ADAM TOOZE

The rise in China’s share of the US deficit is a LOT less dramatic than the rise of the US-China trade deficit itself! ft.com/content/26ab63… https://t.co/BpdbdUE3te

"Companies have raised $400bn in funds in the first three weeks of 2021 as the torrent of government and central bank stimulus to rescue global economies cascades across capital markets.” ft.com/content/45770d… https://t.co/j9dyzNFR9n

"Wolfgang Schäuble issues warning on EU recovery fund”. Of Course. But kicker at end about Euro bonds is worth hanging on for! @GuyChazan ft.com/content/ba1771… https://t.co/KGh3AUPH6q

RT @boeckler_de: Kritik an der #Impfstoff-Beschaffung: Hätte mehr Geld geholfen? Oder nur eine ganz andere Industriepolitik? @IMKFlash-Dire…

RT @marinamaral2: Detail: https://t.co/FET96oqcY3

Faced with frothy market central bank is suggesting some tightening of monetary policy. Europe: What? NO! You out of your mind? US: No. But Maybe later. PBoC: Well. Let's see. if we took $12 bn out, what happens to repo? @KangHexin @TomHale_ ft.com/content/357ef6… https://t.co/WBNjk9AlHE

RT @EuroBriefing: .@adam_tooze is right in his analysis of euro area. With each crisis, it ends up weaker. The recovery fund is too little,…

“The taper tantrum left scars on anybody who was working at the Fed at that time,” Powell told the 2019 annual meeting of the American Economic Association. Try being an EM that was in harms way! bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/ZexSzDsOAy

Even within Germany’s CDU there are now voices calling for amendments to the debt brake. ft.com/content/c0379b… https://t.co/nX9Z74f2CG

Protesting farmers in Delhi are contesting the official Republic day celeberations … en masse! Claiming the Red Fort. ft.com/content/0312fd… https://t.co/jR8ixNJZoM

Another highly informative thread from @jfkirkegaard on the vaccine rollout in the EU. Essential reality check this! twitter.com/jfkirkegaard/s…

RT @jfkirkegaard: Comparing DE to England shows comparable current levels at the same stage of the rollout, but no sign of a major accelera…

When will Fed taper is the new topic du jour! Powell was a strong advocate in 2013 -> taper tantrum. Implications for global $ debt and markets of a taper now would be even more dramatic. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/44SpTJkvtT

RT @COdendahl: @tom_nuttall @lucasguttenberg @HBraun @ArminLaschet good question. To force Laschet to tame the Merz crowd early on, and pre…

Schäuble "indicated that” contrary to many in CDU “he did NOT see EU recovery fund as a one-off … he never excluded idea of common EU bonds, “because I know very well that economic and currency union needs to have them”.” This is real kicker! @GuyChazan ft.com/content/ba1771… https://t.co/949amijQcq

@maxkrahe @HBraun @JWMason1 Hi Max love this tread. Will be interesting to see how German discussion processes a paper about US public spending in WWII, inequality and race! Yup. In WWII some quite dramatic things happened on those dimensions one inequality!

RT @maxkrahe: @HBraun's Artikel im @handelsblatt von heute morgen schlägt Wellen. @PhilippaSigl zeigt: im Hintergrund schweben große Fragen…

Why is Euro Area not recovering faster? Why will it not regain 2019 GDP level until 2022? Why is US recovery likely to be far more rapid? Why is this not cause for serious alarm in Brussels and European capitals? I did a new column for @socialeurope socialeurope.eu/europes-long-c… https://t.co/XD2NqRe0qQ

RT @GustavAHorn: "Not enough" thinks @adam_tooze on the European recovery package. I agree. In addition it is too slow. So we must give sp…

RT @RobinBrooksIIF: Core inflation is a good fact-check for consensus output gaps. IMF (lhs) & European Commission (rhs) understated slack…

Chartbook Newsletter #12 just posted. On the dangers of Euro Area complacency. A cause @RobinBrooksIIF @heimbergecon @DanielaGabor and I have been urging for some time. Sign up here: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/kNQNNWMn39

Pfizer reported more than $50 bn in revenue last year. Its Covid-19 vaccine is expected to generate about $14.6 bn in revenue 2021—some of which will be paid out to its German biotech partner BioNTech = important but will not change the firms business. wsj.com/graphics/covid… https://t.co/0veS5QvbiH

"China’s dollar debts rose to 20% of exports by end-2019 (6% at end-2008). South East Asia (70%, up from 24%) and higher still in Latin America (106%, up from 70%).” -> creates vulnerability to exchange rate and dollar funding shocks. voxeu.org/article/global… https://t.co/IW5bZQfydD

RT @i_aldasoro: For more on this, see our article on changing instrument and currency patterns in global liquidity: bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_……

EM have a lot of dollar denominated debt on balance sheet. But also dollar assets -> it is the net position that it is most informative of currency risk. Even more so relative to exports. Big reserves -> positive cushion. voxeu.org/article/global… https://t.co/LfDlSdC9hK

A new taper tantrum could really hurt. "By mid-2020, US dollar credit to non-banks outside the US exceeded $12 trillion, more than 14% of world GDP – up from less than 10% of world GDP in 2007.” @fornilorenzo Philip Turner voxeu.org/article/global… https://t.co/yKzJM6by52

Fernand Braudel took a second-hand movie camera to the archive to photograph thousands of archival documents! lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/… https://t.co/z0Yx1thZkl

RT @adam_tooze: Time’s coverage of Italy: Berlinguer – Red Threat, Agnelli – industrialist as hero, Monti – saviour https://t.co/IzzKv2GTd8

@widespreadhaze Thank you. Very interesting indeed!

@BisciariP @OECDeconomy @LauBooneEco Agreed. But look at the disposable income figures and you see that the US “overcompensated” in 2020. Disposable income after transfers went up by 5% v. down across major EU.

How much discretionary fiscal stimulus has Paris delivered to French economy? Data from @OECDeconomy seem inconsistent. One set of data suggest ZERO. Another 3.9%. May be to do with full-employment budget assumptions? @LauBooneEco oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/39a8… https://t.co/NFbPdL8K0R

Euro area GDP not expected to recover to Q42019 level until Q42022, at which point Spain will still be 3% down. In light of data from @OECDeconomy EU should not be congratulating itself on what was accomplished in 2020, but asking what MORE it can do! oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/39a8… https://t.co/txkkPADUug

Will an epic surge in public debt drive interest rates up? Not in Brazil in 2020 where debt surged by more than 10% of GDP and real interest went negative! oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/39a8… https://t.co/4IBJFG2Swt

Did Europe do enough fiscal policy in 2020? If you take these @OECDeconomy numbers at face value the answer is clear: NO! Euro Area discretionary stimulus = 3% v. 6% for US. France = ZERO Spain = 1% Time to talk about THIS GEN EU! @LauBooneEco oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/39a8… https://t.co/uMybqCOst0

RT @RobinBrooksIIF: @adam_tooze @stefanauer_hku Europe made real progress in 2020. No one is denying that. But that progress needs to be se…

Fascinating data comparing CO2 emissions reductions in EU, US, China from different types of investment. The @EIB Investment Report is really interesting! eib.org/attachments/ef… https://t.co/uR7RjVqZ5f