ADAM TOOZE

Foreign funds continued to flow into EM fx-denominated bonds Jan-Sep 2020. But they have drained out of local currency bonds. @SergiLanauIIF via @SoberLook https://t.co/e9ce9qEwo3

There was a huge surge in US T-billl issuance in spring of 2020. MMMF absorbed a huge slice. @TS_Lombard via @SoberLook https://t.co/uXlEe4z4z3

China, debt vulnerabilities of China’s local government level have increased in recent years. Direct borrowing by local govs was first permitted in 2015 but has risen quickly to 24% of GDP, significantly outpacing growth in local government tax revenues" imf.org/en/Publication… https://t.co/xgzk2V0WbG

Fx debt service due by end of 2021 exceeds Fx reserves in Zambia (pop 17 m) Ethiopia (pop 110 m) Pakistan (pop 215 m) @IMFNews GFSR imf.org/en/Publication… https://t.co/U8P4DIxORf

The drawdown of US forces in the Persian Gulf in 2017 was dramatic. @TS_Lombard via @SoberLook https://t.co/uzMIbOkZ4a

The acute EM/frontier funding squeeze of March/April has eased. But cost of funding remains c. twice what it was at start of year and spread to EM IG has roughly doubled too -> huge stress on those with major refinancing needs. @IMFNews GFSR imf.org/en/Publication… https://t.co/Qvbz7C3nzR

Another reminder that whereas global funding for EM fx bond issuance has recovered, the same is not true for local currency issuance. @IMFNews GFSR imf.org/en/Publication… https://t.co/SDyzjDhULf

A million jobs have been shed from state and local employment in the US since the start of the year. @GregDaco via @SoberLook https://t.co/cJtOMvO3rQ

South Africa & the Philippines have more than half their annual debt issuance to get done by the end of the year. @IMFNews GFSR imf.org/en/Publication… https://t.co/VsLdOGFaef

Rich world observers tend to underestimate globalization of China’s banks because they are active above all "in poorer markets that Western lenders either never entered or are now abandoning” = one place to recycle China’s $ export earnings. economist.com/finance-and-ec… https://t.co/6bhCsN0Wqs

Several EM central banks have met the 2020 crisis with QE. In many cases, bond buying has been small scale. Not in the case of the Bank of Indonesia. Its monetary operations have totaled roughly IDR 658 trillion, worth about 4.2% of GDP! ING via @SoberLook https://t.co/qSsJP9twUc

IMF fears that in an adverse scenario banks holding c. 40% of assets in EM could end up in very weak capital position. GFSR @IMFNews imf.org/en/Publication… https://t.co/1VwN20qNhS

RT @olgatuleninova: Winslow Homer After the Hurricane (1899) https://t.co/kkaniyow3z

Foreign assets of China’s commercial banks, net of liabilities, have soared by $125bn since April = an effective mechanism for preventing yuan appreciation whilst avoiding “official” intervention. @TheEconomist citing @Brad_Setser economist.com/finance-and-ec… https://t.co/I9afPrqljx

Japan’s core consumer price index is lower today than in 1992. This is what sustained deflation/lowflation looks like. @alpinemacro via @SoberLook https://t.co/3dwAHvXUFK

In 2020 EM central banks have done QE to supplement rate cuts, provide fiscal support and help stabilize bond markets. It has worked. Rates are lower and there has been little depreciation. But it depends on “credibility. Turkey is another story … economist.com/finance-and-ec… https://t.co/pvOLt8w2oP

In the face of mounting deflationary pressure in the Euro area, the @ecb continues to predict a rebound in inflation in 2021-2. When will we see a realistic inflation forecast out of Europe’s central bank? @DeutscheBank via @SoberLook https://t.co/6UrzhxQhe0

The new corona infection rate in France is currently almost three times as bad as in the US. The UK/Spain rates are *2. And yet, somehow the idea persists that Europe has handled this epidemic better than the US. @LongviewEcon via @SoberLook https://t.co/THrNFSjqIT

RT @archillect: https://t.co/YxR8Vtu4eR

RT @MaxCRoser: Tanzania's President John Magufuli won the election with 84%. The opposition describes the election result as fraudulent. ht…

The extraordinarily strong relationship btw China’s credit impulse and Germany’s PMI suggests China domestic demand -> demand for German exports. @scotiabank via @SoberLook https://t.co/oIEFyDFRXE

Germany is sliding deeper into deflationary territory. @SoberLook https://t.co/pRhYD5ZBXy

"CEO confidence skyrockets on expectations of layoffs and wage cuts” @DionRabouin Quite the headline from @axios axios.com/ceo-confidence… https://t.co/32eVNQoRlK

RT @drlangtry_girl: Holders of currencies and gold jewelry, trophies royal armor, 1506, Andrea Mantegna https://t.co/t0xuYRH2Un

22.7 m Americans are receiving various types of unemployment benefits as of Oct 10. More than 60% of those will see their benefits expire at the end of the year. @OxfordEconomics https://t.co/YOufryuBUt

Another week. Another million Americans sign on for unemployment benefit. @OxfordEconomics via @SoberLook https://t.co/wDspvyNjkS

After 2 disastrous quarters and a rebound in Q3, the 2020 crisis is now exactly where we were at in the 3rd quarter of the 2008 shock, but the outlook is even more uncertain. @SoberLook https://t.co/zyeZtcis0B

The 2020 shock benchmarked against the pre crisis trend indicates how far we are from a real recovery. @SoberLook https://t.co/4HLVINKjAM

America’s trade deficit is adding helpful stimulus to rest of the world. @SoberLook https://t.co/dE5cVf3bff

The surge in US renewable energy consumption since 2000 has been driven above all by wind power. @EIAgov via @SoberLook https://t.co/LLrk6Uqj5b

China’s share of global exports has surged in 2020 to record levels. @ISABELNET_SA via @SoberLook https://t.co/YZjUz6WZpI

The Euro Area now imports as much from China as from the UK and the USA combined. @Brad_Setser via @SoberLook https://t.co/3l6W8NCylN

2017 was the year in which all elements of America’s net international investment position – debt & equity – went negative. @bcaresearch via @SoberLook https://t.co/Ngcp9M2wfZ

Sales of earthmoving equipment by Caterpillar point to a divided recovery worldwide. @TS_Lombard via @SoberLook https://t.co/TkQAVGNqY1

Set myself this morning to reading Catherine Schenk’s fascinating genealogical take on Bretton Woods system in her Per Jacobsson Lecture at @BIS_org by way of Kindleberger v. Eichengreen on hegemony/cooperation and Michel Foucault (at least in name drop). bis.org/events/per_jac… https://t.co/74zbKP2d8O

If you translate hours lost due to COVID into GDP shares by way of output per hour worked -> there is now a $982 billion gap between the value of fiscal stimulus packages and the labour market damage inflicted by the pandemic. @wef weforum.org/agenda/2020/10… https://t.co/yI9R2f2n1P