ADAM TOOZE

RT @MGSchmelzer: "Ungeachtet ihres Namens ist das, was die Neu-Keynesianer überwachen, in Wirklichkeit die Grenze des tatsächlich existiere…

Mexico’s 2020 GDP contraction was brutal, still continuing at the end of the year and unmitigated by substantial stimulus. Spillover from the US was significant prop. @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2021/05/03/wag… https://t.co/M16fskMJWl

Like the central banks swap facilities for $, the lines established by the ECB reflect complex criteria, boundaries of inclusion/exclusion, degrees of integration, size etc. Swap with Denmark and Bulgaria. Repo with Romania and Hungary. ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/dat… https://t.co/S7B64pWRIq

"If technological prowess, rather than hordes of young men, is the key to future power then China is well placed despite its plateauing population." This by @gideonrachman Is excellent. ft.com/content/ae51b1… https://t.co/fl3s2jRGse

Shanghai freight rates are pushing to new highs. The impact on the European routes is particularly intense. thedailyshot.com/2021/05/03/wag… https://t.co/wkOWFI6Q1h

Paul Krugmans Karriere als Bildungsroman. Danke für die Übersetzung @MakronomMagazin ! twitter.com/MakronomMagazi…

RT @FactTank: Nearly half of U.S. Asians (45%) live in the West, with nearly a third (30%) in California alone. California had an Asian pop…

RT @benedictevans: New York is not back yet. https://t.co/H7YNmd3gXz

Steel producers estimate that EU carbon price is now costing them c. €95 per tonne of steel produced (the production of one tonne, on average, emits two tonnes of CO2). That is almost 10 per cent of the current steel price near €1,000 a tonne. ft.com/content/17e157… https://t.co/HLDmfHxdLG

As carbon prices in EU’s ETS head towards 50euro per ton, European industrial groups have stepped up calls for the EU to hasten the introduction of a carbon border tax. Tata steel is adding a 12euro per ton surcharge to European steel. ft.com/content/17e157… https://t.co/UtpskgL7EA

The swing variables in Euro-area inflation are exogenous – oil and food. If anyone in Europe starts worrying about inflation and the ECB, just ask them how significantly they think Europe’s monetary policy stance affects oil prices and global commodities. thedailyshot.com/2021/05/03/wag… https://t.co/ytWeatnUdD

The big worry in the Eurozone since 2008 is divergence. 2020 is likely to make it even worse. This graph should be top of stack for every EU decision-maker every day! thedailyshot.com/2021/05/03/wag… https://t.co/dv6FgEZCEq

Germany’s setback in Q1 dragged EZ as a whole into a double dip recession in Q1 2021. Portugal weighs far less heavily in the balance, but it has taken a really grievous hit in Q1. thedailyshot.com/2021/05/03/wag… https://t.co/VjbaBhsZHT

Wages in the US have now recovered to their pre-COVID levels. No substantial increase over a 12 month period. Driven by rebound in low wages @MizuhoAmericas Via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2021/05/03/wag… https://t.co/Imp57YjyBt

In March 2021 income from wages and other private sources was finally up v. Feb 2020. But the really big difference was made by stimulus checks. thedailyshot.com/2021/05/03/wag… https://t.co/wQjJql2tnX

Nehmt den Wessis das Kommando – take command away from the West Germans One of @dieLinke slogans in Sachsen-Anhalt election in June. spiegel.de/politik/deutsc… https://t.co/4XZiNYGXGz

After judgement of German constitutional court, CDU/CSU are debating more money for more rapid exit from coal and a carbon price increase towards 45 euro per ton in 2023. Greens are setting pace with their demand for 60 euros per ton by 2023. spiegel.de/politik/deutsc… https://t.co/bXt6kTesEh

RT @DavidBeckworth: Great reminder that the “dash for cash” in March 2020 was just that: a dash for dollars not treasuries. When the financ…

“You have EV supercycle & you add a real commodity supercycle on top of that — it’s game on for miners,” Price for palladium, used in catalytic converters to filter exhaust gases, rose to > $3,000 an ounce as EU & CN announced new emissions standards. ft.com/content/1332da… https://t.co/bSmrr393ME

Australia’s department of defence is reviewing whether to scrap a contentious lease to a Chinese company of Darwin port, which is located close to a US Marines base. Lease acquired in 2015 for A$506m judged harmless at the time. @jeremysmyth ft.com/content/29e736… https://t.co/DDvKo8xqR9

“We have gone from China being the only story in commodities for the last 10 years to now the rest of the world picking up the baton and being real contributors to the demand side of the equation.” ft.com/content/1332da… https://t.co/IC73tHD4gK

RT @b_judah: Who and more importantly what is the European Union? Thank you to @ollywiseman for starting me on this project for @TheCriticM…

RT @peterswimm: Having an awful day, but this cheered me up. newyorker.com/culture/the-ne… https://t.co/n5yNpYiSrq

How big were EU and US fiscal reactions to the 2020 shock? The latest ECB estimates confirm the impression that US discretionary measures were 85% larger. Allowing for automatic stabilizers the gap shrinks to 46%. ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b… https://t.co/b8FR0XApTs

The biggest difference in Euro area v. US GDP in 2020 is due NOT to consumption, despite huge US fiscal support, but to sharp contraction of EZ investment and net exports. Corporate Europe much harder hit by global recession. ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b… https://t.co/lIKMAvJxQ7

RT @Rinoire: #Porsche Type 64 https://t.co/wAsFfjspos

By 2023 the EU is going to have to come to grips with a world in which debt/gdp ratios have leapt by 11%. Suspending debate about fiscal rules is undoubtedly wise. Can it be continued ad infinitum? Presumably not. ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b… https://t.co/3ZAZTQGivf

RT @MarcDavenant: This less well known photo shows the context of Lange’s iconic photograph of Florence Owens Thompson and her children. Th…

Is Europe doing enough to speed recovery? 2021 cyclically adjusted deficit projected to contract. Some of that is driven by recovery -> lower emergency spending. More properly cyclical. What we are not seeing as of March 21 is big new stimulus. ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b… https://t.co/xL6jYEeJn9

RT @TomRanzweiler: Forty-one percent of senior- or mid-level Biden White House staffers — or 82 people out of 201 aides analyzed — have Ivy…

Global imports took a huge hit in 2020. V. Bad for exporters. China was the great exception. Though it did not deliver a 2008-style stimulus, its imports were broadly neutral = very significant prop for its key trading partners. ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b… https://t.co/SfKkpKhVar

"Interdependencies in the euro area derivatives clearing network were analysed using a multi-layer network analysis based on cleared derivatives transactions data reported under EMIR.” Cue … more AMAZING graphics. ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/eurosy… https://t.co/TGEhsKcc1b

RT @BCoeure: @adam_tooze Good work was done in 2018 between global standard-setters to map interdependencies between CCPs (financial exposu…

How effective is the EU Money Market Fund Regulation? Lessons from the COVID‑19 turmoil in March 2020. This paper by Capota et al (2021) is fantastic ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-… https://t.co/zskw8aMqdM

Higher energy prices do squeeze industry. A $75 per ton carbon price would not be good for industrial jobs in Southern Germany and Northern Italy. But total impact is not huge: 150k, 80k in Germany and 35k in Italy, out of 14m industrial jobs. ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps… https://t.co/aEfpqJZQRZ

The ECB’s “network” of repo lines is a less than impressive clutch! ecb.europa.eu/pub/annual/htm… https://t.co/w8AzpNANQd