ADAM TOOZE

Global banks were hammered by the corona shock in 2020 with median ROE falling to 2%. Euro area banks are bottom of the pile and @ecb is worried. Compared to the Fed’s FSR, the ECB’s Financial Stability Review makes for graphic reading! See New Newsletter. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/coAPqZgMk2

"Random Length Lumber" is the #2&Btr 2×4 specification of lumber that is deliverable into lumber futures contracts traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Prices are rising again. wsj.com/articles/lumbe… https://t.co/R1nQVNEQ30

Oil inventories at Cushing, OK (the settlement hub for WTI futures) have been climbing and you know what can happen when that goes wrong! @SoberLook https://t.co/B2xMOahudc

News of vaccine has triggered the largest move out of gold ever. @BankofAmerica via @SoberLook https://t.co/bBWeZS6Mly

The dollarization of Russia in the 1990s is not something that lends itself to statistical precision, but we know the scale was immense. Estimates of foreign cash holdings in Russia, in billions of US dollars. sciencedirect.com/science/articl… https://t.co/VrMiVrtUv9

“Losing ground”: how the US trend growth path has shifted down through successive recessions since the early 1990s. @TCosterg via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2020/11/23/us-… https://t.co/e6tuVk8zYK

S Africa will be testing the willingness of both domestic and foreign debt markets to sustain its deficits. @alpinemacro via @SoberLook https://t.co/ky0EkxAZ7M

Price of insuring against a 20% equity market correction has fallen by 1/2 since March but remains elevated. @ecb is worried about stability risks. For a review of ECB, Fed and IMF Financial Stability Review see the new Chartbook Newsletter # 4. Sign up! adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/Y0pIggelXG

One would think that a vaccine would be good news for oil/gas and thus for Russia’s currency. But bets are building against the ruble. Is it the political news from the US? Biden not Trump. @Danske_Research via @SoberLook https://t.co/PUpSnRBAen

“We used to price SOE bonds based on how strong their government backing was,” said Zhang Pan, head of credit rating at a Shanghai-based bond fund. “We will have to pay more attention to their fundamentals in the future.” On the quake in China’s SOE bonds. ft.com/content/397b7c… https://t.co/DzXLnk3jyJ

China’s financial globalization is multi-pronged. One key element is build up of dollar/fx liabilities (money owing/debts) in private Chinese balance sheets, which reached peak in 2014 at just shy of $1.5trn. Stable since 2018 at c. $1.3trn. @bcaresearch via @SoberLook https://t.co/yV21KAmNSa

Commercial Real Estates lending makes up almost 18 % of all lending by German banks! Wow. Sector has been hard hit by corona -> @ecb is worried about stability risks. See "Financial Stability Three Ways" in Chartbook Newsletter #4. Sign up at: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/fzReKkzMEV

Angela Merkel has had a GOOD pandemic! And there isnt really much that Macron can do. @MorningConsult h/t @SoberLook morningconsult.com/form/global-le… https://t.co/4raMQLwzfQ

"a culture of non-transparency,” on vaccine contracts: "The lawyers the lawyers” “Once [secrecy is] peeled away, what you see is a massive privatisation of billions of dollars of government funds,” @jamie_love quoted by @donatopmancini ft.com/content/95c49b… https://t.co/LzjM9E74C2

RT @MehreenKhn: After meeting in Warsaw, PM's of Poland and Hungary sign a declaration calling for a "substantial modification" of the EU r…

Mapping trade policy transition from Trump is complex because it has so many strands: China, Lighthizer 301 retaliation v. France for tech taxes, 301 action v. Vietnam on currencies (normally Treasury), Sec 232 on nat sec over steel headed by Commerce ft.com/content/f3337d… https://t.co/vkojB9n64K

When it comes to household debt and real estate prices, the Dutch are really not so “frugal” and that creates risk, as the @ecb warns. The latest ECB Financial Stability Review is strikingly dark in tone. See latest Chartbook Newsletter #4 for review. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/QyGS7ndmZw

Likely impact of a no-deal Brexit, broken down by negative effect. 1.5 % of GDP In medium term of which half is due to negative productivity effects. OBR via @ChrisGiles_ ft.com/content/2a8dd2… https://t.co/03BOzsiIhC

