ADAM TOOZE

So we are now in spectacularly dangerous territory: Brave Ukrainian resistance frustrates Russian initial attack -> Kiev refuses humiliating negotiations. Russia about to ramp up

Fantastic thread this on the adaptation of Iranian economy to dramatic sanctions regime. Much appreciated @yarbatman twitter.com/yarbatman/stat…

@GioFaggionato Source?

Still nothing in the US statement specifically on energy. The financial net is comprehensive here, as mapped in Chartbook #87. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-87… BUT are they still

OK this is true escalation. Both EU and US cutting key banks out of SWIFT, blocking Russian central bank reserves within reach and targeting oligarchs.

RT @suzannelynch1: White House also makes statement – says “selected” Russian banks removed from the #SWIFT system. Details here: https://t…

EU seems determined to stop use of Russian central bank assets for sanctions-busting. This is a next level move by EU. The more extreme scenario

As @Tagliapietra_S spells out: SWIFT by itself does not end energy payments. Nor do central bank sanctions. Though both may provoke Russians into cutting off

Wow … it seems EU IS really ramping up. Russian Central bank assets ARE in play. For possible ramifications check out Chartbook #87 adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-87… twitter.com/KiraTaylor15/s…

RT @kopalo: After the African statements at UNSC, the shameful mistreatment of Africans fleeing Ukraine at EU borders is a slap in the face…

@jsuedekum @bundesbank That press conference is going to be big.

@jsuedekum Thanks Jens. We are all learning fast, aren’t we. Absolutely horrifying!

RT @henryfarrell: This is a tiny and purely personal point, but it is very strange to move from a world of what's-that?/¯_(ツ)_/¯ about SW…

RT @JavierBlas: @TonyFratto Full banking sanctions (without general licenses), secondary sanctions, plus sectorial sanctions to oil and gas…

Sanctions on Russia’s central bank would be a huge escalatory step in the sanctions war. @Griboyedov1 is doing great sleuthing here. Should have references in

@MonaAli_NY_US I entirely agree … yesterday I thought I knew where we were. Today I feel that may be an illusion.

@shah8comment I think you may be right. Is this going to be another moment for common EU fiscal mechanisms to kick in: energy for Germany/italy/trade

Coming out of world of macrofinance and constrained geopolitical contest, it is natural to see big fx reserves as a useful financial cushion, for Russia

RT @henryfarrell: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-87… Very helpful summary from @adam_tooze . This by @esaravalle (who is quoted in Adam’s piece) provi…

Is the sanctions debate moving on from the correspondent banking/SWIFT debate to even more radical steps? Action against Russian central bank? Stops on oil and

@UliKnkel @edwardfishman @SonyKapoor @GeneralTheorist You are most welcome. Been a hive mind effort these last few days.

@ntrickett16 @IikkaKorhonen @BuddyYakov @jeff_hawn Thanks Nick … hugely appreciated.

Are we on the brink of all out financial war with Russia? Chartbook #87 just dropped. An effort to take stock of the sanctions debate

RT @CampbellMacD: UAE-mouthpiece The National has ordered its foreign staff not to refer to Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an invasion. Co…

@Frances_Coppola @doobeedoo2 Yup. But SWIFT is nevertheless a step. Beyond that the really hard decisions are on correspondent banking and energy.

RT @tom_nuttall: Not just enabling third party deliveries, but now direct arms supplies too. Extraordinary shift.

Admirable restraint @christogorev but the devil is in the detail. The real test is how far they go on ending purchases of Russian oil and

RT @grudkev: Wow, Germany has finally agreed to send weapons to Ukraine. Putin managed to cross everyone's red line.

RT @SFischer_EU: “The Russian invasion marks a turning point. It is our duty to support #Ukraine to the best of our ability in defending ag…

SWIFT/correspondence sanctions will cause havoc in Russian financial system. But the crucial question, as @edwardfishman @jfriedlanderdc insist, is how far you are actually willing to

EU plans to cut emissions 55% by 2030 -> lowers gas demand from 392 bcm in 2030 to 315 bcm = enough to halve dependence

@analerevenga This, again and again, is the question.

“We are working flat out on how to limit the collateral damage of decoupling from SWIFT in such a way that it affects the right

SWIFT is on the table now. Germans have shifted position. Italians too. French finance minister calls it a ‘financial nuclear weapon’ bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/jOZ5L430s5

@jfriedlanderdc @edwardfishman @AmbDanFried @brianoftoole @Levitt_Matt @JCZarate1 @greenwald00 @dantannNYC @RosenbergEliz @katecbauer @NeilBhatiya @KharonData @reziemba @HagarChemali Thank you Julia. So far, it is right to say isn’t

Oil surging to $120 would add 1.3 % to the transitory inflation peak in US. By early 2023 forecast from @terminal is for 2.3% bloomberg.com/news/articles/…