ADAM TOOZE

Was central bank intervention in 2020 monetary of monetization of fiscal? FT survey of 18 biggest players in UK gilt market found overwhelming majority believe that QE works by buying enough bonds to mop up gov issuance and keeping interest rates low. ft.com/content/f92b6c… https://t.co/ukiQOdZ6Me

RT @swartable: This image caught my eye this morning. There are lots of containers sitting off the coast of Long Beach — each one of these…

If the EU efficiently distributes all the available vaccine orders (a big if), it could be within striking distance of herd immunity by June. @commerzbank via @SoberLook https://t.co/AzrVgwCrLg

Wow really had to double take. Check out this photo! twitter.com/Trois_Ponts/st…

Cost of shipping a 40-foot container Shanghai-Rotterdam is now six times higher than it was in 2019! bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/HgfgBVbmct

@DanielaGabor @jonsindreu @JoMicheII @tomashirstecon @bankofengland So ECB absorbing debt neutralizes pressure from bond markets. BUT because deficits now show up in ECB balance sheet the argument moves there? And into the EU institutions, fiscal rules etc? Instead of bond vigilantes you actually need sheriffs and laws?

@fwred @jonsindreu @DanielaGabor @JoMicheII @tomashirstecon @bankofengland Really interesting. So the conservatives who called him out in 2019, actually had a point, in their own terms?

@DanielaGabor @jonsindreu @JoMicheII @tomashirstecon @bankofengland Like it. But the net effect, when you look at the financial balances, is that we de facto have monetary financing. Non?

@jonsindreu @DanielaGabor @JoMicheII @tomashirstecon @bankofengland So, 2020 we have what looks like a war finance model, looks like an integration of monetary and fiscal policy, what is spoken about that way in the markets. But is, in fact, a haphazard, deniable and denied convergence whose logic is opaque to those supposedly in charge?

For all the furore generated by the EU’s big budget deal, the main burden of fiscal support is being carried on national budgets. How rapidly will they tighten in 2021? And 2022? How will the EU deal with the large discrepancies btw De/NL & Fr/It/Be/Es? @ecb via @SoberLook https://t.co/zANZCb0oRv

@jonsindreu @DanielaGabor @JoMicheII @tomashirstecon @bankofengland That certainly has the ring of truth about it, as a narrative.

@henryfarrell @joecguinan @paulewart23 That was beautifully put. And there is also a haunting and repression at work here: I was so wounded by Brexit. Very angry. So, "I dont want to go back there”, either.

@jonsindreu @DanielaGabor @JoMicheII @tomashirstecon @bankofengland But big, medium and small ARE benchmarked by bank economists/analysts/journalists against deficit/bond issuance numbers. So the ECB doesn’t need to say or even think anything. The "balance of bond market" is being injected into the policy-making process indirectly.

RT @henryfarrell: @adam_tooze @joecguinan @paulewart23 When you’re even semi-prolific, your past online writings become a memory palace – c…

@JoMicheII @DanielaGabor @tomashirstecon @bankofengland Of course. I just didn’t recognize the acronym immediately. sorry.

RT @DanielaGabor: it has this gem: central banks have been backstopping securities market liquidity since Lehman, but didnt want to talk ab…

@DanielaGabor @jonsindreu @JoMicheII @tomashirstecon @bankofengland Hang on @DanielaGabor you lost me on the chronology there. Central banks denied they had power to purchase in Keynesian era? Help me with the chronology here? I thought that denying power to purchase is more important in “cb independence” era.

@DanielaGabor @jonsindreu @JoMicheII @tomashirstecon @bankofengland I dont know about BofE but in the ECB, where the size of its bond purchases is a KEY political and market signal, they surely do have a moment where they add up the deficits, guesstimate bond issuance and figure out how much they need to announce that the ECB is buying. Non?

After the shock of capital flight with which 2020 began, major EM have actually raised their reserves over the course of the year. @TS_Lombard via @SoberLook https://t.co/vhUfTNYCnW

@JoMicheII @DanielaGabor @tomashirstecon @bankofengland dumb question. What is MMLR?

@joecguinan @paulewart23 I mean I TRULY have no memory of writing this. I actually kind of like it. Of course, I dont think you do justice to the force of my point. But I wouldn’t expect us to agree on that. Can totally see why you fasten on the passage that you do. Wow … thanks. Weird experience.

@joecguinan @paulewart23 Losing my mind. Always the most likely option …. Willl have to reread 🙂

If you believe this data, the US has eleven times more retail space per capita than Germany! Via @SoberLook https://t.co/oyHBwsaWsN

@joecguinan @paulewart23 Obviously, Ive never made any secret of fact that I find Lexit both unconvincing and unsympathetic. But I just dont remember this 2*2 and I fear I am getting credit that is owed to someone else. Or perhaps I am losing my mind ….

@joecguinan @paulewart23 Hi @joecguinan I opened this tweet out of casual interest and now I am truly puzzled. You attribute quite an elaborate schema to me here that I can’t honestly remember ever having produced. I cant find a cite in your text. Can you point me in the right direction? Genuine question

When the dangerous wave of capital flight hit in early 2020, the major EM other than China had accumulated reserves of $2.6trn. @TS_Lombard via @SoberLook https://t.co/9zlMzr5W55

As Asian temperatures plunge and there is a shortage of carriers LNG prices are surging relative to levels in the US, triggering a dramatic surge in exports. wsj.com/articles/cold-… https://t.co/XPYnWA4AOt

The three American labour markets: High wage employ on strong upward trend with relatively high resilience. Mid-wage has not risen above 2008 high with big cyclical swings. Low-wage rising but savagely hit in 2020. @MorganStanley via @SoberLook https://t.co/Z5NOOy5MUp

2020 saw both the most sudden and dramatic fall in EM funding and then the most spectacular recovery = driven above all by the huge monetary stimulus delivered by the AE. @IIF via @SoberLook https://t.co/2oYFFWTHPg

What does “history tell us” about the future of the dollar? Well … lets talk about that “history". A brief genealogy of the dollar “assemblage” for @ForeignPolicy foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/15/ris… https://t.co/bD1poMj0dr

EU emissions contracts pushing 35 euros per tonne. Driven by credibility of decarbonization commitments. Self-reinforcing since it exercises painful pressure on all coal-fired power stations. @SoberLook https://t.co/m7lRfj8Lin

RT @_alialkhatib: it's okay if you have a VAGUE sense of why people are so excited that Dr @Alondra Nelson is going to be the deputy direct…

Job losses in the underpaid leisure and hospitality sector in the US are again so severe that they are driving average hourly earnings up. @Piper_Sandler via @SoberLook https://t.co/VBboJQPUrJ

RT @EVE_Virt: @adam_tooze @ForeignPolicy @wonkmonk_ 1971 was such a pivotal year wasn’t it? Particularly in regards to ripple effects in ec…

The Rise and Fall and Rise (and Fall) of the U.S. Financial Empire: I did a new piece for @ForeignPolicy Thanks @wonkmonk_ for that great line 🙂 foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/15/ris… https://t.co/IJ4VXgNrq3

RT @wonkmonk_: The Rise and Fall and Rise (and Fall) of the U.S. Financial Empire: @adam_tooze foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/15/ris… The dollar is dead.…