ADAM TOOZE

If copper is the commodity with the econ phd, does the recent upturn suggest an EM recovery. @colbyLsmith investiga… https://t.co/gi4nfmHknK

"simplicity is not original; on the contrary, it is the structured whole which gives its meaning to the simple cate… https://t.co/8rL9q5VPSJ

Whatever shape the US may be in, the bald Eagle is doing well! In 1963 there were only 487 nesting pairs in mainlan… https://t.co/OLpybXBXm6

As the eurozone’s QE reaches high tide, the flow of european money into US debt reverses for the first time since 2… https://t.co/sOOsPt9P30

Lower-skilled, lower-earning workers who have the least resources to adjust are the most vulnerable to automation.… https://t.co/B7GzxXghzU

"Mexico folded under pressure, leaving Canada in the lurch — the target of unilateral tariffs — until Ottawa, too,… https://t.co/uskZRsZN2Q

Strikingly Turkey and Argentina, the current EM crisis cases, are in small group that saw debt/gdp fall since the c… https://t.co/Vf2AUo3Vyq

"could one at least diminish Trump’s symbolic victory in Nafta’s new name? If we can be allowed a little anagrammat… https://t.co/R3ksDZBp7w

This EM risk board by @NordeaMarkets has Chile’s risk level ahead of Turkey, and Israel level pegging. Hardly plau… https://t.co/ShQnC48gWN

"Turkey’s finance minister has blamed “opportunism and stockpiling” for a soaring rate of inflation that reached al… https://t.co/N4Qr98XsXV

Expansion of China’s semiconductor industry means it can now supply 1/3 of its huge consumption from domestic produ… https://t.co/18ekoSh9Cn

Cambridge University’s POLIS is pulling together a fantastic group of people involved in IR, theory and History. Fo… https://t.co/z0KNPX2fNG

"To be fair to Lebanon … Its finances have long defied logic and it has never defaulted on its debt, even when it… https://t.co/7Tl1abwDFN

"complexly-structurally-unevenly determined. I must admit, I preferred a shorter term: overdetermined” – Louis Alth… https://t.co/GwhR6FSbfa

Spanish banks need Turkey’s banks to stay solvent. @colbyLsmith dissects the @BIS_org data on bank entanglement wit… https://t.co/At1tC3hinz

American farmers are stockpiling soy in the hope that the trade war goes away and prices recover. @SoberLook… https://t.co/UR7HX8OySI

"the terms, … still fall short of providing Puerto Rico with a clear path back to debt sustainability” @Brad_Setser… https://t.co/XAXZ6kPTo5

It is not just the level of US gov debt issuance but the heavy reliance on short-term bills that is noteworthy abou… https://t.co/GiiwX2BTB1

That feeling when the excellent @Noahpinion recommends your feed and you gain 600 followers in a couple of hours! a… https://t.co/6SrnPgYTIH

Stealth stimulus? Trump’s infrastructure program? Relatively buoyant local budgets? Dumb luck? Ahead of 2018 midter… https://t.co/fRS0ovqApf

Growth in public construction in the US currently exceeds growth in private sector. Are we reaching peak of cycle?… https://t.co/aZ9lbh6jes

Slowdown in growth in wages in EM post-2008 was even more dramatic than in rich countries. Fascinating from IIF’s… https://t.co/1lDGNVfgiQ

Back to the 1980s corporate debt levels spiked in recessions along with default rates. Currently the debt level is… https://t.co/iXydGZcgaj

How badly would a hard landing scenario in which Chinese growth falls to 2% with significant financial squeeze impa… https://t.co/JtEUo1yD14

. @adam_tooze has noted that the bulk of foreign inflows into the US over the last five years have gone into corpor… https://t.co/dubcDG4a8m

If China grows more slowly, how much does that affect global commodity prices? ECB paper estimates: 5% drop for oil… https://t.co/t3KJF1Lr1C

There is $4 trillion in foreign investment in US corporate debt! @Gavekal @SoberLook As @Brad_Setser has argued thi… https://t.co/rFqSCSAFrc

Exposure to China measured in terms of value added absorbed by Chinese final demand, varies from 10% for Taiwan to… https://t.co/5c5Po6xV9n

Here comes Erdogan’s recession: Turkish industrial production and PMI plunging at rates not seen since 2008.… https://t.co/wPEPq4v3xe

Though China is slowing down its greater size means that it now accounts for c. 30% of global growth.… https://t.co/wv95O6WvVw

The gear shift in China’s economy in early 2017 comes out clearly from this graph: After the binge from 2008-2010 a… https://t.co/phYLvqWM5u

Japan, Spain and now China have all had ratios of credit to the non-private sector to GDP topping 200%. It hasn’t e… https://t.co/soPc58qwo2