ADAM TOOZE

China COVID worries depress iron ore futures below Jan 1st 2022 levels. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/16/the… https://t.co/4kr9gDcx0i

Mid June saw a serious shock to financing costs of Romania and Hungary. @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/20/fur… https://t.co/JBEEhw9LMm

@christiantsfy The language comes direct from @FT

"The ECB has now bought itself time and by moving relatively early and quickly, the central bank has at least broken the psychology that selling Italy’s BTPs is a one-way bet." @ericlonners favors targeting spreads. ft.com/content/7cfb85… https://t.co/KWgWGgl0I3

Despite the war, in 2021 Ethiopia’s mainly agricultural economy grew 6.3 per cent, according to the IMF. War was relatively localized. Spending was a stimulus and loss of assets not counted. ft.com/content/a74b54… https://t.co/loE0nH741C

In China housing starts and property transactions have reached extreme lows. Have they reached bottom? thedailyshot.com/2022/06/20/fur… https://t.co/WPB5pWe15U

“To deny the downsides of Brexit on trade with the EU is to deny reality.” @iainmartin1 following the Pottery Barn Rule: You break it, you own it. ft.com/content/7a209a… https://t.co/3gfshOS6jL

Since 2016 UK business investment has stagnated in real terms and has failed to recover from the additional shock of 2020. ft.com/content/7a209a… https://t.co/OBqbLBDD4N

"Next year, according to the OECD think-tank, the UK will have the lowest growth in the G20, apart from sanctioned Russia.” Good this from @GeorgeWParker @ChrisGiles_ on how Brexit’s economic impact has become the great British taboo. ft.com/content/7a209a… https://t.co/bL7o0YMZ9M

"Deese said Joe Biden was working with Congress on legislation to lower costs including for prescription drugs and utilities.” More a sign of how limited the options are than a real answer. ft.com/content/17eac7… https://t.co/7GesQ2HN7A

When asked when the next recession will strike the US, 68% of US economists now think in 2023, a plurality in 1st half. ft.com/content/53fcbb… https://t.co/DKwzJp7xao

Germany’s finance minister Lindner has challenged the ECB over the spectre of bond market fragmentation in the eurozone, saying he did not see particular hazards in current market conditions. ft.com/content/aa61c9… https://t.co/jhqJvVUBUx

RT @JavierBlas: From Germany to China, the world is fighting the ongoing energy crisis exactly the same way it fought the 2nd oil crisis: w…

RT @toddntucker: With Petro in Colombia, Boric in Chile, Fernandez in Argentina, Arce in Bolivia, Xiomara in Honduras, and Lula in Brazil i…

RT @ScottDuncanWX: Extreme heat is now breaking long-standing all-time records in Germany 🇩🇪 Cottbus station in the northeast of the count…

RT @shannonrwatts: Every weekend there are shootings at malls in America that send people running for their lives – afraid in the public pl…

Since 2020 utility-scale energy storage in the US has more than tripled. S&P via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/tJNJBnyP31

Share of workers earning <2/3 of median wage in the US is almost 1/4 = amongst highest in the @OECD v. 8-11 % in Japan and New Zealand. Obviously a tricky measure but indicative of serious labour market inequality. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/mptNRKUrzl

“the national average interest rate for savings accounts is 0.07%.” At the same time, the one-year T-Bill yield is near 3%. A bank would have to work really hard not to mint money on NIM in this environment.” @Bankrate via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/b61NwdkLE3

Top Links #80 Waterloo, Kale Marx and Branko Milanović revisiting the Elephant on Chartbook adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-80…

Barring recession, 2023 may well see record oil consumption, but also a recovery in production -> moderation of excess demand and stabilization of stocks. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/oDAUaGzhNJ

If you want to know where deflationary pressures might come from, check out iron ore, which is dominated by demand from China especially for construction. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/wWXDVqTU7C

As Turkish consumers lose confidence they move their deposits out of lira. Erdogan’s measures managed to break that link in 2021 but now the slide has resumed. @alpinemacro via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/Xihk2mMXLS

RT @Sustainable2050: @adam_tooze -15% was Wednesday On Thursday, it was -35%, and on Friday, it was -50%: twitter.com/Reuters/status…

The Philly Fed’s manuf report is normally a good leading indicator of US corporate earnings. The signal it is sending right now is bleak. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/2DauCpPSO2

Is Chinese local government about to drive another surge of stimulus? The total social financing impulse is turning positive. Could be powerful, but impact would be muted by more lockdowns in the fall. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/sFFoz5T9Ce

Remarkably, the lockdowns of 2022 had a more dramatic impact on Chinese government finance than the original COVID shock of 2020. @Gavekal via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/YZtPVaSEZC

Italy, where gas supplies from Gazprom have dropped by 15 per cent, could activate an emergency plan to curtail gas use next week, including curbing supplies to some industrial users. ft.com/content/2da439… hindustannewshub.com/russia-ukraine… https://t.co/eiBcDtgEVc

The Russian moves to restrict gas supply to Europe have sent prices soaring by 60% in a week. Not yet at March levels but this is a critical time for rebuilding stores and may signal all out confrontation in future. @OilSheppard ft.com/content/2da439… https://t.co/VQjgdXbzRU

RT @DuncanWeldon: It’s the 18th June. So it’s time for this gif. https://t.co/iIyVqI3dLM

RT @COdendahl: How does #artillery work? I didn't really know, so glad our science team had a closer look. –> economist.com/science-and-te…

RT @CJFDillow: Should we try to reclaim the word "technocratic"? I've seen it used to mean a mindless value-free (& ideological) centrism.…

I just realized, thanks to this lovely perceptive tweet, that the Icarus myth also relates to my preoccupation with Geithner’s phrase about American power “defying gravity” …thank you @saihan_io twitter.com/saihan_io/stat…

Chinese household demand for new medium and long-term loans has crashed. TS Lombard via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/mKgs1Kxaf4

Chinese households are deleveraging for the first time since 2008. @bcaresearch Via @SoberLook thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/37SkXtw2JH

The US labour market responded to the COVID shock with a multi-million churn in firing, resignation and rehiring. thedailyshot.com/2022/06/17/us-… https://t.co/SKdpEDyYXQ