ADAM TOOZE

The euro despite appreciating against the dollar is broadly at PPP. @Gavekal https://t.co/pj5LSlRqLc

India is bouncing back rapidly from 2020 shock BUT still far from pre-crisis trend, let alone trend pre shadow banking crisis. @SergiLanauIIF invaluable as ever. Follow him here: twitter.com/SergiLanauIIF https://t.co/FeWn7i948V

If I read this complex chart by @SergiLanauIIF correctly: At current interest rates S Africa would need to embark on a fiscal adjustment relative to 2019 fiscal stance equivalent to 4% of GDP to stabilize debt @IIF = recipe for political conflict. thedailyshot.com/2021/02/26/is-… https://t.co/wRqAdfp1Qg

Since 2007 US and EU consumer price inflation is on downward trajectory. @RobinBrooksIIF how does this square with idea that US does not have a lowflation problem? Different price indicators? https://t.co/FUqUaVTdyq

There is inflation and there is runaway inflation. Highly unusual inversion of the break-even curve tells us that markets expect a surge in inflation over next couple of years followed by return to lowflation. @PaulJDavies wsj.com/articles/rare-… https://t.co/ciP3YPNgBO

The surge in US Treasury yields has been the story of the last few weeks. Volatility has risen too, but nowhere near the levels of March. thedailyshot.com/2021/02/26/is-… https://t.co/u7p7J6Mymk

Guess what will be the primary driver of recovery in Germany in 2021! Yup. EXPORTS @DeutscheBank @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2021/02/25/ame… https://t.co/vI6sThjuUS

US mortgage market has expanded 50% since 2008 with banks and Fed absorbing new issuance. @MorganStanley via @SoberLook Almost all of new mortgages are GSE backed but no longer held on their balance sheets. https://t.co/cOv7he6ilG

The Eurozone will bounce back in 2021 but nowhere near fast enough given impact of 2020 shock! @gavekal via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2021/02/25/ame… More grist to the argument of Chartbook Newsletter #13 sign up here: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/wXdxLfCzzv

Secular stagnation in historical perspective. This is a really interesting set of slides by Backhouse and Boianovsky. Shows how idea once ran deep at Harvard/MIT and in Samuelson textbook @boeckler_de boeckler.de/pdf/v_2015_10_… https://t.co/smWivH0kew

@georgeeaton Whereas Labour itself seems to be backing away from radicalism of McDonnell agenda. E.g. making totem out of Bank of England independence. Is that the correct impression?

@dippoliti The virus and mutation is the thing to worry about. Every available shot needs to be in a body -> raising overall resistance. Everything else secondary.

“Are we at a paradigm shift? That’s what people are worried about, that history isn’t much of a guide for us now,” said Joyce Chang, chair of global research at JPMorgan. ft.com/content/1982fa… https://t.co/uB6cL5xoig

"The Gulf Stream system has weakened to its slowest pace in more than a thousand years, according to scientists, as global warming makes the powerful ocean current that controls much of the Atlantic Ocean slow down." ft.com/content/589d03… https://t.co/MrubWyxYes

Ahmed Zaki Yamani, legendary Saudi oil minister, 1930-2021 Pivotal figure in OPEC & formation of Saudi Aramco. Also wrote legislation in 1960 abolishing slavery in Saudi Arabia. ft.com/content/ee1aba… https://t.co/MnxPiG8xo9

With America's giant new stimulus package working its way through Congress the trans-atlantic gap in crisis response widens further. ft.com/content/21c4bd… The backdrop to Chartbook Newsletter #13 on the inadequacy of the EU response. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/DvwpjTrDpt

210 ships passed within 50km of the coast of Israel and Lebanon from February 10 to February 12 and may have been source of horrible bunker fuel oil spill that is polluting their coasts. ft.com/content/8185d8… https://t.co/chsSDW883A

Representatives of Opec and western petroleum companies during talks in Vienna in 1973. Facing Yamani was a rude awakening for Western negotiators. ft.com/content/03a6b2… https://t.co/V3L8YphYbD

Folks are freaking out over yield surge but real yield has barely budged. Bad news is that for real yields to move like they did in 2013 would take an even bigger nominal shift that would really rattle the nerves. @RobinWigg ft.com/content/441ca3… https://t.co/RicFFeJ4jG

Whereas in the US “fiscal thrust” will add 1.8% to U.S. output this year. For the euro zone, it’ll subtract 0.1%. @BloombergQuint h/t @acemaxx For more on this huge transatlantic imbalance check out and sign up for Chartbook Newsletter #13 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… https://t.co/8OklUkEf7e

RT @hoyer_kat: 150 years ago #OTD, indemnity payments for the Franco-Prussian war were set. 1200 chests filled with specially minted Goldma…

Return of the bond vigilantes: will inflation fears spoil the post-pandemic party? Or will CB intervention dominate? Nicely hedged this by @RobinWigg ft.com/content/542d61… https://t.co/ZxENMvQNl3

Interesting this from @BachmannRudi "Politicized economics was always wanted in Germany from the political side and in particular from conservative-liberals who needed ideological counterweight to "scientific" Marxism. Now the SPD wants it too, as debate about SVR shows." twitter.com/BachmannRudi/s…

RT @zeithistoriker: some light weekend reading @YaleBooks https://t.co/ky82ra2TiM

Whenever you see a chart showing a dramatic surge in commodity prices in 2021, pan out for the long view. This aint nothing compared to 2007-8! ft.com/content/441ca3… https://t.co/FEv5BycZjr

@weltbuch @Ole_Funke

Germany is failing to deliver shots which it has in stock. HUGE variation across states. Hamburg 34%. Saxony a barely believable 5%. @Ole_Funke twitter.com/Ole_Funke/stat…

In 1994 James Carville said he wanted to come back to life as the bond market because you could intimidate anybody. Well, we are not there yet in the bond market. And given cb intervention & prevailing macro trends it would be a “surprise” if we did. ft.com/content/542d61… https://t.co/gQBu3gqFhR

RT @pisaniferry: 84% des doses AstraZeneca livrées à la France sont encore au frigo ? Quasiment 1 million ? Il ne faut pas s’étonner que ce…

A few weeks ago President Macron declared to @AtlanticCouncil that he wanted to revived a “results-orientated multilateralism”. I had the chance to prod him about vaccines. Now we have the shambles of the AstraZeneca vaccine. What “result" is this? youtube.com/watch?v=J31lSk… https://t.co/MBqqO36dys

@Jayati1609 Even more grotesque if you simply don’t use them. Utterly shameful!

Germany has built up a stockpile of 1.75 m unused doses of AstraZeneca vaccine. In East German states delivery is as low as 5%. This is a grotesque misallocation of resources that are critically scarce at global level. Reallocate to low income countries NOW. https://t.co/OOP8eRM1ug

Unused vaccines are a crime. 95 % of the AstraZeneca vaccine delivered to German state of Saxony have not been used. Further deliveries should cease. Reallocation to low income countries NOW. https://t.co/8Ududd6qA1 https://t.co/T48cDYc9CU

France had administered 16% of 1.1m doses of AstraZeneca received. Germany, Italy 20%, Spain < 33%. Unless that rate rises all new supply should be reallocated to low income countries. We need to get shots in people’s arms. Unused shots = a crime. ft.com/content/767fdd… https://t.co/BlWeCxfyeY

RT @martin_anota: "D’autres solutions que l’annulation de la dette existent pour garantir un financement stable et pérenne" (@DanielaGabor,…

RT @heimbergecon: Potential output estimates follow actual GDP too closely – particularly striking in the €zone periphery! IMF potential ou…