The data on global GDP share of China’s SOE are mind-blowing. Compiled on basis of value added estimates by @andrewbatson & @Gavekal -> essential to understand dynamics of Chinese state capitalism. For a 1st take sign up to read Chartbook Newsletter #9 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/5mSisl5nhT
The Dutch culture of cycling is not a fact of nature. It is the product of history, of sustained political action. twitter.com/fietsprofessor…
RT @crossbordercap: Really great piece by @adam_tooze gets to nub of China debate. We are on @michaelxpettis side, not @TheEconomist view,…
It would be really interesting to tease out in greater detail what the relationship between overseas lending by China's policy banks and the current account surplus is. But need to look at bofp gross flows data for that. @KevinPGallagher @andrewbatson twitter.com/KevinPGallaghe…
Very impressive thread this from @KevinPGallagher on the methods on which the BU group based their dataset about overseas loan commitments to govs & state-owned entities from China’s 2 main policy banks operating abroad. What it does include and what not. twitter.com/KevinPGallaghe…
I was part of a flurry of skeptical twitter yesterday about BU's striking new data on Chinese policy bank lending. This is an exhaustive and compelling reply by @KevinPGallagher They give powerful reasons to stand by their data. Broader conclusions about BRI are another matter. twitter.com/KevinPGallaghe…
China’s state-owned enterprises are an economic force of global scale, as @Gavekal @andrewbatson data highlight. But what is trajectory of Chinese state capitalism? Chartbook newsletter #9 plots some contending narratives. For more sign up here: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/gFwJxd3gBx
July 31st expiration of $600/weekly supplemental unemployment benefits coincided with a roughly 20% decline in small business revenue across NYC outer boroughs. Federal assistance is needed to help small businesses survive a difficult winter. comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/new-y… https://t.co/BPLdCHR5Qq
As of November 16th small business revenue was down 68% in Manhattan, 35% in Queens, 34% in Brooklyn, and 23% in the Bronx. Small business revenue was down least in Staten Island (16%), where COVID positivity rates are the highest in New York City. comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/new-y… https://t.co/JHlEQILK76
After a few months of recovery, as of November 15th, New York City small business revenue is still down by 50% from early January. comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/new-y… https://t.co/ud65XGYZzE
As measured by traffic on the City’s bridges, NYC has seen a bicycling boom in 2020. Long may it last! comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/new-y… https://t.co/W5mPCpl3Pf
For what it is worth, Manhattan’s GDP per capita was reported by the BEA in 2019 as $197,847! comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/new-y… https://t.co/usZ3Zp3hRp
Taken at face value, the five boroughs of NYC generate roughly as much GDP as the Netherlands. comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/new-y… https://t.co/jc2I3GGqlD
As lower income New Yorkers drop out of tax system due to heavy unemployment -> average tax withheld per tax payer has gone up by 5.6%. comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/new-y… https://t.co/M1O9mFlKDc
SNAP food stamps and Cash Assistance program help the worst off New Yorker cope. Mar-sep 2020. SNAP enrollment rose by over 220k recipients to a total enrollment of 1.7 m & Cash Assistance grew by 66k to 391k. Queens saw 20 and 30% surge respectively. comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/new-y… https://t.co/hs3HCJIPl1
COVID-19 cost hit to NYC totals c. $4.9bn so far. $2bn are for hotels for homeless and food. $742m for PPE. $149m for ventilators. comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/new-y… https://t.co/bLs1Hr9Hfv
NYC is facing a public transport crisis: MTA ridership has not rebounded enough -> $1.3 billion in service reductions and cut their workforce by 9,367. As of November, the MTA projects cumulative deficits of $15.9 billion through 2024. comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/new-y… https://t.co/CI9k3qub6g
1/3 of NYC workers continue to work from home. V. 1/4 of Americans nationwide. comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/new-y… https://t.co/YF7CZw11T3
In May, at peak of corona shock, the unemployment rate amongst Asian and Latino NYC workers was twice that for white workers. comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/new-y… https://t.co/JmkAYLpFhd
Biden victory -> greater optimism about a fiscal deal for states and cities. But if fed aid relieves the same portion of these gaps as in the “Great Recession,” NY State & NYC still will have to implement gap closing actions totaling $57 bn. cbcny.org/research/feder…
Occupancy figures for NYC hotels understate the savage hit to hospitality sector because they are based on hotels that have stayed open. Hit to sales through August was 90%! Accounts for $2 bn in lost taxes. @cbcny cbcny.org/research/slump… https://t.co/LPNhsAYmG1
Unemployment rate in NYC is currently 13.2% up from 3.6% yoy = loss of 570k jobs. 553k in private sector. labor.ny.gov/stats/pressrel… https://t.co/zUz4jEz7BP
“Demand-side reform”: Great thread from @michaelxpettis on a debate to follow in Beijing this month! twitter.com/michaelxpettis…
Im still hung up on the fact that when you look past the political narrative about “stimulus packages”, the fiscal impulse for US in 2020 is going to be 12.4 % v 9.5% for Euro Area. It is EA that is heading to deflation! Not other way around. imf.org/en/Publication… https://t.co/gZvlna0nZ6
"We now know that total decarbonisation is technically feasible at very low cost.” Transition is an investment in a better future even if you do not account for the climate disaster avoided! @ETC_energy @AdairTurnerUK ft.com/content/33bb37… https://t.co/9OZLh2ubzI
@AugustRemarque @Noahpinion S, totally open to idea that statistical constructs someone like me reads from outside give a simplified view of a chaotic, complex reality. That simplification is the work that they do everywhere and the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Do they "hold together” or not?
@AugustRemarque @Noahpinion Hi. Thanks for your engagement. I will be FIRST to agree that I am not China expert. Just someone trying to make sense of crucial story. But on micro-macro, constructedness of stats, helter- skelter crisis-solving regimes … Ill just point to my 1st two books.
On Friday last carbon allowances in Europe’s Emissions Trading System smashed 31 Euros. Prices expected to stay above 30 throughout 2021. Data from: @BloombergNEF https://t.co/x9ZIsvy3FX
RT @andypeaps: Excellent summary of @WSJ and @TheEconomist contrasting takes on the Chinese economy @adam_tooze adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne…
Russia starts creating commercial fleet of 10,000 ton autonomous vessels offshore-energy.biz/russia-starts-… https://t.co/WLz0yV0S7E
Thank you @Noahpinion thank you! I should emphasize that what I am doing here is no more than laying out the contrasting perspectives of @Lingling_Wei @WSJ v. @michaelxpettis v. @S_Rabinovitch @TheEconomist At this point I am merely arranging the intellectual buffet 🙂 twitter.com/Noahpinion/sta…
@KevinPGallagher @FT Hi Kevin. Great. And you are totally right. I should have formulated my first tweets along the lines of: “Fascinating data, about which I have some questions … “. Thanks for taking time to post a clarification. I look forward to furthering the engagement with them!
@StephenPaduano @lajohnstondr @MacaesBruno @FT I agree that this is the basic issue. Inserting a data set that is intended to do one job into a far broader and more contentious narrative.
@sciencecohen No. THANK YOU. Its a really great piece. By some margin the best out there h/t @70sBachchan Im trying to write a brief chapter on the vaccine race for a short book Im doing on the political economy of 2020 and your piece was fantastic in summing up the Chinese side.
@andrewbatson @MacaesBruno @FT Hi Andrew Im seeing a 300 point surge btw what looks like 2017 and 2019. Bit hard to tell because of the timeline. The BU, when taken as an index of the whole flow (perhaps wrongly), imply a HARD stop in 2018. Do you have those numbers by month/quarter?
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