ADAM TOOZE

For all the shocking inflation numbers, the market no longer sees the fed funds rate hitting 3% in this tightening cycle. thedailyshot.com/2022/04/14/bus… https://t.co/jIzp4Xp7gt

Share of investors expecting a fall in profits is now as large as in 2008! @SoberLook with all the great charts thedailyshot.com/2022/04/13/rea… https://t.co/ttL6mL8KpT

RT @MrPtrickyD: Happy Easter! What belongs to the Catholic Church? 277,000 square miles of property (maybe). However, the nature of that o…

Since March we have been talking about the financial ramifications of commodity market stress. See Chartbook #100. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-10… Now Dallas Fed weighs in with measured assessment of risks. dallasfed.org/research/econo… https://t.co/kFUapf2rG5

From mid-March to mid-April bad news from China took oil prices down. Now that seems to be reversing. thedailyshot.com/2022/04/14/bus… On the precarious balance of forces see Chartbook #112 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/P3yI4wUZzU

Longview Economics expects the oil market deficit to persist through early next year. Meaning analysts expect oil to stay in the $90-100 range for foreseeable. Via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/04/13/rea… https://t.co/doScqQnAUw

"Clause by clause, covenant by covenant, sovereign debt instruments have been intentionally and systematically stripped of every provision that might safeguard the interests of creditors”. Yup you read that right. @FTAlphaville hosting lenders advocate! ft.com/content/a57538… https://t.co/KotfdVTiGP

Stocks at metal exchanges are at a low ebb. But talk of crisis needs to be put in context of secular decline of stocks held. thedailyshot.com/2022/04/14/bus… https://t.co/IcayBh8C2Q

Glencore is the only Europe-listed diversified miner that offers meaningful exposure to thermal coal, so has been among investor’s wartime stocks of choice. @FTAlphaville ft.com/content/87a87e… https://t.co/WEf3kJu2KN

Coal stocks at Indian power plants are still too tight for comfort. @JKempEnergy via @SoberLook On the Asian energy crisis of 2021 see Chartbook #51 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-51… https://t.co/QVK8KWixgJ

Russian oil is selling at same discount in Asia as it is piped out of Baltic or Black Sea. @rbrtrmstrng @EthanYWu of @FT Unhedged on why China offers Russia little relief for its oil exports ft.com/content/1c293b… https://t.co/Hc0G8tbL83

Like it or not, China’s imports of semiconductors come from US and its allies. thedailyshot.com/2022/04/14/bus… https://t.co/4mcebHXs63

Since the end of last year growth in US has slowed sharply and that may be no bad thing. "A calm little slowdown may be our best shot at avoiding a nasty big one.” @rbrtrmstrng @EthanYWu ft.com/content/1c293b… https://t.co/iOLkpvAmit

Chinese Policy Banks Gave No New Overseas Energy Sector Loans in 2021 bu.edu/gdp/2022/03/14… https://t.co/vi9sDyOcnT

A record 904 drilling permits in the Permian basin were issued in March, according to data from consultancy Rystad Energy — well above the monthly average of 400-500. ft.com/content/90ddfb… https://t.co/JVgixbG5zZ

Imports hit by COVID mean that China’s trade surplus is heading for a new record. @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/04/14/bus… https://t.co/xEzWyQmjgr

BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink’s pay rose to $36mn in 2021 of which $1.5m is base. Just in case you needed a reminder that GIANT asset management does not equal private equity or hedge fund capitalism. ft.com/content/f9cffe… https://t.co/JlKy38rtAA

Current surge in prices, brings the price level to where it should have been if the US had stayed on a 2% trend from 2012. thedailyshot.com/2022/04/14/bus… For more on inflationary picture see Chartbook #112 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/sOlRuIZ0VE

Will inflation squeeze on low incomes show up in greater loan delinquency and stress on downmarket lenders? wsj.com/articles/inves… For a roundup on inflation, see Chartbook #112 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/NW1e1LfXKH

On Shock Therapy in China and Eastern Europe this meta-review, Chartbook #37 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-37… twitter.com/mmpiatkowski/s…

RT @lea_ypi: Rosa Luxemburg is now in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy! I wrote the entry and it covers (or tries to cover) everythi…

RT @MuBuMiner: Latest donation of #coalmining books & documents, from a local history colleague. Mainly about East Midlands coalmining, som…

RT @PeterContiBrown: We at Wharton’s Business, Economic, and Financial History project cannot wait to welcome @KalebNygaard, who will join…

RT @alexandreafonso: One clear relationship: the share of manual workers and the Le Pen vote share last weekend. https://t.co/quxW7N0VXd

You might think that Shanghai lockdown would be driving freight rates crazy. But so far no sign of that, as @senoj_erialc points out. Chartbook #112 on the conflicting inflationary and disinflationary forces at work in current moment. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/jv0dZrfHwy

The distinctive thing about current inflationary moment seems to be the extraordinary mixed signals being generated by a. normalization of post-COVID situation b. New COVID situation in China and c. Putin’s war. Chartbook #112 maps the pressure lines adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/EKqlnOVOGD

Inflation is biting, but will it last and what will be the drivers. Chartbook #112 just dropped pulling together work by @M_C_Klein @senoj_erialc @SoberLook @RobinBHarding adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11…

The governor of Texas is facing growing calls to abandon a vehicle inspection programme that has led to blockades and long queues at Mexico border crossings, threatening billions of dollars in trade at a time when supply chains are already under strain. ft.com/content/d6e7d0… https://t.co/ob1LEIhr7V

Dangerous unanchoring of wages? Wage-price spiral? Return to 1970s? None of above! Us real weekly earnings now below pre-COVID trend. So inflation = enemy#1? Hike rates? NO focus on supporting low incomes & curbing sectoral price pressure! thedailyshot.com/2022/04/13/rea… https://t.co/zQT5DJfoWg

Before the current crisis, members of the Rajapaksa family headed up a third of Sri Lanka’s 28 ministries, including Mahinda as prime minister ft.com/content/70dd26… https://t.co/QJjQInRxC6

When we write the history of the Biden admin’s pivot to fossil fuel productivism gas-executive Hochstein and “war footing”-Granholm will have key roles. ft.com/content/048ea2… https://t.co/1ysxRAOkOc

So we aren’t supposed to call this transitory, so what are we going to call this? The inflation hump? Spike? thedailyshot.com/2022/04/13/rea… https://t.co/rY7NMuhXpx

“The crisis is a creation”: Smart activists protest against rising living costs outside the Central Bank of Sri Lanka in Colombo on March 30! ft.com/content/70dd26… See Chartbook #108 for background on global debt stress adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-10… https://t.co/RYVnVRQVZd

Do those calling for severe rate hikes think that the best way to address America’s inflation is to squeeze the living daylights out of the service sector i.e. vast majority of economy, because, well, energy is beyond reach? thedailyshot.com/2022/04/13/rea… https://t.co/4AAQuJf1RZ

Do US petrol prices warrant an emergency response? Obviously if you are the Biden admin facing midterms and down in polls. But in real terms, US petrol prices are not at record levels. So this does amount to a form of featherbedding. ft.com/content/048ea2… https://t.co/PH83bWbC9s

Greece’s public debt may touch220% of GDP. European planning assumes primary surplus from here until 2060 of 2.2% of GDP. According to IMF, no country has achieved that in recent years. Chartbook #111 on unreality of fiscal conservatism. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-11… https://t.co/y1Pua3yCFa