Global economics will never be the same—but not in the ways you might think.

For NATO and the West’s relations with Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is clearly a historic turning point. The atrocities committed in occupied Ukrainian communities mark a ghastly breach of international law. But does Putin’s war mark a break in the development of the world economy?

Some have gone so far as to speculate that this war might mark a turning point in the history of globalization, on a par with 1914. Conflict and lack of trust, they surmise, will undercut investment and trade and unleash a general retreat from international interdependence. Others see Russia’s efforts to open channels for trade with India and China as harbingers of a new multipolar order.

It is very early to be making such prognoses. So far, the most remarkable thing about the war is, after all, Russia’s military frustration. Given Russia’s performance, it is far from obvious why anyone, even those once counted as Putin’s allies, would want to associate themselves more closely with his regime.

What demands more urgent attention than long-range prognosis is the shock wave that the war has triggered across the world economy, starting with the combatants, the wider region of Eastern and Central Europe, and global energy and food markets. One lasting story of this war could be the way that Europe uses it to launch its next stage of integration.

Read the full article at Foreign Policy