September 13, 2022
RT @jonathancoe: Ten years ago today, this grotesque book was published. It was written off as the fever dream of the Tory party's maveric…
RT @jonathancoe: Ten years ago today, this grotesque book was published. It was written off as the fever dream of the Tory party's maveric…
RT @kyleichan: My new article is out. China and India have large state bureaucracies dedicated to railway development. But the structure of…
RT @daraghjgrant: This class on Stuart Hall (@StuartHallFdn) is a new experiment for me. The challenge of capturing the sheer breadth of Ha…
For decades Germany bargained with Soviet Union and Russia for oil deliveries. This created a significant vulnerability. But did that "cheap" gas supercharge German exports? Color me skeptical. Chartbook Newsletter #150. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-15… https://t.co/imsvWLCkJP
@PhilippaSigl @Brad_Setser @benbawan @RobinBrooksIIF I link to the Eurostat series comparing national gas prices in the newsletter.
RT @mgoebel29: Illuminating article by @adam_tooze on why “cheap Russian gas" was not the secret to German export success. I would indeed…
RT @NewLeftEViews: «For the German manufacturing industry as a whole, energy costs amounted to 5.8 percent of gross value added.» Excellent…
RT @fxmacroguy: Go and read some good analysis instead of the perma-doom of fintwit and energytwit here 👇 Chartbook #150: Why "cheap Russi…
Chartbook #150 just dropped on "cheap Russian gas" and German exports competitiveness. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-15…
RT @BUPardeeSchool: In an appearance on @Bloomberg's "Odd Lots" podcast, #PardeeProf @PMehrling discusses the future of the global dollar s…
Is it not an astonishing irony that at this point in the Russo-Ukraine war, the ONLY gas pipeline carrying Russian gas West to Europe runs through Ukraine itself!!!!!! bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/zyr5NrrTqu
@wmilosz EXCELLENT …. completely in agreement with your formulation here. @t0nyyates @ClausVistesen this thread by Milosz is really well put.
Moscow has offered to sell oil to Indonesia at price that is 30 per cent lower than the international market rate, according to the country’s tourism minister. ft.com/content/36ae27… https://t.co/rNTp2C53Fy
Friday's EU meetings were an anti-climax. As @valentinapop says: "no plans under way for a big new EU bazooka" i.e. NextGen 2.0. But energy crisis bill already runs to €350bn = c. 2.5% of GDP. Can this be done on national balance sheets with taxes? ft.com/content/615358…
@ClausVistesen @RKemb @t0nyyates @AndrewSudmant As @UliVolz points out, @DanielGrosCEPS had this excellent takedown of the idea that Germany enjoyed some kind of "secret sauce"-competitive advantage due to "cheap Russian gas". project-syndicate.org/commentary/ger…
@ClausVistesen @RKemb @t0nyyates @AndrewSudmant Hi Claus, dont know whether you are a German-speaker, but this was my takedown of the new Sonderweg thesis last week in Berlin for the @BWBStiftung lecture youtube.com/watch?v=K80HOp…
@DanielaGabor @YannisDafermos @JoMicheII Yup but actually my point was less Fed-centric and more Wall Street-centric. I read you, Daniela, as aligning with @PMehrling brilliant reading of Kindleberger's view of the dollar system.
@RKemb @ClausVistesen @t0nyyates @AndrewSudmant One way to get a grip on this may be to compare Italy and Germany. Both have similar degrees of import dependence. What would we say that "cheap Russian gas" did for Italy?
RT @ClausVistesen: @RKemb @t0nyyates @adam_tooze @AndrewSudmant The idea that Germany, as a western economy, somehow uniquely sold its soul…
How important was "cheap" Russian gas to German industrial success pre 2022? 1. Dont take BASF's crisis lobbying at face value. 2. Check Eurostat figures for non-household gas prices. Show NO evidence for German cost advantage v. Rest of EU. appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?da… twitter.com/chickpeapostin…
@RoyCobby Precisely … a think a rather implausible claim in industrial economics i.e. "Germany gained a substantial cost advantage that explains its export success" gets loaded up with a bunch of other arguments, which Im sympathetic to but just dont follow.
@t0nyyates @AndrewSudmant Again … agreed on all this. What I am questioning is the wider claim that the "German model" was in an important way dependent on "cheap" Russian gas. Clearly now they are paying price for lack of diversification. But that is a different point.
RT @DanielaGabor: @adam_tooze @Cmmonwealth think derisking is an elaborate strategy of macro/sectoral governance normalised since 1980s, ra…
@AndrewSudmant @t0nyyates What is undisputed is that Germany got locked into Russian gas and that is now hurting them. What makes no sense to me is to claim that pre-2022 that lock-in earned them a really big competitive advantage.
@AndrewSudmant @t0nyyates Thanks @t0nyyates for your precise anatomy. All of which makes sense and none of which is what people normally think of, I think, when they say "Germany owes its export success to cheap Russian gas".
"Despite forecasts that the exchange rate will soon slide past Rmb7 per dollar for the first time in more than two years, few expect depreciation to match that of Japan’s yen, which has fallen by about one quarter" @KangHexin ft.com/content/f01586… https://t.co/YvTMqXXI35
@DanielaGabor @konings_martijn @benjlemoine HI @DanielaGabor thank you for these brilliant threads. I thought your idea of the Wall Street Consensus was so good I borrowed it to wrap the entire "dollar system". foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/12/fed…
Again and again you read that Ger business model was built on "cheap Russian gas". But, in what way is that true? Of course Ger imported a lot & situation now sucks. But before 2022, was Rus gas much cheaper than other gas? How much difference could that cost diff possibly make? twitter.com/jakluge/status…
RT @olan_mcevoy: If anybody is feeling perplexed by the current state of the United Kingdom, I couldn’t recommend this book more – a stunni…
RT @heimbergecon: German Bundesbank president Nagel's statements increasingly have the sound of shock therapy. Nagel argues for further agg…
This by @ntrickett16 on Ukrainian and Russian economies under war stress ogs-and-ofzs.ghost.io/bust-a-cap/ pairs very well with Chartbook Newsletter #149 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-14… https://t.co/WBl7KbaEV7
RT @Blake_Allen13: The Biden administration is going to announce bans on the export of semiconductors and chip-making tools to China in the…
RT @USAFacts: The IRS’s budget has remained about the same since the 1990s, despite processing more returns every year. Wondering who gets…
Price controls are a clumsy tool against inflation. But they make a lot of sense as a means to prevent social and political crises triggered by shocks in sectors with very particular demand and supply conditions. twitter.com/SamHLevey/stat…
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