dais synchronises the computations irishtimes.com/news/science/l… https://t.co/mlawzIbg2y

Felix Exner’s rotating-dishpan model of general circulation, photographed from above, 1923. Tongues of cold water radiate out from ice at the center and form vortices akin to cyclones. Coen, Deborah R.. Climate in Motion (p. 219). University of Chicago Press. Kindle Edition. https://t.co/JrLSEYTfOu

First map of global temperatures based on Humboldt’s concept of isotherms, ca. 1823. Based on data from 58 weather stations. By 1864 there were 2000 stations. Coen, Deborah R.. Climate in Motion (p. 135). University of Chicago Press. Kindle Edition. https://t.co/OR8r6xEuVR

“sentenced to Chernivtsi, pardoned to Graz, promoted to Vienna.” Theodor Mommsen’s memorable quip about a successful academic career in the Habsburg Empire: Coen, Deborah R.. Climate in Motion (p. 77). University of Chicago Press. Kindle Edition. https://t.co/pdjMinxSih

"Karl Kraus agreed that the Habsburg capital Vienna was a laboratory, namely, an “experimental station for the end of the world.”” i.e. »Versuchsstation des Weltuntergangs« Coen, Deborah R.. Climate in Motion (p. 50). University of Chicago Press. Kindle Edition. https://t.co/vYGK8j2WOc

@FabiusMayland @DanielaGabor Province, city, local governments. Power utilities. Coal mines and miners. Folks who have lent them money.

RT @olivergraf: «There are several hundred large and profitable corporations whose entire business model will be upended by rapid and deep…

RT @climate: The rainforests are vanishing at a rate of 1.5 acres per second. Here’s what it will take to stop the destruction before they’…

G. on issue of analytical continuity with Crashed: I'm a pluralist. Macrofinance matters. In a 2008-style implosion it may dominate. But I dont see why we should put macrof front and center on every issue, all the time. If it does often take center stage in EU/US it is by default

F. the various strategic option for giant asset managers, in shaping green financial regime, creating new markets, managing risks in political terms, all of which folks like @DanielaGabor @forfinancewatch chart better than anyone.

D. China has BRI. But EU lacks any equivalent. Germany's "Marshall Plan for Africa" was empty. EU could use pricing power -> that makes private capital key, which brings us to macrofinance, BlackRock and E. Puzzled by suggestion I dont think big money matters.

C. In the piece I suggest that G40 format may be needed but then go on to say "imagining a forum is one thing, the next question is: What forces might actually compel agreement?" And that leads me to D. ….

A. Its a great idea and one @DanielaGabor is already pursuing herself. B. I'm by no means committed to "methodological nationalism". Xi's speaks on behalf of a state -> obvious next question is: how do his counterparts react? Not, how does Larry Fink of BlackRock react. C. …

E. As I say: "like the communist regime in Beijing, “big money” in the West is beginning to take a strategic view … for Western capital as for Xi’s regimes, climate risks are political as well as physical" … which is where the door opens for @DanielaGabor brilliant take on…

After Xi's carbon neutrality announcement what now? In a @ForeignPolicy piece I pose question with regard to other big EM, which are currently driving most rapid increase in emissions. @DanielaGabor asks: why states, why not macrofinance? A: a thread foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/17/gre…

RT @picharbonnier: Qui aurait dit il y a 20 ans, ou même 10, que BL serait sur les plateaux télé ? Les arrangements entre le naturel et le…

Pick you data source on the US Main Street economy and they are all saying that the recovery is a Swoosh not a V-shape. Both via @SoberLook https://t.co/C0JuP1B9qU

@RM7409 @DeutscheBank @SoberLook Its predecessors included, for instance, the kingdom of Sardinia which borrowed at a certain interest rate … it is perfectly reasonable and common practice to extend a time series back like this.

@DanielaGabor @forfinancewatch I would describe this as a crash test of the state-centric framing. Eu hardly nationalist. But yes this was not an essay that started with macro finance. But it isn’t blind to mscrofinsnce. It is introduced at an angle. 😉

RT @DanielaGabor: @adam_tooze @forfinancewatch wonder if seeing climate as a new frontier of financial accumulation (via 'nature as an asse…

@DanielaGabor @forfinancewatch Only asked @DanielaGabor because Im really struggling to see disagreement here. My logic chain: China has BRI. EU? "Marshall Plan for Africa”. Zero. -> reliance on pricing that makes private capital strategic. What if they, like Xi are interested in "regime stability"?

RT @jfkirkegaard: @adam_tooze @DeutscheBank @SoberLook It’s settled – @ECB really does have more (monetary) divisions than the Pope…..

Can Xi’s carbon neutrality commitment be generalized to world of EM? What would be levers? China has BRI. EU blanches at mere thought. Carbon taxes? Or will giant asset managers emerge as strategic actor? @DanielaGabor new piece in @ForeignPolicy foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/17/gre… https://t.co/T6B44HWXF8