November 8, 2020
The corona setback in October is terrible news for commercial real estate. Potential stress point in the financial system? @SoberLook https://t.co/MHRi3KTU3i
The corona setback in October is terrible news for commercial real estate. Potential stress point in the financial system? @SoberLook https://t.co/MHRi3KTU3i
Strikingly early on night of 3/4 Nov stock markets seem to have decided that there was a rising probability that steel tariffs would be repealed. Bad for US Steel stock. @SoberLook https://t.co/VJcWimHiwF
Split US election outcome -> no mega stimulus -> bad news for Caterpillar and heavy industrials. @SoberLook https://t.co/bV89Yk61tb
"I want to make sure that we conservatives keep on fighting to make sure we don't have a Green New Deal, we don't get rid of gas and coal and oil, that we don't have a Medicare For All plan …” … Romney twitter.com/therecount/sta…
Split 2020 election outcome -> stimulus less likely -> less borrowing -> yields decline -> What happens? Shares of house builders soar cos financing costs for mortgages will be lower. Crowding out logic in action. But this assumes that we aren’t in a chronic slump. @SoberLook https://t.co/4bUnfYaDAo
RT @jtheibault: @adam_tooze I am in general dubious about analogies between the #30yearswar and contemporary events (which have mostly focu…
Many Dem party campaigns are so incompetently run that it is hard to tell what actually accounts for their defeat. On the other hand you can win campaigns with progressive messaging if you run them right. Essential takeaways from this @AOC interview. nytimes.com/2020/11/07/us/… https://t.co/MGaBsPoDLz
Split 2020 US election result -> less chance of mega stimulus -> lower yields -> bad for bank shares. @SoberLook https://t.co/I5SKlDPEUB
It is the end for Tegel. Gateway to Berlin for so many of us …. twitter.com/RHoeltschi/sta…
RT @jeneps: The Biden-Harris transition is now on Twitter as @Transition46.
@Marcomadness2 @SoberLook My snapshot was just to early in day of Nov 5. You track for rest of week …
RT @MattGarrett3: Balance between prospects of big Fiscal Stim (required D Prez and Dem Sen) which would have had Fed less aggressive (long…
RT @Rycon: @jawnsy @adam_tooze Agreed, I've been using this graphic to connect the dots between the 'Swoosh' and the 'K' https://t.co/UXGOU…
Gridlock in Congress makes any significant new antitrust legislation against the tech industry less likely -> Tech shares soared. @SoberLook https://t.co/ipznugFAzu
As markets digested news of power split in US btw Biden WH and McConnell Senate -> expectations of stimulus faded and so did future inflation expectations. @SoberLook https://t.co/h1araVGZrD
RT @Rycon: Smallest hill I'm willing to die on: It was never a "V-shaped recovery." Calling it a "V-shaped recovery" created a media narrat…
As Blue Wave idea crashed and expectation of mega stimulus evaporated -> bond yields plunged. Makes sense. But why then, did stocks rally last week? Expectation of Fed stepping in? @SoberLook https://t.co/OaDeqhbX7s
After rebounding from initial corona shock, the recovery in US economy in October plateaued 10 m jobs down on pre-crisis level. Short of vaccine or stimulus, this is status quo. Fed continues to be mainline of support. Torsten Slok now at Apollo. https://t.co/psrT7lxPx4
RT @SteveStuWill: "The Creator, if He exists, has an inordinate fondness for beetles." –J. B. S. Haldane (attributed) 📷 by Scott Lewis htt…
With the 400 year anniversary of the Battle of White Mountain coinciding with the 33 year anniversary of Joe Biden’s 1st presidential campaign I am mulling a hot take on what Thirty Years War and Westphalian peace have to teach us about 21st-century American politics … 😉 https://t.co/TFvPw4kqwq
RT @AnthonyBarnett: @adam_tooze Tyll brought it alive for me theguardian.com/books/2020/feb…
Joe Biden last night completed fist leg of a journey that began 33 years ago! I gotta admit, I find this image of his 1987/8 campaign mind-boggling. nytimes.com/2019/06/03/us/… https://t.co/YI9fL4iunV
RT @rgpoulussen: 1945, Hamburg, Germany. For the technical guys and gals among my followers. A cross section of a U-Boot. #WW2 #HISTORY htt…
RT @RobinBrooksIIF: Lots of skepticism that FX devaluation boost export volumes, with many blaming Dollar-invoicing. But most FX moves are…
RT @RobinBrooksIIF: Turkish Lira is down as much in 2020 (horizontal) as in 2018 (vertical). But at this point in 2018, Lira was recovering…
RT @DanielaGabor: the big question now, to me, has morphed from 'have we properly regulated shadow banking' to 'how are shadow banks stra…
RT @RobinBrooksIIF: Some market participants see the change in Turkey's central bank governor as a regime change that clears the way for ra…
The THIRTY years war is conventionally dated to 1618. The first battle that is widely remembered did not take place until 400 years today, 8 Nov 1620 at the White Mountain … 28 years to go. I am going to grow old, literally, retweeting this timeline! twitter.com/vor400/status/…
RT @i_aldasoro: These effects are weaker for countries that have higher degrees of capital inflow controls. Controls on capital inflows can…
@BuddNicholas @IdleMrBridle @UNARMOUREDworld @PeterOlsson Mate, your twitter is very meaningful! … dont mean to embarrass you but for real.
@UNARMOUREDworld @BuddNicholas @IdleMrBridle @PeterOlsson This is precisely right from @UNARMOUREDworld @IdleMrBridle Start with the blog. The posts really don't need to be anything more than twitter threads but the beauty is … no 280 character limit.
RT @AaronBastani: We now know @joebiden will be the next President of the United States. What might his presidency mean for working class…
Why the bond market might keep America’s next president awake at night Over the past year or so, the world’s most important asset market has malfunctioned twice. @TheEconomist On a real roll!!!!! economist.com/finance-and-ec… https://t.co/DFUDgL5PSz
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