Salus populi suprema lex esto (Latin: "The health (welfare, good, salvation, felicity) of the people should be the supreme law”, Cicero De Legibus H/t @martinwolf_ https://t.co/IemDGNX9RY

Economic emergency: "Not since the second world war has a UK chancellor had to come to the House of Commons and announce such a large downgrade to the outlook for Britain’s economy and public finances.” @ChrisGiles_ ft.com/content/2a8dd2… https://t.co/D5Gw4ARW6R

RT @ojblanchard1: A fascinating graph, showing the dynamics of the second wave in France. Things were fine in July, but the 20-29 year ol…

"Newly developed indicator highlights that corporate sector vulnerabilities have increased to levels last seen during sov debt crisis. Financing risks have not materialised thanks to support measures” @ecb Financial Stability Review is very alarming! See: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/5UYynF7Jbg

@siddiqui71 Thank you!

"Even with highest debt/GDP ratio in decades, cost to UK gov of servicing that debt is lowest since WWII, and falling. So what need is there to make “tough choices” to put public finances on sound footing?” @MESandbu Now is time to focus on recovery! ft.com/content/4c8859… https://t.co/ZLySScAl8d

"“If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy”. That sentence, attributed to a Chinese government official, has been splashed all over the Australian press in recent days. It deserves to resonate well beyond that country’s shores." ft.com/content/ad0b27… https://t.co/qZldYfPNHK

50 ships laden with Australian coal worth $500m are stranded off Chinese ports with 1000 crew on board, as tensions between the trading partners increase. Barley, beef, wine hit too. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/nVRD27ZdIH

Choice in dealing with COVID was "suppression, or trading off deaths against the economy.” Suppression did better in every respect. Those that sacrificed lives have tended to end up with high mortality AND economic costs. INET via @martinwolf_ ft.com/content/7fb55f… https://t.co/caRdhOEQgT

Vaccine news triggered the largest 2-week inflow into stock markets worldwide, ever recorded. And the biggest sell off of gold! @BankofAmerica via @SoberLook https://t.co/DC8bjTBQnm

"Why, then, has the economic damage of such a comparatively mild pandemic been so huge?” @martinwolf_ asks Answer "because it could be.” We are rich "The response to the pandemic is a reflection of economic possibilities and social values today" ft.com/content/7fb55f… https://t.co/eKezBl2K2W

The shocks that shaped Putin: Inflation and depreciation of the Ruble in the 1990s are the backdrop for the project of rebuilding the Russian state in the 2000s. sciencedirect.com/science/articl… https://t.co/Y8pnNJL7OF

What are the financial stability risks in the US today? After March spasm, the Fed is seriously worried about maturity transformation by open-ended bond funds. Chartbook Newsletter #4 reviews Fed, ECB and IMF Financial stability reports. Sign up here: adamtooze.substack.com. https://t.co/LjfJCQRdYf

RT @thantmyintu: New study suggests alarming rise in income-based poverty in Myanmar, from 16% in Jan to 62% in Oct due to pandemic related…

RT @tblrj: @adam_tooze As far as France is concerned, the higher hspitalisation rate stems from a more preventive approach. The number of I…

Have the doves won? "Yves Mersch is preparing to take a final stand as one of ECB’s dwindling band of conservative monetary policy hawks by resisting any broadening of its stimulus measures to purchase a wider array of assets.” @MAmdorsky ft.com/content/b04e4b… https://t.co/EvVbWmnmhn

As measured by current rates of Covid hospitalization, the 2nd wave of the epidemic is more than twice as bad in Italy and France than in the US right now (not allowing for regional differences in gigantic US and for future trajectory). ft.com/content/7fb55f… https://t.co/Z3Ye307N2A

Interesting to read this piece on ECB council member Yves Mensch by @MAmdorsky against Chartbook newsletter #4 in which I compare ECB Financial Stability Report with that of Fed and IMF. Signup for the newsletter here: adamtooze.substack.com ft.com/content/b04e4b… https://t.co/rhzXniDHbH