ADAM TOOZE

There is a lot of political instability around the CESEE region, but Turkey is where a financial crisis could really have wider implications! “Systemic", perhaps not, but an order of magnitude more serious than Belarus. imf.org/external/np/pp… https://t.co/IaCRkjcajq

An @TheEconomist Round up on the US economy under Trump. Conclusion: It is hard to identify any Americans worse off in Jan 2020 economic terms than in Jan 2017. Helps to explain the resilience of Trump support, perhaps? economist.com/united-states/… https://t.co/PmvHwH0zdb

In a major corona study in India, 70 percent of those who tested positive infected nobody. 10 percent of cases caused 60 percent of transmissions. economist.com/graphic-detail… https://t.co/2e4ilqGGgi

Regardless of whether Biden passes big stimulus in 2021, US budget deficit will likely stay above 8% of gdp = historic surge in debt -> Treasury market needs to be fit for purpose. @TheEconomist Argues for clearing to replace creaky primary dealer system. economist.com/leaders/2020/1… https://t.co/VtvDv3Kfv5

We tend to talk about the “plumbing” of the financial system. But this BRILLIANT illustration by @satillus about the US Treasury market, has me wondering whether that is really the right metaphor. Is it more electromechanical, like a Turing “bomb"? economist.com/finance-and-ec… https://t.co/MAdkja7FFn

“As I stood on the edge of Germany’s historical abyss, feeling the burden of millions of murders, I did what people do when words fail”. Brandt’s genuflection at memorial to Warsaw ghetto uprising commemorated in a Euro. Unique use of sovereign currency? bundesbank.de/en/tasks/cash-… https://t.co/zl1P4gP33I

"EU has failed miserably as a development engine for neighbors with no accession perspective. It is still a little-understood issue why being in neighborhood of a very large, rich entity has had so little spillover” This M. Landsmann essay is excellent! ideas.repec.org/a/onb/oenbfi/y… https://t.co/4TJiYfK6ty

How to fix the market for Treasury bonds: There is a danger that America’s financial plumbing cannot cope with surging government debt. Technical, but v clear @TheEconomist leader on the need to relieve stress in all-important US Treasury market. economist.com/leaders/2020/1… https://t.co/9Jazha6qLL

RT @cszabla: someone really needs to write a history of late west germany just so they can use the subtitle “vom kniefall zum mauerfall” ht…

@BuddNicholas @PeterOlsson This stuff is really priceless precisely because do not know enough about how small group infantry or for that matter armor combat units actually worked. PLEASE write the book! Or perhaps create a website?

A large part of infantry work in 20th century warfare was carrying ammunition for machine-guns! twitter.com/BuddNicholas/s…

As usual @BuddNicholas threads in which he reads apparently mundane WWII images are fascinating … twitter.com/BuddNicholas/s…

In a Ethiopian civil war, because Tigray was on front line of war with Eritrea, it has a large militia force manned by veterans. Northern Command in Tigray contains more than half of Ethiopian army’s fighting men, many of whom are Tigrayan. economist.com/leaders/2020/1… https://t.co/A2AukJRoCR

Hi @GustavAHorn all the very best to you and your family for a speedy recovery and a few restful days at home. Thinking of you! twitter.com/GustavAHorn/st…

RT @sovietvisuals: "Research Institute of Genetics" painting by Gennady Golobkov, USSR, 1976 https://t.co/l8A5yUqGAa

RT @ANPIBsCarmine: 🎂Birthday. Italian WW2 freedom fighter Mario Fiorentini — 102 today! An urban warfare unit (GAP) officer in the Resistan…

RT @The_NewArab: Erdogan and Turkey's finance minister, his son-in-law Berat Albayrak, have often blamed Turkey’s economic woes on foreign…

Thanks for this. Completely agree. Great prompt for our @jainfamilyinst seminar on Monday: "Global Power in the North-Atlantic Financial System” We may well engage with Susan Strange’s work: @BuddyYakov @DanielaGabor @DominikLeusder @CarlaNorrlof @elham_saeidi @nina_econ twitter.com/FADCLDN/status…

The shock to EM funding in 2020 was grievous. Unlike in 2008 it did not provoke a financial crisis. One of key reasons is macrofinancial reduction in foreign exposure (both on funding and lending side) captured by Mathias Lahnsteiner of @oenb ideas.repec.org/a/onb/oenbfi/y… https://t.co/vDRb4p6LNY

In other news, Erdogan fires head of central bank for failing to prevent devaluation of lira. How will markets react? Or is Turkish central bank already so far discounted as an independent factor? Biden means Erdogan loses a buddy in WH. ft.com/content/4e6528… https://t.co/ooc2ijOA1R

RT @samuelpepys: To see “The Tempest,” an old play of Shakespeare’s, acted, I hear, the first day. And so my wife, and girl, and W. Hewer b…

Interesting list for the Bavarian Book Prize. twitter.com/intellectures/…

Talk of Gensler makes @matthewstoller happy. Me too … Dont expect Europeans, with long memories, to be similarly pleased! bloomberg.com/news/articles/… twitter.com/matthewstoller…

“You can’t predict what will happen and you don’t know how markets will react”. In the event markets decided that there was really no downside to America’s election, either way, blue wave or not. @RobinWigg @colbyLsmith @katie_martin_fx ft.com/content/6d67f2… https://t.co/QKBEdItouB

RT @rometostandrews: "I did what people do when words fail them…" #Kniefall #WillyBrandt twitter.com/adam_tooze/sta… https://t.co/4Ag3OyI8PR

RT @lugaricano: Precioso, emocionante, enhorabuena al @bundesbank : moneda de 2 euros marcando el aniversario del momento en 1970 en el que…

@huntthesnark You omit Schmidt deliberately?

RT @TarikCyrilAmar: @adam_tooze Interestingly, the Kniefall was not reported much in Poland then either. The key inhibition there seems to…

Wow! New Euro coin marks 1970 moment when German Chancellor Brandt, on visit to Warsaw to pursue his controversial detente policy, fell to his knees in front of memorial to Warsaw ghetto uprising. At time, plurality of West Germans thought gesture excessive. Now, an icon. twitter.com/ElizabethM_War…

RT @AdamPosen: Excited and grateful to have appeared on @ritholtz MiB podcast this week. We talked about fiscal policy, Fed, outlook for US…

Mexico’s economic recovery has a very long way to go. @SoberLook https://t.co/XJDA4CSafJ

@stewartjoseph So we agree that 3rd parties can cause havoc in a 2 party system, but it is unpredictable which side will suffer the damage.

@LMcHugh_Russell @gabriel_zucman As I acknowledged, the argument may have some merit as a “deterrent to worse ideas”. But isn’t it a bad idea to allow Graham, of all people, to frame the debate.

RT @kajleers: @adam_tooze I wouldn't be too sure. GA in 2016: Libertarians won 125K votes PA in 2016: Libertarians won 146K WI in 2016: L…

Stretching the legs of the K-shaped recovery in the US. The worst hit sectors are seeing no improvement. From Torsten Slok now at Apollo. https://t.co/TGCnjSsG0r

Thanks to 1st past the post system at state level, third parties can really matter in American elections. Greens often hurt Dems. This time around, it seems Libertarians may have really hurt Trump. And some folks on internet are mad about it. twitter.com/Read_N_Learn/s…