ADAM TOOZE

Wow … it seems EU IS really ramping up. Russian Central bank assets ARE in play. For possible ramifications check out Chartbook #87 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-87… twitter.com/KiraTaylor15/s…

RT @kopalo: After the African statements at UNSC, the shameful mistreatment of Africans fleeing Ukraine at EU borders is a slap in the face…

@jsuedekum @bundesbank That press conference is going to be big.

@jsuedekum Thanks Jens. We are all learning fast, aren’t we. Absolutely horrifying!

RT @henryfarrell: This is a tiny and purely personal point, but it is very strange to move from a world of what's-that?/¯_(ツ)_/¯ about SW…

RT @JavierBlas: @TonyFratto Full banking sanctions (without general licenses), secondary sanctions, plus sectorial sanctions to oil and gas…

Sanctions on Russia’s central bank would be a huge escalatory step in the sanctions war. @Griboyedov1 is doing great sleuthing here. Should have references in Chartbook #87 on sanctions. Apologies. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-87… twitter.com/Griboyedov1/st…

@MonaAli_NY_US I entirely agree … yesterday I thought I knew where we were. Today I feel that may be an illusion.

@shah8comment I think you may be right. Is this going to be another moment for common EU fiscal mechanisms to kick in: energy for Germany/italy/trade offset for Visigrad …?

Coming out of world of macrofinance and constrained geopolitical contest, it is natural to see big fx reserves as a useful financial cushion, for Russia in ’08 & '14 & for EM in 2020. But, in world of all out (financial) war, all bets are off Chartbook #87 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-87… https://t.co/XYa2E7EWOJ

RT @henryfarrell: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-87… Very helpful summary from @adam_tooze . This by @esaravalle (who is quoted in Adam’s piece) provi…

Is the sanctions debate moving on from the correspondent banking/SWIFT debate to even more radical steps? Action against Russian central bank? Stops on oil and gas purchasing? Chartbook #87 tracks the sanctions debate of the last 48 hours. Sign up here: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-87… https://t.co/Zvr5fIkNtn

@UliKnkel @edwardfishman @SonyKapoor @GeneralTheorist You are most welcome. Been a hive mind effort these last few days.

@ntrickett16 @IikkaKorhonen @BuddyYakov @jeff_hawn Thanks Nick … hugely appreciated.

Are we on the brink of all out financial war with Russia? Chartbook #87 just dropped. An effort to take stock of the sanctions debate the last few days. H/t to @edwardfishman @SonyKapoor @GeneralTheorist and many more! adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-87… https://t.co/XuaxRUiC8a

RT @CampbellMacD: UAE-mouthpiece The National has ordered its foreign staff not to refer to Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an invasion. Co…

@Frances_Coppola @doobeedoo2 Yup. But SWIFT is nevertheless a step. Beyond that the really hard decisions are on correspondent banking and energy.

RT @tom_nuttall: Not just enabling third party deliveries, but now direct arms supplies too. Extraordinary shift.

Admirable restraint @christogorev but the devil is in the detail. The real test is how far they go on ending purchases of Russian oil and gas. twitter.com/christogrozev/…

RT @grudkev: Wow, Germany has finally agreed to send weapons to Ukraine. Putin managed to cross everyone's red line.

RT @SFischer_EU: “The Russian invasion marks a turning point. It is our duty to support #Ukraine to the best of our ability in defending ag…

SWIFT/correspondence sanctions will cause havoc in Russian financial system. But the crucial question, as @edwardfishman @jfriedlanderdc insist, is how far you are actually willing to go in throttling your own and global demand for Russian oil and gas. twitter.com/adam_tooze/sta…

EU plans to cut emissions 55% by 2030 -> lowers gas demand from 392 bcm in 2030 to 315 bcm = enough to halve dependence on Russia. Add better use of existing LNG capacity -> 93% cut in Russian imports by 2030 is possible on current plans. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… https://t.co/y5IBwfZX4k

@analerevenga This, again and again, is the question.

“We are working flat out on how to limit the collateral damage of decoupling from SWIFT in such a way that it affects the right people,” Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said in a statement. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/tPUvnMbj3w

SWIFT is on the table now. Germans have shifted position. Italians too. French finance minister calls it a ‘financial nuclear weapon’ bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/jOZ5L430s5

@jfriedlanderdc @edwardfishman @AmbDanFried @brianoftoole @Levitt_Matt @JCZarate1 @greenwald00 @dantannNYC @RosenbergEliz @katecbauer @NeilBhatiya @KharonData @reziemba @HagarChemali Thank you Julia. So far, it is right to say isn’t it, that the carveouts have been generous and specifically designed, as per State Dept yesterday, not to create additional stress in oil markets.

Oil surging to $120 would add 1.3 % to the transitory inflation peak in US. By early 2023 forecast from @terminal is for 2.3% bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/NVug0KoxM2

@ntrickett16 @IikkaKorhonen @BuddyYakov @jeff_hawn Thanks!

@ntrickett16 @IikkaKorhonen @BuddyYakov @jeff_hawn Cheers.

@edwardfishman @jfriedlanderdc @AmbDanFried @brianoftoole @Levitt_Matt @JCZarate1 @greenwald00 @dantannNYC @RosenbergEliz @katecbauer @NeilBhatiya @KharonData @reziemba @HagarChemali Hi Eddie thanks for clarifying. But I feel like I am not getting something. It is correct, right, that GL8 explicitly opens the door to energy purchases so long as payment is done via a non-sanctioned, non-US entity? So your proposal would negate GL8?

RT @Griboyedov1: Russia’s central bank said in January that it held it held $94.66 billion worth of reserves in “other national central ban…

RT @M_C_Klein: Glad to see people digging into this. Nobody publishes the information so the only way to get an answer is ask and hope you…

Lot of self-accusation right now about inadequate European military capacity and demands for greater spending. BUT spending by non-US NATO members already comfortably exceeds Russia’s spending. It is just extraordinarily dispersed and inefficient. economist.com/graphic-detail… https://t.co/TE1jYfHsu2

@ntrickett16 @IikkaKorhonen @BuddyYakov @jeff_hawn Ok. I see what you are getting at. Have you written this up anywhere? The slowdown after 2014 narrative is out there, Kudrin et al. But the “fragilization” narrative you are sketching is more interesting.

@jfriedlanderdc @AmbDanFried @brianoftoole @Levitt_Matt @JCZarate1 @greenwald00 @dantannNYC @RosenbergEliz @katecbauer @NeilBhatiya @KharonData @edwardfishman @reziemba @HagarChemali Hi @jfriedlanderdc what about GL8 and the promise, yesterday from State, not to touch oil? Doesnt there need to be an explicit commitment precisely to hit energy?