ADAM TOOZE

RT @Brexit: Brexit latest: • EU sees Wednesday as cut-off day • Barnier pessimistic on prospects for deal • Macron, Merkel involved in ne…

@HeatherJamesArt My thoughts very much in gestation, but thanks for asking. It is a very interesting question! Do you have recommendations of stuff I can read?

Of the top 15 arms manufacturers in the world, 7 are US, 4 West European, 3 Chinese, 1 Russian. @SIPRIorg sipri.org/sites/default/… https://t.co/ghsJeAdRcA

How much damage did the unwinding of hedge fund bets do to US Treasury market in March? OFR’s Annual Report puts sell off at $242 billion. A bigger story than the Fed likes to think? For more see the new Chartbook Newsletter #7. Subscribe at adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/1FDrzXicSd

ILO estimates that corona shock has hit women’s pay significantly worse than men’s. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/sU5nBthAFJ

Europe’s renewed efforts to contain its very severe 2nd corona outbreak are succeeding. In the US, not so much. twitter.com/EricTopol/stat…

To ensure continuity of electricity supply grid needs generating capacity that can start quickly. Coal & nuclear plants that boil a giant kettle of steam are slow! Need > 12 h. Nat gas/gas combined cycle & hydro -> 25% of US capacity can fire up in 1 h eia.gov/todayinenergy/… https://t.co/l63u2S0Fae

America has been #1 oil refiner since start of oil age in mid-19th c., but China will dethrone U.S. as early as 2021, according to @IEA New capacity = giant integrated plants heavily focused on plastics -> huge global restructuring & overcapacity risk bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/2R03xAjglv

Right now, we are all in a haze, but wake up in Q4 2021 and you will see a world in which China has made a huge leap forward in relative terms v. Weaker EM & Europeans who are still far away from where they were in Q4 2019. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/q802QMYXwi

Its an unfamiliar world so lets go over this one more time: Vaccine = good news for growth -> 30yr Treasury should sell off BUT Lowflation Fiscal policy paralyzed Fed only game in town -> expect Fed bond buying & i.r. targeting -> 30 yr doesn’t budge. wsj.com/articles/stock… https://t.co/d76FZSWGDv

One bad bit of Vaccine news: Oil major Exxon Mobil is up 23% so far in November, putting it on track for its best month since at least 1972, the year Standard Oil Company of New Jersey renamed itself. @jmackin2 wsj.com/articles/stock… https://t.co/6cccqsL3oZ

What happened in US Treasury markets in 2020? Read the first two parts of a new series Chartbook Newsletter #5 Chartbook Newsletter #7 Interspersed with other important stuff that seems urgent or simply interesting. To get #8 to your email subscribe here: Adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/Uu90MQPup2

When you hear urgent warnings in 2021 of impending surge in US inflation, think of this …. Capacity utilization way down. We AINT there yet! Nice piece of common sense by @readep @DoubleTGolle bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/VYuJmsjNh3

Bolsonaro’s gov in Brazil responded to corona shock with denial on public health AND massive stimulus to deal with econ fallout. Debt market hawks are beginning to worry. Is Bolsonaro leaving their sweet spot of right-populism & conservative economics? thedailyshot.com/2020/12/01/hig… https://t.co/7F99iKNe4c

"They came for the yield and stayed for the currency: why foreigners are buying Chinese bonds like never before" bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/8Xtxj3cSiH

RT @DiMartinoBooth: Positively giddy via @Citi @Quillintel @SoberLook https://t.co/XkA3TfezPi

Trump deficits from 2017 -> surge of US Treasury issuance -> significant slice of US Treasuries ended up precariously balanced in highly leveraged hedge funds. Background to March 2020 shock? Chartbook Newsletter #7 digs deeper. Sign up here: adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/DrgYH1oRkD

Will the Brexit talks “Fail”? @alanbeattie with all guns blazing, responding to a tweet by @kevinhorourke is a formula for a truly BRILLIANT column. So much here! Read and rethink the last 15 years of stalled “multilateralism”! ft.com/content/c6ae94… https://t.co/MV68Vcgnva

RT @kevinhorourke: I don't know if there'll be an EU-UK FTA but if there isn't there'll be talk of "failure". But if there's no deal that'l…

"The story of U.S. inflation in 2021 could very well amount to this: It’s all a mirage.” As service sector activity bounces back and certain key inputs suffer bottlenecks, expect a series of scares! bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/t5YCOloWzc

RT @GeneralTheorist: @Machiavellecon “He wants eleven dollar bills, but you only got ten.” The first second generation currency crisis expo…

How admidst talk of a “new Cold War” and “uncoupling”, China’s sovereign bonds became a significant Global Yield Play with hundreds of billions likely to flow East in years to come. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/gcxIbuJSC4

"Weird Left Finance Twitter” = product of a world in which war on inflation has been “over-won”. "you would have to completely ignore the data to say that deficits lead to higher interest rates and runaway inflation.” This by @AlexYablon is great. businessinsider.com/wall-street-in… https://t.co/cJ7nw8ICBC

RT @RobinWigg: Would seriously read a compilation like this from every generation. "The high street club bangers of the Greatest Generation…

In March 2020 did leveraged hedge funds almost bring the Treasury market down? The debate continues. Fed/OFR/big banks taking different positions. For part II of the Chartbook Newsletter series, check out #7 here: adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/IhCxAD71Tx

This is a really interesting thread in response to a casual comment about Bob Dylan and $ 200m. Thanks @SashoTodorov1 twitter.com/SashoTodorov1/…

@Fredkling Thank you. Is there anything particularly good I can read on this?

Poland’s coalition government is showing fissures over its decision to block the European Union’s $2.2 trillion spending plan, with a junior coalition looking for compromise and local gov and cities looking for way to preserve EU funding! @mmartewicz bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/nbezMC3dGO

Is the Fed underestimating the role of hedge funds in the Treasury market turmoil of March 2020? Chartbook Newsletter #7 Sign up here: adamtooze.substack.com https://t.co/pIiApynhok

Doesn’t that actually feel somewhat underpriced? twitter.com/StuartLWallace…

RT @tconnellyRTE: BREAKING: The EU’s chief negotiator has told MEPs that negotiations on a post-Brexit deal could continue until Wednesday…

@i_aldasoro Thank you so much @i_aldasoro your endorsement really means a lot to me!

RT @i_aldasoro: Subscribe to Chartbook by @adam_tooze adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_campaign=…

We talk a lot about the unbridgeable recalcitrant North-South gap in the EU. Why not try something obvious like doubling R&D spending in Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece. @DeutscheBank via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2020/12/01/hig… https://t.co/12itoURxHm

Gold, Tesla, Ethereum On investing in a world of low growth and inequality -> @tracyalloway: "It's kind of funny how every investment discussion these days ends up touching on Karl Marx.” H/t @AlexYablon podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how… https://t.co/LXPjXeE4YJ

Revisiting the role of hedge funds in the Treasury market turmoil of March 2020. Chartbook Newsletter #7 just posted. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/1wi5elaqdh