ADAM TOOZE

To gauge some of the issues around a Draghi Presidency in Italy, it is useful to go back to the controversy around the "Savona crisis" of 2018. Sign up for Chartbook Newsletter # 70 here: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-70… As ever learned a lot from @battleforeurope even if we disagree. https://t.co/V5oByAP8F7

@S_Stantcheva @JoshuaMound HI Stefanie, sorry took it second hand from @SoberLook Can you send link to your paper. Will eagerly recirculate.

Americans are wildly overoptimistic about chances of upward social mobility. Europeans are pessimistic. Actual mobility higher in Europe than in the US. thedailyshot.com/2022/01/12/sma… https://t.co/YLfRLj0ODY

Rising container shipping costs have contributed to a growth in container traffic transiting Russia via rail, rising 40 percent, yoy, in September 2021 to 782,000 TEU -> supply chain squeeze in case of sanctions would be nasty. documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099… https://t.co/66tTWobqlf

New York state has a union density of 24.7% according to data by @EconomicPolicy thedailyshot.com/2022/01/12/sma… https://t.co/s2ruKBnwug

How long will it be before we can stop pretending that winding down the fossil fuel sector in complex, diversified economies like the USA/CAN/AUS is a big deal? Not tomorrow…by 2030-50. Where is the appetite for creative destruction when you need it! documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099… https://t.co/w4bBNrMkdt

As container shipping rates have exploded, freight costs for rail shipment from China to EU via Russia have remained stable and have become much more competitive since September 2020! documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099… https://t.co/SBDYyU3Qbg

We all know why they do, but in global comparative terms the fact that US, Australia and Canada huff and puff as much as they about the energy transition is staggering. You just wouldn’t predict the difference to the EU from the underlying econ structure. documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099… https://t.co/oN1KG2bPeq

Whatever is happening in European gas markets, there certainly isn’t any shortage of Russian gas production. Supply is another matter. thedailyshot.com/2022/01/12/sma… https://t.co/EKD2XIujf0

To absorb fossil fuel revenue, Russia has a National Welfare Fund whose rules were tightened in 2018. Rate of accumulation surged and in 2021 fx purchases accelerated. documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099… https://t.co/6BdxJpJeAX

Evercore expects global oil demand to peak in the early 2030s. thedailyshot.com/2022/01/12/sma… https://t.co/emcUcGLMeb

If, as seems reasonable to believe, Russia began planning & preparation for an escalation of military tension in Ukraine in Q3/4 2020, there is little sign of this in published figures for government spending. documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099… https://t.co/IUYOu0SF06

Commodities are a major component of Russia’s economy. In 2019 they accounted for more than 10 percent of economic activity, nearly 70 percent of total goods exports, and around 21 percent of fiscal revenues. documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099… https://t.co/zMt1nHY7xE

Net inflows of private capital to Russia have been rising over 2020-2021. By August 2021 were close to their highest level since 2015, while the share of non-resident holdings of government debt securities has also rebounded attracted by high Russian rates documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099… https://t.co/n9Z3ItvGrL

Betting on stimulus: as inflation in China slows, iron ore prices rise anticipating stimulus from Beijing. thedailyshot.com/2022/01/12/sma… https://t.co/5SaK8FQPmS

Construction activity in China continues to decline. thedailyshot.com/2022/01/12/sma… https://t.co/vuZRW3Bv3c

Comparative advantage. It may be reductive to describe Russia as a petrostate, but as far as its trade account is concerned it is certainly raw materials that dominate – oil, gas and other commodities. documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099… https://t.co/Ems3D9QmiI

One place not experiencing inflation is China. PBoC should have room to do stimulus. thedailyshot.com/2022/01/12/sma… https://t.co/W4VOf5dsqV

After the BRICS there was BUMR – Brazil/USA/Mexico/Russia. Four big countries (oops I almost typed EM) with high excess COVID mortality. documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099… https://t.co/CmnKL7rR7J

Italy is one of the few economies in the world where house prices are still below the 2006 peak and are not rebounding. thedailyshot.com/2022/01/12/sma… https://t.co/RfBF79iRSV

@NataleLabia @nientediniente1 @delfavero_d @ForeignPolicy I could not agree more.

@gabrielecatania @heimbergecon Much appreciated.

@LucaMorandini4 @ForeignPolicy And he was not promoted by a president in the way the others were.

RT @shah8comment: @adam_tooze If people are interested, they can read Samar Soliman's The Autumn of Dictactorship;Fiscal Crisis and Politic…

@gabrielecatania @heimbergecon Very interested to know – seriously – where you think I fall short. (Apologies for the title … as so so often not of my choosing)

The Cleveland Fed term-structure of inflation expectations measure is not signaling much deanchoring. @policytensor is not convinced and works the data to derive what he sees as a more convincing indicator of inflationary destabilization. policytensor.substack.com/p/the-term-str… https://t.co/hsxipM7zue

Before 2008, household debt in the Anglophone economies seemed to be on the same trajectory. Since 2008 not so much. US has deleveraged. UK plateaued. Aus, NZ continue to leverage up. thedailyshot.com/2022/01/14/us-… https://t.co/FNDFa13ZJP

"Egypt is not Lebanon in one crucial regard: Egypt is widely viewed as too big to be allowed to fail." Alarming report this! pomed.org/snapshot-follo… https://t.co/AOiInTdX2e

Given the shortages in Europe, US LNG exports are at record levels. thedailyshot.com/2022/01/14/us-… https://t.co/xq6Ku8cf8E

When we talk about the energy transition and structural change I have this question. How big is it relative to what is going to happen anyway? Or has happened e.g. America’s great migrations since the 1850s? Anyone know anything good to read on this? depts.washington.edu/moving1/black_… https://t.co/pv09ee6hs5

Stocks of aluminum at the London Metal Exchange are at record lows. thedailyshot.com/2022/01/14/us-… https://t.co/Mbw8YDcA0Q

Worried about pressure on low-income households from spiking energy prices? Best answer is not to pressure OPEC+ into increasing output. Focus on Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which had its funding doubled by last year’s $1.9tn stimulus bill. ft.com/content/f9a18c… https://t.co/RkSoI2eghM

The Turkish lira has slumped back down to 14 to the $ thedailyshot.com/2022/01/14/us-… https://t.co/tiT0AGFrPZ

XOP, the shale-heavy equity index, has bounced back in the last year. But it is Nowhere near its highs. ft.com/content/f9a18c… https://t.co/7cA3JLj06i

Elevated energy prices are driving India’s trade account deep into deficit. thedailyshot.com/2022/01/14/us-… https://t.co/NtBA8xA5G3

enterprise value to earnings before interest, depreciation, and amortisation ratio, or EV/ebitda ratio, is a measure of how much markets like a sector’s prospects. … and they dont like shale! ft.com/content/f9a18c… https://t.co/tzSZTfgrD6